user13 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Slightly more of a neutral tilt vs more of a negative tilt through 54 Staring to go negative @ 57 but with a little less digging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Starting to make the turn @ 69, a little slower than 0z so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 If you are west of the river , go buy bread . KNYC east , really close to the OP . The control is horrible for the coast . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Incoming @ 78, the surface low is is more consolidated this run. the kicker is a little more east so the low has ticked east. Also the NW precip shield is very tight. The low placement looks similar to the euro esm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Mt. Holly going with "probable snowstorm." And even if there is a changeover near the coast or even inland to I-95, it will come after a nice front end thump of snow. Looks like a fairly classic nor'easter with wind gusts up to 45 mph at the coast - and we know what that means if it's snow at the time... WEDNESDAY NIGHT - MIDDAY THURSDAY...PROBABLY A SNOWSTORM. TRACKSTILL UNCERTAIN SO THIS 330 AM DETERMINISTIC FCST WILL HAVEADJUSTMENTS. THE MIXED PRECIP WORDING INDICATES UNCERTAINTY ANDALSO SPEAKS OF WARMING ALOFT. THE SFC HIGH IS ON THE EAST SIDE OFTHIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...A BAD SIGN FOR AN EASTWARD TRACK WHICHMEANS A WARMER WESTWARD SOLN IS STILL POSSIBLE...AT LEAST FOR I95SEWD.SINCE THERE IS SO MUCH COLD AIR IN PLACE TO START...THAT SHOULDALLOW SNOW MOST OF THE AREA FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS WITH A SNOWTO RAIN SITUATION EVOLVING NORTHWARD..AT LEAST FOR THE COASTALPLAIN. NE WIND SHOULD GUST 20 TO 30 MPH EXCEPT POTENTIALLY45 MPH ALONG THE COAST.STORM TRACK AND DETAILS OF SNOW AMOUNTS VS RAIN ETC TO BE MOREACCURATELY DETERMINED WITH TIME.A SNOW MAP...PRELIM IDEA OF OUR EXPECTATIONS THROUGH 7AM THURSDAYWILL POST AROUND 530 AM ALONG WITH A FBOOK NOTE AND TWEET. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane11 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Either way, exciting potential coming midweek. (btw, excited to be a new member on this forum!) :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane11 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 UPTON @ 4:22AM: CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ON A COASTAL STORM BRINGING A MODERATE TOHEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE CWA WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...AND SO BUMPEDPOP UP TO CATEGORICAL FOR WED NIGHT-THU AND LIKELY IN SOME SPOTS FORTHU EVENING...BUT THERE ARE STILL QUESTIONS AS TO PRECIPAMTS/TYPES...AND THE AXIS OF MAX QPF/SNOWFALL. TRIED TO SMOOTH OUTSOME OF THESE DIFFERENCES WITH A 10/00Z ECMWF AND 09/12Z ECMWFBLEND...WITH A MORE OFFSHORE TRACK AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOWESPECIALLY INLAND. THE 00Z ECMWF IS WETTER AND WARMER...WITH A GOODDEAL OF SNOWFALL BEFORE P-TYPE EVEN BECOMES AN ISSUE ONTHU...CHANGING TO MIXED WINTRY PRECIP FOR NYC METRO AND COASTALCT...AND EITHER RAIN OR A WINTRY MIX AT THE COAST. THE 12Z ECMWF ISCOLDER...WITH AN ALL SNOW EVENT EXCEPT FOR ERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CTWHERE A RAIN/SNOW MIX COULD OCCUR...BUT LESS WET. ATTM USED MODELBLEND SFC WET-BULB TEMPS AS AN INDICATOR OF THE RAIN/SNOWLINE...BRINGING A RAIN/SNOW MIX MAINLY INTO CENTRAL/ERN LONG ISLANDAND SE DURING THE DAY ON THU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 GFS is west of 0z though 75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Finally a nice hit, looks like all snow for nyc. The kicker is weaker this run, but it also shows the NW side of the precip being tight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane11 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Awesome, GFS is caving (earlier than I thought it would) lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Good trends past 24 hours. Btw the nam looks a little like the ggem from yesterday but alot weaker slp obviously. Bigtime ccb ownage though with lots more to follow post 84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Surprised no one mentioned that the euro closes off @H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Good trends past 24 hours. Btw the nam looks a little like the ggem from yesterday but alot weaker slp obviously. Bigtime ccb ownage though with lots more to follow post 84 hours. Factoring in the SST's ralph i think this storm only changeover will probably be E. LI and SE CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Factoring in the SST's ralph i think this storm only changeover will probably be E. LI and SE CTclearly an obx to the bm track is in play here as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 clearly an obx to the bm track is in play here as well. The fact that the euro ens. Were a bit east of the BM is comforting when you blend the GFS/EURO track which would equate to a BM track and deliver loads of snow to NYC/LI and points N&W. Also keep in mind a storm this magnitude will draw down and incorporate colder air into the system as well. These are one of the storms where they can make "their own cold air" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The fact that the euro ens. Were a bit east of the BM is comforting when you blend the GFS/EURO track which would equate to a BM track and deliver loads of snow to NYC/LI and points N&W. Also keep in mind a storm this magnitude will draw down and incorporate colder air into the system as well. These are one of the storms where they can make "their own cold air"I love where both of us sit right now....very close but not quite in the bullseye attm....perfect! