Zelocita Weather Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Looks like the 18z NAM spits out 0.1-0.2" QPF, should be 1-2" with cold temps. Better representation then on the prior run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 The NAM seemed to be closer to a better event for most-the trough looked a little sharper and there was a minor response near the coast. If it digs more and takes on a better appearance, still possible at this range, there could be a better area of snow north and east of it. The major event idea has been off the table for a while, but a nice few inch event is still possible. An event from the first system I think is out the window. That needs to be as weak as possible and out of the way for the second trough to have a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 18z GFS N/S looks sharper compared to the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Light snow moving in around midnight Saturday night. Clipper looking nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 This isn't going to be a big event, especially by this years standards, but it's a bit more than snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 1-3" on the 18z GFS. Somewhere around 0.10"+ for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 1-3" on the 18z GFS. Nice refresher on my 14" snowpack.. Ill take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 By early afternoon it's out of here. About a 12 hour light snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Nice refresher on my 14" snowpack.. Ill take it Agreed, 850's are in the -4 to -8C range so ratios should be fairly decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 6, 2014 Author Share Posted February 6, 2014 There is a lot of little spokes of energy in there, another disturbance comes through later Sun/Mon and targets south (DC/BALT) with another area of snow showers/light snow, if they could consolidate a little better could be more substantial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 As it is this is 1 to 3 . This has been the range in which the models have started to trend wetter . I don't think getting to .25 is out of the question, and at 15 to 1 that would make this a plowable snow . I never toss pot 4 inch systems . Gotta take what you can get . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Euro ens have 0.1"+ area wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Euro ens have 0.1"+ area wide. That's 0.1 QPF right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 That's 0.1 QPF right? yea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I'm not sure why but I'm excited about the 0z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 There is a complex ULL just now coming ashore along the Pacific Northwest coast. It has several shortwaves embedded in its rotation. The models sends several of these waves eastward, one after another. Right now most guidance sharpens the first in the series. But a few of the GEFS and SREF members key on another wave right on the heels of the first - and develop a moderate impact coastal low. I think this follow up wave bears watching. It would be more like a Sun. night into Mon timeframe. This wave is in a better position to amplify with respect the longwave trof axis. And it's possible the ULL coming ashore might cause some model changes. I've seen numerous cases where models alternatively amplified one wave and then suddenly another, when they were in close proximity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 The 21z SREF's are about the same, maybe a tick wetter east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 There is a complex ULL just now coming ashore along the Pacific Northwest coast. It has several shortwaves embedded in its rotation. The models sends several of these waves eastward, one after another. Right now most guidance sharpens the first in the series. But a few of the GEFS and SREF members key on another wave right on the heels of the first - and develop a moderate impact coastal low. I think this follow up wave bears watching. It would be more like a Sun. night into Mon timeframe. This wave is in a better position to amplify with respect the longwave trof axis. And it's possible the ULL coming ashore might cause some model changes. I've seen numerous cases where models alternatively amplified one wave and then suddenly another, when they were in close proximity. Yea I was noticing that too. Also the energy that exits the east coast in the next 24 hours will play a role Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Yea I was noticing that too. Also the energy that exits the east coast in the next 24 hours will play a role yea this isn't over I think and 0Z I feel will start to get much better sampling or idea on what to concentrate on. in a winter where inside 60 hrs trends were pretty signifigant im leaning towards more trending with this one as well, to a degree to be determined however Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Southern stream is stronger this run but northern is weaker and slightly slower through 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I'm not giving up on another moderate event in the winter where the trend is you're Freind! I'm thinking a low end warning event is not off the table. This is the year of overproduction! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I'm not even sure the clipper is going to be anything more than flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Deff went in the wrong direction if we were looking for a bigger event, clipper looks a little dryer too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I'm not giving up on another moderate event in the winter where the trend is you're Freind! I'm thinking a low end warning event is not off the table. This is the year of overproduction! after looking at the NAM its completely off the table and put away - maybe we can squeeze a coating to inch out of this - maybe http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2014020700/namconus_reflectivity_us_19.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I'm not giving up on another moderate event in the winter where the trend is you're Freind! I'm thinking a low end warning event is not off the table. This is the year of overproduction! We need the trough to trend sharper and hopefully negative tilt when it gets here. If it's a sheared out piece of crap, it won't generate anything but maybe some snow showers good for a coating. Inverted troughs are impossible to rely on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 The NAM is 1" and both the GFS and Plume are at 2" for this failed event at NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 The NAM is 1" and both the GFS and Plume are at 2" for this failed event at NYC.It's not a failed event considering nothing significant was shown on any model within a reasonable timeframe (within 96 hours). Anyway, let's see if we can get the second wave to amplify some and give us a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 A little more than flurries right ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 The cras is so close to having something decent: Baby steps right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Possibility of light snow at best for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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