killabud Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 oh look,we still get snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAMSTORM22 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 As someone who has followed these boards for years, and weather also, in terms of this winter...these subtle changes for the better in the 18z suite, seem to be the beginning of the seasonal trend of bringing back a storm...4 days away, it just seems like in 2 days I am gonna be hearing "see I told you models lose the storm then bring it back etc" - however, seeing that I am not meteorologically savvy, if were that close according to some to seeing this storm possible...why are some on here writing it off completely? Has there ever been a a situation where the models screw up a storm even within 48 hrs and it ends up being a monster? only thing I can think of is January 2000....just seems the trigger is really being pulled quickly on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 well thats interesting what the 18z GFS is trying to do. Flatter initially, and the 2 streams we've been watching miss the phase such as the EURO and earlier GFS runs have been showing. But around 84hrs, there's either some leftover vorticity over tennessee or its some type of phantom sw, (very weak lok). but the leftover Northern stream tries interacting with that. pops a broad LP area/open wave of what looks to be over running by hour 96. (light snow showes/flurriesr over the area from the aforementioned northern strean by 12z sunday).... then by 102, an area of qpf from DC-NYC shows up. 105- broad & weak SLP shows up over NJ,, still .1-.25" qpf blob over the area...Precip moves out by 111. INteresting evolution there leftover trough looks sharper and more consolidated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 The GFS is even less amplified with the late weekend northern stream shortwave. It is a shame since the southernmost vorticity is ready to phase. would like to interject something worth noting. our past two storms in January both had wimpy N/S shortwaves only to be modeled more aggressive in digging as we got closer. don't know if that will pertain to this threat but I am keeping it in the back of my mind john Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 As earthlight said, this one is almost done no, it's not "done" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 GFS has a 1-3/2-4 type event early mon morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 There were years we would kill for that solution. Such a spoiled bunch we are! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 As earthlight said, this one is almost done The weekend into early next week threat is not "done" at all. The prior wave 72-78 hour is on it's deathbed as far as potential for being anything of significance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Norlun trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Everyone needs to stop hecs chasing. This is a repeat of 1994. Lots of small 1"-2"/3"-5" events and mixed in 8"-12" Secs events. I would be surprised if we pulled off a 20" Hecs. If this keeps going, it will still be a historic winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The weekend into early next week threat is not "done" at all. The prior wave 72-78 hour is on it's deathbed as far as potential for being anything of significance. Funny thing is, this event actually stole the main show's thunder, originally it was supposed to be part of the main low that was ejected east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 There were years we would kill for that solution. Such a spoiled bunch we are! Haha good point...i think we start trending more amped now with the short wave just as we have all winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Nice find, those are some wild obs. Thanks. I also like how you can see the coastal front in the vicinity of ISP between about 11PM and 2AM. The CF stayed just SE of my location and it was insane around that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Not a bad setup at 129, the wave doesn't look that robust, but it could do something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 This one is definitely not over for this period. The chances to have a storm Saturday are almost over, but from Sunday to Thursday....there could even be two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 hr 138: delayed but not denied? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 GFS has a 1-3/2-4 type event early mon morning its more then that its a solid 0.50 + qpf event - 5 + inches all snow in the metro - not bad for starters 4 + days away also 6 + inch and 12 + inch events are not common around here especially multiple times a winter we have been over achieving this winter so far with the 6 plus events http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014020518/gfs_apcpn_us_35.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The follow-up wave late in the weekend is our best shot at a storm. It wouldn't take a lot of amplifying for it to spin up a significant enough low near the NJ coast and give us a nice area of snow. There's still the off chance that the two waves can be close enough to each other that they interact and spin up a storm as well. The chances here aren't dead by any means. If we're relying just on the first wave, I think that will be difficult to amplify enough for much snow this far north. But this situation will likely continue to change over the next 24-48 hours. I highly doubt we're seeing the final outcome on a storm(s) 72-96 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 @HR 144: What the what?!? Something is brewing in the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 It feels immoral to read this thread just a couple hours after clearing 9"+ of new snow. That has to be a sin. Not sure if anybody mentioned this but Lee Goldberg said the obvious, a couple different pieces of energy over the weekend looking to produce mood/nuisance snows, but he doesn't rule out a more consolidated cyclone. More optimistic than I would have put it but he's the expert. He did, however, say he is watching the middle of next week for a potential significant event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CSheridan12 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 As someone who has followed these boards for years, and weather also, in terms of this winter...these subtle changes for the better in the 18z suite, seem to be the beginning of the seasonal trend of bringing back a storm...4 days away, it just seems like in 2 days I am gonna be hearing "see I told you models lose the storm then bring it back etc" - however, seeing that I am not meteorologically savvy, if were that close according to some to seeing this storm possible...why are some on here writing it off completely? Has there ever been a a situation where the models screw up a storm even within 48 hrs and it ends up being a monster? only thing I can think of is January 2000....just seems the trigger is really being pulled quickly on this one. I think people are pulling the trigger so quickly because all of our friends have been asking us "So what's this I hear about 30" of snow on sunday." ALL BLEEPING WEEK. I'm about to pull the trigger on some of my friends' sources before I pull the trigger on this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 We're pretty much gonna get snow no matter what happens, but perhaps the lead wave can get sheared out and the main focus goes to what happens on Monday. That was after all when the models were showing a huge MECS/HECS. There's going to be tremendous variability with the models because there's several energetic pieces being ejected eastward and any one of them could blow up into something significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 no, it's not "done" To my untrained eye, it looks like there is some improvement out west as a ridge is starting rear its head... am I off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 well thats interesting what the 18z GFS is trying to do. Flatter initially, and the 2 streams we've been watching miss the phase such as the EURO and earlier GFS runs have been showing. But around 84hrs, there's either some leftover vorticity over tennessee or its some type of phantom sw, (very weak lok). but the leftover Northern stream tries interacting with that. pops a broad LP area/open wave of what looks to be over running by hour 96. (light snow showes/flurriesr over the area from the aforementioned northern strean by 12z sunday).... then by 102, an area of qpf from DC-NYC shows up. 105- broad & weak SLP shows up over NJ,, still .1-.25" qpf blob over the area...Precip moves out by 111. INteresting evolution there leftover trough looks sharper and more consolidated. Some 24-hour qpf figures (2/9 6z through 2/10 6z): BDR: 0.37" EWR: 0.34" HPN: 0.37" ISP: 0.37" NYC: 0.35" PHL: 0.40" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Thanks. I also like how you can see the coastal front in the vicinity of ISP between about 11PM and 2AM. The CF stayed just SE of my location and it was insane around that time. I was located in E npt at the time of that storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Norlun trough. for when? the 84-114 event? thats another over running/weak SLP system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 There are a lot of shortwaves and disturbances in this flow with plentiful cold air to the north and transient blocking on almost every model. A moderate snowstorm may be delayed for a variety of reasons but I would be shocked if we were completely denied a few more good chances before any pattern change. The GFS has a brief west coast ridge spike around Day 3-4 which will enhance potential around Days 5-7 on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The best part of this run is yet another lively threat next week. The worst part of this run is I need some mother loving sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Very 1994 ish on the GFS, hour 156 another wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The Saturday disturbance doesn't have a shot because the confluence shreds it apart, but that could be a good thing as it could give the disturbance after it more room to amplify and develop. It actually reminds me of our late January storm but not as cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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