96blizz Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Long range NAM is close to a monster --- but off shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Precip literally kisses the SNJ coast at hour 81. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 if the spacing of these shortwaves is a bit closer, this is heading up the coast. I wouldn't call off the chance for something significant for another day or two out of this. I think the major/apocalyptic scenarios being painted a few days ago are done, but one of these troughs approaching us sharpens and digs, and we could have ourselves a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I wouldn't call off the chance for something significant for another day or two out of this. I think the major/apocalyptic scenarios being painted a few days ago are done, but one of these troughs approaching us sharpens and digs, and we could have ourselves a storm. I consider "moderate" 4-8"... I probably should have used the word "significant". In terms of climo 4-8" is pretty significant for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Why does every time the models don't show a storm anymore..and then it shows one for the future.. some people start saying "we may need to sacrifice" one for the other. the models were loving sunday.. why should we believe them for the period late next week? Because people on here for some reason attach anthropomorphic qualities to computer modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Just a disclaimer, the NAM is known for being too amped up at days 3-4 so seeing it that far NW actually gives me confidence that the Euro track is more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Just a disclaimer, the NAM is known for being too amped up at days 3-4 so seeing it that far NW actually gives me confidence that the Euro track is more likely. I would say a EURO track at any hour is more likely to verify than any track given by the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 For another illustration of the changes between the 12z and 18z NAM courtesy of a stronger, more consolidated low: Also, the column is cooling in Norfolk as the storm departs. A somewhat more rapid cooling of the column could potentially provide Norfolk with another opportunity for snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Because people on here for some reason attach anthropomorphic qualities to computer modeling. Pattern recognition is so much more important. That's what makes our best posters the best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 NAM looks like the SREFs. Not all that far away from something bigger. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/18/nam_namer_084_precip_p24.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 NAVGEM has a wave similar to Monday's event on the 12th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The more negative PNA than forecast didn't allow the ridge out west to build enough for a big wound up storm here this weekend. Monday's negative PNA event wasn't amplified enough to cut. But the storm today was a little too amplified so we ran into P-Type issues. The big wound up storm the models were showing a few days ago is exceedingly rare to pull off during a PNA around -1. Today less ridging to west with strung out flow Monday stronger western ridging and more focused energy Northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Do you some of you realize how close you are to a phase here at 66 hours ? " THIS IS OVER ' " NO CHANCE " NEED A MAJOR CHANGE " ONTO THE NEXT " , That`s not great analysis guys . We are in a pattern where A . these have come W all year , B they have had a tendency to sharpen up and deepen inside 72 hours C Non of our 6- 10 and 8 -12 s this year started out remotely close to this . Let this get inside 72 hours before even worrying . We dont get wire to wire snowstorm runs, you guys are a little too quick to dismiss this ( it doesnt have to be a blockbuster , and may not be ) But you have let this play out . Agreed, but it goes both ways. Countless posts by wishcasters saying things like "I'm sure it's going to dig more," or "I'm certain the trend to the NW will continue," or "toss that horrible run of ___ - must be convective feedback." They simply repeat phrases they've heard the pros say (often pertaining to different setups) and look only for the data/model runs that support snow and dismiss all else. Both approaches are annoying. I much prefer a reasoned, balanced analysis, noting the things that look good for snow, as well as the reasons why snow might not happen. And I absolutely hate absolutism (lol, see what I did there?), wherein people talk about "locks" or "whiffs" when we're days out and knowing the high degree of uncertainty associated with chaotic systems like the weather and the far from perfect models we use to try to use to predict that weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The trend this year has been for storms to push north late so this is definitely not a done deal.... I like to wait for our current storm to reach 50/50 low location and see what the models are seeing then... it's been a busy pattern and everything effects the next system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Another good pro reminding us to not dismiss the weekend threat - Mike Masco is pretty good, although he's largely commenting for the DC-Balt-Philly area, but obviously if a system brings snow to those places, there's a decent chance the snow makes it to the NYC metro region, whereas a miss for them is certainly a miss for us. The point is more his analysis of