snowstormcanuck Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Since NCEP's down, let's all have a thoughtful discussion on extrapolating the 48hr RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 9z SREF mean jumped an inch at YYZ to 4". Disregarding the progressive/sheared GFS, I think 3-5" is a good prelim. call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 9z SREF mean jumped an inch at YYZ to 4". Disregarding the progressive/sheared GFS, I think 3-5" is a good prelim. call. I am liking the same call for here, obviously if the NAM/Ukie/Euro are right it could be more, but 3-5" is a good early call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I am liking the same call for here, obviously if the NAM/Ukie/Euro are right it could be more, but 3-5" is a good early call. Any thoughts on the GFS? I'm prepared to toss it but just on account of it being an outlier. Don't have any meteorology to back me up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 LOT seemed too. indeed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 SREF plumes keep bouncing around for MKE....it was up to a mean near 6" yesterday and now down to 3.6". 00z Euro ensembles looked slightly wetter compared to 12z....virtually all members show over .35" and a quite a few show over .5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Any thoughts on the GFS? I'm prepared to toss it but just on account of it being an outlier. Don't have any meteorology to back me up. Compared to the other models, the GFS is usually the driest at this stage, and once we get closer it usually lines up with the other models. Track wise it maybe on par, but this qpf problem has always been the case, atleast for this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 SREF plumes keep bouncing around for MKE....it was up to a mean near 6" yesterday and now down to 3.6". 00z Euro ensembles looked slightly wetter compared to 12z....virtually all members show over .35" and a quite a few show over .5" around 2" at ORD....i'm really struggling to get excited about this one...just smells like 1-2" of slop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Any thoughts on the GFS? I'm prepared to toss it but just on account of it being an outlier. Don't have any meteorology to back me up. Too progressive, I would toss based upon that, add in the fact that all other models are more amplified and moist. A good number of the ensembles are stronger too. Compared to the other models, the GFS is usually the driest at this stage, and once we get closer it usually lines up with the other models. Track wise it maybe on par, but this qpf problem has always been the case, atleast for this season. This as well, notice how dry the GFS was on previous runs, it is already trending toward wetter solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 around 2" at ORD....i'm really struggling to get excited about this one...just smells like 1-2" of slop Or 6 inches of clay. We've entered a new season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Or 6 inches of clay. We've entered a new season. GFS has been the best model all winter...it says non-event. Won't get excited until it budges (12z didn't) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 12z GGEM is almost all snow for LAF with the Monday system. Not buying it, but that'd be cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 GFS has been the best model all winter...it says non-event. Won't get excited until it budges (12z didn't) There has been no best model (a clear one anyway) all winter. Recently the GEM has been quite good on the whole, but the NAM, GFS and Euro have all had their brief moments as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radioman Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 GFS has been the best model all winter...it says non-event. Won't get excited until it budges (12z didn't) GFS had 6 inches for the big east coast storm in DC 24 hours prior to the event. Some places ended up with 20+. Just saying... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 12z UKie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 An interesting note about the 12z GEM...it now has 14 hours of snow locally with the Monday storm...previously it was a 9-hour thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 looks like the NAM took a step towards the best model all winter (GFS) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 looks like the NAM took a step towards the best model all winter (GFS) Geez, give it a rest with the best model BS. You're better than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 No kidding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 people already getting testy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 15z RAP for today. Maybe Cyclone can pull off a couple inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 looks like the NAM took a step towards the best model all winter (GFS) http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/ I guess these model verification stats are full of it when they say the Euro is the best? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 The GFS has gotten wetter as the event nears and the NAM has gotten drier as the event nears. And this is different from our last 20 storms how? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radioman Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 The GFS has gotten wetter as the event nears and the NAM has gotten drier as the event nears. And this is different from our last 20 storms how? And the NAM still has .4-.6 QPF across IL and WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I'm fine with the models trending towards the GFS. Obviously what the GGEM/NAM/UKMET showed would be preferrable, but I'd rather know right now if we're going to get another non-event or more nuisance snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJSnowLover Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 It's been the GFS vs. Euro/UkMet/GEM/Etc lately; no matter how "great" it's been, by the numbers, it's the outlier at this moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 people already getting testy Testy? I'm having the time (winter) of my life. Couldn't be happier. But I know you're trying to illicit arguments over a non-proveable fact. So why do it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Testy? I'm having the time (winter) of my life. Couldn't be happier. But I know you're trying to illicit arguments over a non-proveable fact. So why do it? We've had countless threads full of Euro bashing all winter (a quick search shows multiple posts to that effect from everyone in this thread) and all the sudden everyone is back to riding it? Seems kind of weenie to me, but it's no big deal. I'll back out of this thread and let you guys be. 2.8" final call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 We've had countless threads full of Euro bashing all winter (a quick search shows multiple posts to that effect from everyone in this thread) and all the sudden everyone is back to riding it? Seems kind of weenie to me, but it's no big deal. I'll back out of this thread and let you guys be. 2.8" final call Part of the reason we have been bashing the Euro so much are the built in high expectations due to past successes. GFS bashing hasn't been very common since expectations are rather low in comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJSnowLover Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Quick precip totals for this area on 12z models:NAM: .40-.45GEM: .60-.70GFS: .20-.30UKMET: Around .50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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