Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 any word on the GGEM?coming out as we type.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 any word on the GGEM? b&w only out to 72…looks good so far. 1008 in se Georgia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 How do you know already? meteocentre isn't out yet and Plymouth only goes to 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 90 percent of the time a benchmark track hammers Long Island and my area sees barely anything or a lot less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Ah that site... thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Ggem is a nice hit...not 12z but comes up coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 hr 84 ggem on B&W is 994….obv you would not see that 966 again lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 How do you know already? meteocentre isn't out yet and Plymouth only goes to 72 Ask zwyts he has the mid-atlantic covered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Ah that site... thanks Yea and that site gives me a migraine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Ggem is nice hit for mid atl folks but seems dry on the left side of the low this run as it reaches the bm (or just outside). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Ask zwyts he has the mid-atlantic covered You can't take him to seriously, we always appreciate your input down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 How do you know already? meteocentre isn't out yet and Plymouth only goes to 72 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&carte=1021&ech=6&archive=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Ggem is nice hit for mid atl folks but seems dry on the left side of the low this run as it reaches the bm (or just outside). Looks to be a possible trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Great last few pages with some awesome input from the pros. Question, based on your "what if" scenario: is there any capability to run what I'd call "future state ensembles," i.e., running the GFS ensembles out 24 hours and taking the ensemble run with the strongest southern vort on the GFS (as you suggested in your what if) and then inputting a new set of "initial conditions 24 hours out" and then letting the run go out a few days, just to see if one would end up with a new "future ensemble mean" that is similar to the NAM (or some other model) at 84 hours? Not sure what that would show with regard to the actual reality of what will happen, but it would be at least interesting to see if different models with similar starting points (24 hours into the future) would produce similar output at, say 84 hours. Unfortunately it is difficult enough to try and run numerical models based on current initial atmospheric states as is (hence exactly why we use ensembles). I do not know of any research efforts being done into running models with initial conditions anticipated 24 hours out in advance. However, I am assuming that some of the ensembles are running initial states currently that are taking into account different perturbations in that GL disturbance as is that would theoretically have the downstream influences on it that we are hoping to look for. Thanks, figured it was a low probability that people were modeling "what if" future scenarios off of partial results for a given model run, but it does seem like a cool idea to see the sensitivity of the divergence of models to specific conditions at various points in the evolution of the model's output. But I see what you're saying, to a degree, in that we're already seeing divergence from the actual initial conditions across multiple models - and I imagine it's not like there's computing power to spare - plus, as an academic exercise, this would be relatively easy to do in hindcast mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Ggem is nice hit for mid atl folks but seems dry on the left side of the low this run as it reaches the bm (or just outside). we are ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 About how much snow does this GGEM run show for our area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 There's over 3 days left so all the details will get sorted out, but there's no guarantee of anything right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Just a quick comment about the 0z NAM in case it wasn't mentioned. Despite the impressive mid and upper level setup, this is a fairly quick hitting burst of heavy frontside precip. At hour 84 you can really see the precip on the NW quadrant gets squashed. This is similar to the 12z Euro depiction that the best precip is well out ahead of the SLP and wraparound is light Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Should probably wait until 0z tomorrow no matter what anything shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Should probably wait until 0z tomorrow no matter what anything showsyou mean tues? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 0z ggem http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Edit: you might need to change the date Feb 10th..0z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Its about that time fellas. Anyone awake for the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I always wait for the ECM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I always wait for the ECM Lol, i just got in from plowing and salting. Perfect timing ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kborne Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Its about that time fellas. Anyone awake for the Euro? I am wide awake..but I am just a lurker ( I guess)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I always stay up for the Euro when there's a decent chance of a snowstorm. In fact, as I said earlier today, when I was out of the house from 1-4 pm, I knew the Euro had blown up when I got back at 4, simply because there were 5 new pages of posts - when the Euro tanks, it's one page and done, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I always stay up for the Euro when there's a decent chance of a snowstorm. In fact, as I said earlier today, when I was out of the house from 1-4 pm, I knew the Euro had blown up when I got back at 4, simply because there were 5 new pages of posts - when the Euro tanks, it's one page and done, lol. Yea, the same here. When I am gone for a bit, I always know by the pages. Funny how this board operates..LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 During the afternoon, people started Euro PBP at 5 after. The fact that no one is saying anything must be a sign that its a bad run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Euro is a tucked in 988 bomb @ 96 off cape may Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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