WintersGrasp Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 the waves that the EURO/GFS focus on are still different, the precip we get on the EURO is from the first wave.Yep...the first wave was well out to sea on the GFS and NAM, so it is a different solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 6, 2014 Author Share Posted February 6, 2014 the waves that the EURO/GFS focus on are still different, the precip we get on the EURO is from the first wave. This is telling me that the final solution is still very much in the air and that is not weenie talk my friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Incoming for Wednesday on the euro Edit : 6-10" Wednesday through Thursday. Not a huge bit....but another of what we've had several times this winter....6-10" snowfalls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Guys this is the Sunday monday thread. Please create another thread for any storms you see in the LR and talk about you re favorite snowstorms on the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 6, 2014 Author Share Posted February 6, 2014 Guys this is the Sunday monday thread. Please create another thread for any storms you see in the LR and talk about you re favorite snowstorms on the banter thread.Paul you tossing sunday monday now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Warning Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT SPOTTER REPORTS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1130 AM EST THU JAN 13 2011 THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE STORM THAT AFFECTED OUR REGION. APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...SKYWARN SPOTTERS AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/NYC ********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL******************** LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS SNOWFALL OF /INCHES/ MEASUREMENT CONNECTICUT ...FAIRFIELD COUNTY... NEW FAIRFIELD 28.0 1050 AM 1/12 PUBLIC NEWTOWN 27.0 840 AM 1/12 SKYWARN SPOTTER WESTON 24.5 800 AM 1/12 SKYWARN SPOTTER DANBURY 24.1 300 PM 1/12 SKYWARN SPOTTER RIDGEFIELD 22.0 645 AM 1/12 PUBLIC 3 SSE BROOKFIELD 22.0 730 AM 1/12 COCORAHS DANBURY 21.8 1000 AM 1/12 NWS COOP WILTON 18.7 830 AM 1/12 PUBLIC NEW CANAAN 18.0 915 AM 1/12 SKYWARN SPOTTER DARIEN 17.5 1100 AM 1/12 CT DOT WESTPORT 17.4 815 AM 1/12 SKYWARN SPOTTER SHELTON 17.3 950 AM 1/12 PUBLIC BRIDGEPORT 16.0 100 PM 1/12 NWS COOP NORWALK 16.0 934 AM 1/12 PUBLIC GREENWICH 15.5 250 PM 1/12 PUBLIC STRATFORD 14.0 930 AM 1/12 PUBLIC STAMFORD 14.0 800 AM 1/12 SKYWARN SPOTTER[/quote Yes this was the storm. And yes it certainly was a norlun. It was the first time I heard of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigfoot Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 i think sunday -monday ,still up in the air,as per models trying to grasp them,, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Incoming for Wednesday on the euro Edit : 6-10" Wednesday through Thursday. Not a huge bit....but another of what we've had several times this winter....6-10" snowfalls Not sure what you're looking at ... the 00z OP Euro had a lot of rain or freezing rain from Wed-Fri but no snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Paul you tossing sunday monday now? The robust solution is gone. But a light to mod one is possible. I told u march 2001. U have to take stuff in the LR lightly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 The robust solution is gone. But a light to mod one is possible. I told u march 2001. U have to take stuff in the LR lightly I don't think its even close to march 2001..models all had a huge blizzard and didn't bust until inside 48 hours and many locations still got pummeled... This is just a common LR threat that didn't come together Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 6, 2014 Author Share Posted February 6, 2014 The robust solution is gone. But a light to mod one is possible. I told u march 2001. U have to take stuff in the LR lightly Yup very humbling experience to say the least. Think im going to take a little break this weekend to save my sanity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Model threads probably shouldn't be started 10 days....5 days should be the threshold...thats why we have 40 pages of handwringing, banter, and wishcasting over a very light snow event that for the mist part has been modelled out to sea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 We should begin to focus on the Miller A for the middle and latter part of next week BUT too early to start a thread so we don't have to go through the nonsense and hype of 45 pages . HPC is now showing this Miller A for next week lets see if we get some consistency the next couple of days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 6, 2014 Author Share Posted February 6, 2014 I still would not be surprised if this system did end up trending N&W to some degree to give us something noteworthy but not major. 