Radioman Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 that does not show .5-.7 like some models were showing yesterday, so i'm not sure what point you're trying to make Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 LAF will get more than here lol.. this was showing rain here at one time. What a LAFhable winter. 3" as an absolute floor for MKE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 I think he's saying it's still got more QPF than the best model in the world. i always ride the second tier model that gives me the most snow, so RGEM or bust! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 3" as an absolute floor for MKE. sounds right. mean just under 4"...modest cluster under 3 with a screw job member under 2, big dog of 6+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radioman Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 i always ride the second tier model that gives me the most snow, so RGEM or bust! you would think with a season you had, you would be more optimistic and not trust one of the worst models the last month or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 3" as an absolute floor for MKE. I'd be cool with that.. just not feeling this one here.. would love to reach the grande end of the advisory for a little extra cheese depth before the melt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Yeah, should be a solid event for MKE. No chance LAF beats them in this event. 9z plumes up to 2.4" for LAF...but p-type questions remain, as expected. I think I like 2.0" and some freezing rain for here. Should be a nice "minor" mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radioman Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 I'd be cool with that.. just not feeling this one here.. would love to reach the grande end of the advisory for a little extra cheese depth before the melt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 I'd be cool with that.. just not feeling this one here.. would love to reach the grande end of the advisory for a little extra cheese depth before the melt. Gonna be a lame melt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Gonna be a lame melt. Won't be "lame" here. If the potential heavy rains materialize... 12z RGEM keeps it 95% snow here with tomorrow's event, but it's close. As usual, go Canada! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 you would think with a season you had, you would be more optimistic and not trust one of the worst models the last month or so. Not sure what my season total and optimism (lol) has to do with analyzing the trends making a call...feel free to make your own instead of just posting GIFs (i already have a stalker here who does that). SREF are pretty clear on a 2-5" event for Chicago (they've done well all winter with big and little dogs) and it's a solution supported by the GFS which despite ticking up in intensity has remained consistent and probably spot on with a very progressive short duration system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Looks pretty sweet. Lock her in. If ratio's are as nice as COBB data is indicating (14:1 mean) we could be in for a nice surprise. Remaning skeptical at this point because omega values AOB -0.2 are locked below 850mb where thermals are more in the -6 to -11c range. The 3-5" range looks golden IMO although maybe NAM cobb scores a coup with the 6"+ amounts its been spitting out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radioman Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Not sure what my season total and optimism (lol) has to do with analyzing the trends making a call...feel free to make your own instead of just posting GIFs (i already have a stalker here who does that). SREF are pretty clear on a 2-5" event for Chicago (they've done well all winter with big and little dogs) and it's a solution supported by the GFS which despite ticking up in intensity has remained consistent and probably spot on with a very progressive short duration system. How can it be "consistent" and "ticking up" at the same time? The globals were too wet, the GFS was too dry and they are meeting in the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 I guess I'll go with 2-4" here. The NAM indicates about that much, and even though the GFS Ensembles are getting juicier, have to temper expectations given the reality of this nickel and dime winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radioman Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 GFS with 4-5 across S. WI lining up with pretty much all the other models and is actually wetter than the NAM now. 3-4 across Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 12z GFS looks a little better for MKE and ORD. Colder for LAF too, versus its 0z run. 3" or so of snow for here on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 The differences between the 4km NAM and the RGEM is pretty ridiculous around here. The former has a 0.5-0.6" max over the golden horseshoe while the RGEM barely skims 0.15" of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 The differences between the 4km NAM and the RGEM is pretty ridiculous around here. The former has a 0.5-0.6" max over the golden horseshoe while the RGEM barely skims 0.15" of QPF. Yeah, I'm not sure why the RGEM displaces the QPF so far to the south. This is not a setup where you'd see a lot of juice in the warm sector. Gulf is closed so it's not going to be fueling a low level jet on the low's eastern flank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 12z Uncle backed off a bit. Though seems it's been the wettest all along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 12z Uncle backed off a bit. Though seems it's been the wettest all along. Link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Final call for Detroit is 3-5". Looks solid, maybe a couple isolated spots up to 6", a Wyandotte jackpot special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Link? 12 hour increments via Plymouth: http://vortex.plymouth.edu/make.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 12 hour increments via Plymouth: http://vortex.plymouth.edu/make.html 2:16 12z UK 24.gif 2:16 12z uk 36.gif 2:16 12z UK 48.gif I think the previous runs had 0.50"+ numbers into WI, so that's considerably drier and weaker. Pretty much GEM-esque. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 seem to be in one of the worst locations for yet another.. .couple-2.5" inches seems like a good call. Second weekend in a row with morning weenie snow and blue skys..pretty. prob will be in the top 3 of what i remember this winter by. snow already just srated melting off the roof. thought the neighbors dog was pissing on my smoker. Haha. Noticed a lot of puddles on the roads yesterday at peak heating. MKX graphic for this coming event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 A solid inch from the snowfall this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 B/W maps...but 12z GGEM looks a little lamer too. And "highest" QPF cuts through central/southern IL and IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 NAM and GFS both showing around 0.3" precip for QCA. Euro close to 0.5". Guess I'll go with a general 3-5" for here, but starting to think 3-4" is probably the way to go. Looks like about 5-6hrs of good snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 The depiction of the 500mb trough looks so much better compared to 24hrs ago. The trough actually begins to go negative tilt...too bad its too strung out and doesn't close off until east of the region. And for those of us in S WI were sitting very good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 The depiction of the 500mb trough looks so much better compared to 24hrs ago. The trough actually begins to go negative tilt...too bad its too strung out and doesn't close off until east of the region. And for those of us in S WI were sitting very good. Pretty much the gist of our problem. If it's any consolation, the northern stream wave still hasn't been sampled (it won't be until the 00z runs tonight). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTown Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 3.2" final call for Madison WI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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