blizzardof96 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 NAM almost closes off the 534 dam contour at H5 at 60.Reminds me of the Dec 18/19 2008 system. The trough off the west coast is progged to be weaker and the H7 low may actually close off this time, which didnt occur with the former example. The H5 low track looks like a pretty good match, although i am concerned that the vort begins to weaker once it gets east of ORD.19/12/08 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Reminds me of the Dec 18/19 2008 system. The trough off the west coast is progged to be weaker and the H7 low may actually close off this time, which didnt occur with the former example. The H5 low track looks like a pretty good match, although i am concerned that the vort begins to weaker once it gets east of ORD. image.jpg 19/12/08 image.jpg This storm looks much more impressive at H7/H5 than the December 2008 example. Similar favourable track though. Too bad it's a quick mover with no real Gulf connection, otherwise it could have been a bigger dog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radioman Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 SREF plumes jumped from 9z. Almost +2 inches on the mean everywhere. Showing about 4-5 for Chicago and 6-8 in some places in S. WI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 18z 4km NAM is super juiced Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 1/4 mile heavy snow at Cedar Rapids and Iowa City now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I got about 1.1" last hour. For a while the small flakes dropped the visibility to no more than 1/6 mile. That appears to be it for the best snow. It's a real quick hitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Still virga-ing here. Should be about to start though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 LAF zone for Monday has it covered pretty well. Washingtons Birthday: Cloudy. Chance of snow until midday... Then snow and sleet...possibly mixed with freezing rain in the afternoon. Light snow accumulations. Some ice accumulation possible. Highs in the lower 30s. South winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 18z 4km NAM is super juiced Eh, not really... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 LAF zone for Monday has it covered pretty well. Washingtons Birthday: Cloudy. Chance of snow until midday... Then snow and sleet...possibly mixed with freezing rain in the afternoon. Light snow accumulations. Some ice accumulation possible. Highs in the lower 30s. South winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Ha, they should show an image of a kitchen sink in the little forecast icon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 LAF zone for Monday has it covered pretty well. Washingtons Birthday: Cloudy. Chance of snow until midday... Then snow and sleet...possibly mixed with freezing rain in the afternoon. Light snow accumulations. Some ice accumulation possible. Highs in the lower 30s. South winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. George and Denzel must share a b-day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 15, 2014 Author Share Posted February 15, 2014 Eh, not really... Actually it is... 0.50-0.70" QPF across a good portion of the LOT CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 SN/+SN on southwest side of Springfield currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Went from nothing to a high end light snow in less than 10 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 LOT on Monday: OVERALL...THIS SLOWER AND STRONGER SOLUTION COULD FAVOR MORE OF A SNOW EVENT FOR MUCH OF MY AREA RATHER THAN ICE. I CONTINUED THE TREND OF MENTIONING ONLY SNOW FAR NORTH AND CONTINUED THE WINTER MIX FOR MY SOUTHERN AREAS. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SNOW AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING AND VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE THREAT FOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS IS NOT ZERO...BUT IT APPEARS TO BE DECREASING...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WHERE IT APPEARS THE COLUMN MAY REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR MAINLY SNOW. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY STILL IN PLACE WITH THIS SYSTEM...I HAVE CHOSEN NOT TO ISSUE A WATCH AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 LOT going bullish, I like it. 6"+ and favoring slower Euro/GEM/UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radioman Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 MKE AFD AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIESTO THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z MON AND THEN CONTINUE ACROSS ILON MON. THE MODELS DIFFERS ON THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OFCYCLOGENESIS BUT EITHER WAY WE WILL SEE AN IMPRESSIVE ROUND OFDEEP WARM..MOIST ADVECTION AND PVA MON AM. THE FAST SPEED OF THE SYSTEMSHOULD KEEP SNOW ACCUMS IN THE 3-5 INCH RANGE...AND BELOW WINTERSTORM WARNING CRITERIA EVEN IF THE CYCLOGENESIS BECOMES MOREFAVORABLE IN ENHANCING THE LIFT. A WINTER WX ADVISORY WILL LIKELYBE NEEDED FOR MONDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 One thing that we can say is that the threat of plain rain in any quantity is looking less and less likely. Pretty remarkable as this looked like a safe rainstorm for us as of a couple days ago (outside of perhaps a brief shot of mix at onset). I'm optimistic based on model performance this winter. The colder, slightly southeast solutions have been the pattern all winter. No reason for it to change now. We've got snow records to set! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Regarding the steep lapse rates that LOT mentioned for Monday, you can see it on the skew-Ts especially above 600 mb or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Very impressed with the quick progression with this little wave. Half hour ago nothing, and now low-end moderate. Solid dusting already. Flakes are small, but pouring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 GFS still not budging with its weaker/progressive storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Actually it is... 0.50-0.70" QPF across a good portion of the LOT CWA. 1. Some of that is tainted with today/tomorrow's clipper. 2. Most of the other models show the same thing. "Super juiced" implied that it would be much wetter than the other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 1. Some of that is tainted with today/tomorrow's clipper. 2. Most of the other models show the same thing. "Super juiced" implied that it would be much wetter than the other guidance. Lol tainted with what, 0.05" liquid?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Lol tainted with what, 0.05" liquid?... Taint is taint. Either way, it's still not any more "super juiced" than the other non-GFS guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 15, 2014 Author Share Posted February 15, 2014 1. Some of that is tainted with today/tomorrow's clipper. 2. Most of the other models show the same thing. "Super juiced" implied that it would be much wetter than the other guidance. There's <0.08" from the current clipper. And not really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 GFS still not budging with its weaker/progressive storm. Somewhere ALK. Laughs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 15, 2014 Author Share Posted February 15, 2014 Taint is taint. Either way, it's still not any more "super juiced" than the other non-GFS guidance. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 lol lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I finished today's event with 2.5" from 0.20" liquid. As expected, the tiny to small flakes kept the ratio down at 13 to 1. Still, 2.5" ain't bad for a 3-hour event. I haven't seen tiny flakes pour down like that in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Good solid snow last half hour or so. Probably racked up close to a half inch by now. Flake size got better too, but nothing too crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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