the pattern and why it's too early to dismiss a decent storm for Sunday. http://www.abc2news.com/dpp/weather/weather_blogs/a-weekend-storm-shouldnt-be-written-off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The trend this year has been for storms to push north late so this is definitely not a done deal.... I like to wait for our current storm to reach 50/50 low location and see what the models are seeing then... it's been a busy pattern and everything effects the next system. The door is still open for a small to moderate event here this wekeend, but the big potential event the models were show a few days ago is gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 It probably snows Sunday ,But if its light moderate or significant remains to be seen . There should be enough space on the EC that when a SLP is at OBX it prob corrects N and W like many other have this year . This talk about sacrificing storms is lost on me as 1 piece of a complex atmosphere offers you a better scenario 10 - 12 days down the road . No one that's been writing with any seriousness here has made the claim this weekend has to be big but now many have decided that if the models print out only a moderate snow its failed and we should now look to the day 10 because that looks " better " . Yeh looking up a mountain when you`re on ski`s doesn't look that bad but once off the lift everything changes . Everything looks great in the LR - stuff gets washed out from a distance , as you get closer you start to realize a piece is missing here tomorrow a piece is missing there . ITS CALLED THE LR FOR A REASON - the verification scores are feeble . Models love to bundle energy on the east coast in its day 10 - 15 .so its common that you see this . Who wouldn't want the 12z Euro to verify - 3 snowstorms next week in 4 days , but its prob just not sure which SW to key on , so its locks in on all of them .But will correct as we get closer So it should snow this weekend around here IMO , and if its 4 or 14 you will not know until Friday . Common sense should tell you , if a SLP is being seen by all the models at OBX in this type of winter , and the modeling for the most part is only a step away from a big solution , if OP after OP and Ens are Ens are mere misses in this type of winter , the focus has to be on Sun not day 10 IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Agree on that... The door is still open for a small to moderate event here this wekeend, but the big potential event the models were show a few days ago is gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Agree on that... The big 980's benchmark buster some of the models were showing a few days ago would have been a rarity for a -1 PNA. I would be curious to see what percentage of 12" or greater events at NYC since 1950 occurred with a PNA pushing -1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The door is still open for a small to moderate event here this wekeend, but the big potential event the models were show a few days ago is gone. I think the door is closing fairly rapidly. The modeled confluence is too strong to allow that vort to amplify. We need to rely on the second piece of energy to come in more amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The 18z GFS does look more amplified with the southern stream vort at hour 60. We'll see. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Really trying, just not going to get it done. The confluence to the north compresses the flow too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The GFS is even less amplified with the late weekend northern stream shortwave. It is a shame since the southernmost vorticity is ready to phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The GFS is even less amplified with the late weekend northern stream shortwave. It is a shame since the southernmost vorticity is ready to phase. Yeah, I think that opens up the door a little bit more though. The northern stream still isn't being sampled well yet. (Hopefully) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The low tracks further offshore and not much of an inverted trough thanks to the northern stream crapping out. If the northern stream was showing that same closed off super amped 500mb look that it had two days ago, with that southern stream, we would have been in business I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The low tracks further offshore and not much of an inverted trough thanks to the northern stream crapping out. If the northern stream was showing that same closed off super amped 500mb look that it had two days ago, with that southern stream, we would have been in business I believe. It was so agonizingly close at HR 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 The low tracks further offshore and not much of an inverted trough thanks to the northern stream crapping out. If the northern stream was showing that same closed off super amped 500mb look that it had two days ago, with that southern stream, we would have been in business I believe.That said this storm still deserves to be watched. Its not over yet as mother nature has showed us this year (not wishcasting stating seasonal trends) not saying its going to happen just giving an educated opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Looks a little better this run in terms of the trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 As earthlight said, this one is almost done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Still a decent little event at 109 or so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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