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I love where both of us sit right now....very close but not quite in the bullseye attm....perfect! We almost are ralph but im not sold on that coastal hugger im still liking the OBX-BM track as lots of the model ensembles mean are leaning that way and also these storms love to ride the warmer SST's as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Upton going with all snow for Wed-Thu in their AM NYC grid forecast package Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Upton going with all snow for Wed-Thu in their AM NYC grid forecast packagefreezing rain in my point n click forecast down here. I really don't see ice as a threat with this though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 For Long Island at this point I would go SN to RA/SN mix. Only because the high pressure will be in a bad spot for coastal sections. However strong dynamic are in play which could keep this an all snow event even down to the coast. A strong low pressure like this can introduce wet-bulb processes, and even isallobaric wind factors for a bombing storm. The isallobaric wind factor can help turn an unfavorable wind direction to a more favorable one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 New nam is odd, no meaningful precip west of e pa and very tight snow shield.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 New nam is odd, no meaningful precip west of e pa and very tight snow shield.... NAM in the long range. Euro/Ens/Control all look similar and the GFS is caving on each successive run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 For Long Island at this point I would go SN to RA/SN mix. Only because the high pressure will be in a bad spot for coastal sections. However strong dynamic are in play which could keep this an all snow event even down to the coast. A strong low pressure like this can introduce wet-bulb processes, and even isallobaric wind factors for a bombing storm. The isallobaric wind factor can help turn an unfavorable wind direction to a more favorable one. I stand by a near BM track and the low bombing out rapidly. With the kind of sharp dynamics in play i think LI may not mix at all save for E. LI. The NAM is typically amped/warm and the EURO ensembles are now a bit east of the BM but still a powerful LP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 New nam is odd, no meaningful precip west of e pa and very tight snow shield....precip shield looks like the 12z ggem from yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I stand by a near BM track and the low bombing out rapidly. With the kind of sharp dynamics in play i think LI may not mix at all save for E. LI. The NAM is typically amped/warm and the EURO ensembles are now a bit east of the BM but still a powerful LP The Euro Ens are not east of the BM. They are east of their 0z op run by a bit. That's a MAJOR difference here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 New nam is odd, no meaningful precip west of e pa and very tight snow shield.... One of the things discussed yesterday was the influence of the upstream northern shortwave In terms of inducing a sharper precip cutoff on the western side. Not saying this is what the NAM is depicting (could be right for the wrong reason), but it could play out that way - the fringe may be a precipitous cliff, something not all that uncommon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Saw a met on TV this morning one of the cable nbc stations saying a quick 6-12 thurs from western NC all the way up the ocast. he had all the big cities in snow.To me it is still too far out to say. Seen everything this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Saw a met on TV this morning one of the cable nbc stations saying a quick 6-12 thurs from western NC all the way up the ocast. he had all the big cities in snow.To me it is still too far out to say. Seen everything this year. I would listen to a few great posters on here like earth light before even watching the news weathermen / women Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Hopefully, the Euro continues with the closed low scenario right up to the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Srefs look great aloft fwiw. Still needs some work at the surface but I'm confident we get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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