A-L-E-K Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 This one is not to be trusted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 H5 energy is sharper, slower and more phased in on the 12z NAM. The two vort maxes phase completely by hour 34. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Nice snowfall ongoing here this morning. Pretty and calm, not a hint of wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 NAM looks drier over NE IL again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 DGZ looking pretty deep over the GTA during the heights of the storm(~175-200mb), although it does look like the strongest lift/omega values are going to be placed below this zone. Upsloping with an ESE flow should work in our favour, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 NAM looks drier over NE IL again correct, down to a ~2.5" hit...probably a little low but the GFS is reeling this one in like a boss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 correct, down to a ~2.5" hit...probably a little low but the GFS is reeling this one in like a boss.I think were down too if we can't get more then 6 inches who wants it. But I'm going to follow the winter trend which is over performance models aside.Heck, flakes are falling from the sky now when sunshine was expected. And my midweek warm up has basically been trashed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 DGZ looking pretty deep over the GTA during the heights of the storm(~175-200mb), although it does look like the strongest lift/omega values are going to be placed below this zone. Upsloping with an ESE flow should work in our favour, though. Looks pretty sweet. Lock her in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 correct, down to a ~2.5" hit...probably a little low but the GFS is reeling this one in like a boss. The GFS Ensembles have gone from every one of them showing 0.10-0.25 QPF for this event, to most showing 0.25"QPF+ and a couple showing around 0.50" QPF, so if anything the GFS has capitulated more toward the other guidance, though the GEM was obviously too wet for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 The GFS Ensembles have gone from every one of them showing 0.10-0.25 QPF for this event, to most showing 0.25"QPF+ and a couple showing around 0.50" QPF, so if anything the GFS has capitulated more toward the other guidance, though the GEM was obviously too wet for awhile. I think ultimately they are working to a common ground. But the GFS has always implied a low end progressive solution . Which seems where we're headed..2-4 vs. 6-8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 i'm comfortable with an SREF/ECM blend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 seem to be in one of the worst locations for yet another.. .couple-2.5" inches seems like a good call. Second weekend in a row with morning weenie snow and blue skys..pretty. prob will be in the top 3 of what i remember this winter by. snow already just srated melting off the roof. thought the neighbors dog was pissing on my smoker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 I think were down too if we can't get more then 6 inches who wants it. But I'm going to follow the winter trend which is over performance models aside. Heck, flakes are falling from the sky now when sunshine was expected. And my midweek warm up has basically been trashed. should be a really nice (plowable) quick hitter which are always fun...but the .5-.7 solutions being tossed around yesterday were out to lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 daytime nuisance event so that gets bonus points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radioman Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 should be a really nice (plowable) quick hitter which are always fun...but the .5-.7 solutions being tossed around yesterday were out to lunch. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radioman Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 should be a really nice (plowable) quick hitter which are always fun...but the .5-.7 solutions being tossed around yesterday were out to lunch. RGEM is a Chicago hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 09z SREF mean for DTW remains relatively consistent, now at 5.4". There's still a decent spread. Highest member shows 8.6" while the lowest member shows 2.9". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Grande hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Final call for Detroit is 3-5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 LAF will get more than here lol.. this was showing rain here at one time. What a LAFhable winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 RGEM is a Chicago hit. that does not show .5-.7 like some models were showing yesterday, so i'm not sure what point you're trying to make Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 LAF will get more than here lol doubtful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 12z NAM wetter north and west. Says DLL will be the winner with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 hab jack in his eyes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 12z NAM wetter north and west. Says DLL will be the winner with this one. looks like a spread the wealth low end moderate stat padder for most of the sub Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 doubtful sucker hole here.. it will be like in spring and summer where heavies comes to die. Congrats West/NW/south/east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 seem to be in one of the worst locations for yet another.. .couple-2.5" inches seems like a good call. Second weekend in a row with morning weenie snow and blue skys..pretty. prob will be in the top 3 of what i remember this winter by. snow already just srated melting off the roof. thought the neighbors dog was pissing on my smoker. Classic. Bowme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 LAF will get more than here lol.. this was showing rain here at one time. What a LAFhable winter. I don't know about that. P-type still very much up in the air for here. that does not show .5-.7 like some models were showing yesterday, so i'm not sure what point you're trying to make I think he's saying it's still got more QPF than the best model in the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 RGEM is weird with its max QPF placement. Well south of the mid level low track. SREF mean steady at 4" for YYZ. They've done a great job this winter and I see no reason not to ride 'em. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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