2-4/4-8 type event is still in the realm of possibilities. Super amped solutions are toast however im confident in saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 We should begin to focus on the Miller A for the middle and latter part of next week BUT too early to start a thread so we don't have to go through the nonsense and hype of 45 pages . HPC is now showing this Miller A for next week lets see if we get some consistency the next couple of days too late that thread has already been started Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 6, 2014 Author Share Posted February 6, 2014 We should begin to focus on the Miller A for the middle and latter part of next week BUT too early to start a thread so we don't have to go through the nonsense and hype of 45 pages . HPC is now showing this Miller A for next week lets see if we get some consistency the next couple of days Mid week storm does look appetizing but im not focusing on that till monday the earliest. Too far off and after this storm ive learned my lesson on LR threats and admit i got too excited prematurely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 That has a Feb 5-6 2010 look to it. The storm goes over 40/70 and the next frame shows a highly wound up 973 mB SLP. Sent from my HTC PH39100 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 but it seemed like this one had big signal for several days with ensemble support..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 6, 2014 Author Share Posted February 6, 2014 If you want some encouragement, look at the pattern the next 7-12 days and it is still RIPE with potential. John has credit saying this one might of had to been sacrificed for potentially bigger things down the road, patience and i feel confident we'll get atleast one moderate snow event out of this pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Did a little bit of looking into it, and it would seem it was at least 95% snow for KNYC: http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2010/25-Feb-10-RegionalSurfaceObservations.html Must have melted on contact. Here in Brooklyn, there was rain. I was walking in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Two comments about the 00z ECWMF ensemble means First - They keep the coastal well south and east of the area on Sunday but throw back the inverted trough signal. Second - They like a primary to the Ohio Valley transferring to a secondary and then up the coast. The mean was also wet in the southeast so my guess is the members are somewhat split between a miller B and more of a miller A scenario. Regardless next Thursday-Friday looks stormy. No signs of any major warm ups anytime in the next 16 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I think the 6z nam was real close to a big solution but its still the nam....very interested in 12z now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 The system for Sunday morning on the NAM isn't an inverted trough per say. It's a clipper that looks to get enhanced by some late sloppy phasing right as the two pass each other. We would need the northern stream to drop in and phase while the southern stream vort is still in the deep south. Unless that happens, the northern stream "clipper" actually helps to push the coastal offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 The good news is that the 09z SREF's are showing 0.25"+ for most of the area. With good ratios this could be a high end advisory level snow easily. That was up quite a bit from 03z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Anyone notice how much further northwest the 06z NAM 4k was vs the 12k? This is for noon on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 The good news is that the 09z SREF's are showing 0.25"+ for most of the area. With good ratios this could be a high end advisory level snow easily. That was up quite a bit from 03z.Hopefully we get the last minute bump starting today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Anyone notice how much further northwest the 06z NAM 4k was vs the 12k? This is for noon on Saturday. Yep same thing happend with mondays storm... the phase was only off by 6+ hours or so at 6z ...so lets see what 12z shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 6, 2014 Author Share Posted February 6, 2014 Hopefully we get the last minute bump starting today This outcome/ trend would fit this seasons tendencies for N&W shifts inside 60 hrs perfectly. I said earlier this morning N&W shifts were not out of the question and look whats happening right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 This outcome/ trend would fit this seasons tendencies for N&W shifts inside 60 hrs perfectly. I said earlier this morning N&W shifts were not out of the question and look whats happening right now There's an area of confluence being created by another vort north of the 60hr low that needs to move out of the way more before we would have a shot. We also want the second vort behind it to move closer to the 60hr storm so there can be interaction. If neither of these change, I think we're mostly in for a minor event at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 So close out west, the southern vort has a lot more interaction with the ULL over the PAC NW as early as hour 21. The runs which gave us the monster had this ULL ejecting as one piece. Arguably a piece of the ULL phased in already. The southern vort looks intense. Let's see how it plays out the rest of the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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