IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Canadian is OTS and weak with the coastal storm and then dries up the northern stream. Just flurries for Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 6, 2014 Author Share Posted February 6, 2014 Like Facebook there should be a "like" button for certain posts.Tonights 0z model runs "should" be the make or break for this storm as all players from the northern stream and southern stream should be sampled. Tendency for northern stream waves this year have been forecasted to be weak and in the end more energetic in the end making them dig further being the eventual outcome. Not saying its happening now but its been in the back of my head since 7 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 That I have to scroll back is a problem right there Can't have it both ways. You don't want a thread created but then you do want a play by play but then you dont want to have to scroll back a page to view it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Tonights 0z model runs "should" be the make or break for this storm as all players from the northern stream and southern stream should be sampled. Tendency for northern stream waves this year have been forecasted to be weak and in the end more energetic in the end making them dig further being the eventual outcome. Not saying its happening now but its been in the back of my head since 7 days out This prob trends through 12z Sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 This prob trends through 12z Sat. Yea I think the key is the small disturbance that exits the SE over the next 24 hours after that we should get a clear picture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Yeah I'm betting this trends, could be some dramatic short term changes on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 6, 2014 Author Share Posted February 6, 2014 Yea I think the key is the small disturbance that exits the SE over the next 24 hours after that we should get a clear picture Coupled with northern and southern stream components all being on the field im going with the seasonal trends. Not saying a major trend back towards a blockbuster ( secretly do ) but a moderate event still is still well within the realm of possibilities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kyle1 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Let's all remember one thing here: the pattern this winter is stronger, and more north. Remember Mondays storm wasn't supposed to be much, nor was the one a few weeks ago in the Baltimore PHIL regoin. Even if the models are right and the storm goes OTS, you can at least bring it north, and maybe even allowing a phasing for coastal NJ NYC LI up north. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 12z Euro is OTS with the costal. Some light snow Saturday night. Not more than an inch or two. More SE NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Let's all remember one thing here: the pattern this winter is stronger, and more north. Remember Mondays storm wasn't supposed to be much, nor was the one a few weeks ago in the Baltimore PHIL regoin. Even if the models are right and the storm goes OTS, you can at least bring it north, and maybe even allowing a phasing for coastal NJ NYC LI up north. We will see. There's an area of confluence (sheared out S/W) north of Saturday's system which could act to keep it suppressed. Also, the SE Ridge is weaker than other storms have had, and the wave trailing it is interfering with its ability to amplify on its own. It's going to be hard for something to reach north to here with those factors in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 6, 2014 Author Share Posted February 6, 2014 To my eyes the 12Z EURO was a tick N&W as the precip actually reaches our area and the .25 almost reaches the southern tip of S. NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 To my eyes the 12Z EURO was a tick N&W as the precip actually reaches our area and the .25 almost reaches the southern tip of S. NJ It trended towards what the 12z NAM shows. In order for the inverted trough feature to happen you want the coastal further southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 One can argue that there is better spacing on the 12z Euro , it allows the coastal to tick a little further N and W on sat and the clipper in turn is in intact at hour 96 unlike at 6z hour 108 when it escaped S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Yeah, the lack of a good SE Ridge will hurt is here while it was a big help on Monday. Sunday 72.png Last Monday MON.png Yea good point...do you think the models are under doing it? It wouldn't be the first time this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 12z UKMET is a swing and a miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 New SREF's are a hair drier, but some spots are still 0.25"+, especially NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 6, 2014 Author Share Posted February 6, 2014 Although the NAM was OTS the northern stream S/W looked more potent on 500mb chart..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Clipper . Slightly better looking than at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Mt Hollys snow map for this weekend.. Upton hasn't released one yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 NEW THREAD FOR SAT/SUN LIGHT SNOW EVENT/CLIPPER HAS BEEN CREATED. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42755-28-29-clipperlight-snow-event/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 18z GFS is going to be weak and OTS with the coastal. Will flip now to new thread for clipper discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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