IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 00z GFS is flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 The coastal now gets some accumulating snow into CNJ Sat . At 18z it was south of AC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 The coastal now gets some accumulating snow into CNJ Sat . At 18z it was south of ACCan't fault a lack of optimism Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Can't fault a lack of optimism Its there , Its part of the forecast area , I wouldn't ignore if it only showed 1 - 2 onto Long Island . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Its there , Its part of the forecast area , I wouldn't ignore if it only showed 1 - 2 onto Long Island .True. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Not giving up on the northern trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
windvane Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 the entire week I have been saying watch the 12Z runs tomorrow. Big changes when accurate Pac Data gets thrown into the models. The 1-3 will turn into 4-6 or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 the entire week I have been saying watch the 12Z runs tomorrow. Big changes when accurate Pac Data gets thrown into the models. The 1-3 will turn into 4-6 or more. Has to be a 1-3 first..right now its flurried Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Lol 06z nam shows another clipper that could Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 the entire week I have been saying watch the 12Z runs tomorrow. Big changes when accurate Pac Data gets thrown into the models. The 1-3 will turn into 4-6 or more.Good call!!! Nam and RPM both now pop a miller b and give PHL to NYC a light to mod snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Good call!!! Nam and RPM both now pop a miller b and give PHL to NYC a light to mod snow event. Lol very funny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Several gefs members blow this up as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Several gefs members blow this up as well. For when? And is it actually a decent hit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 For when? And is it actually a decent hit?Monday am and for snj and conn it's pretty good yea. Right now though little support. Let's see what happens as the day progresses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 This is getting ridiculous... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Bill Evans (channel 7) tweeted that he's a little concerned for Sun night-Mon morning after seeing the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Like clock work this hear last minute trends commence for better results for our area. If it holds or gets better this season has been one hell of a ride in the short range for forecasting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooklynSnow97 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 4 Days Out So We Still Have Time To Trend More Amplified And Stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Just looked at the NAM... It actually pops a LP just south of LI with decent QPF across the area. I would be astonished if we pulled off a moderate event even though it's not all the surprising with the way the models have trended in the short term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Not a bad look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 There is a complex ULL just now coming ashore along the Pacific Northwest coast. It has several shortwaves embedded in its rotation. The models sends several of these waves eastward, one after another. Right now most guidance sharpens the first in the series. But a few of the GEFS and SREF members key on another wave right on the heels of the first - and develop a moderate impact coastal low. I think this follow up wave bears watching. It would be more like a Sun. night into Mon timeframe. This wave is in a better position to amplify with respect the longwave trof axis. And it's possible the ULL coming ashore might cause some model changes. I've seen numerous cases where models alternatively amplified one wave and then suddenly another, when they were in close proximity. Nice call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Not a bad look Who knows still have time for this to trend stronger/wetter paul. Seasonal trends my friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Does anybody know if the EURO showed anything for the sun night into mon timeframe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Does anybody know if the EURO showed anything for the sun night into mon timeframe? Its sees the piece of energy but it sends it SE , doesn't sharpen the trough like the NAM does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Being that we're 48+ hours out its a hell of a way to maybe start a trend in the right direction again folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Good trends here guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Its sees the piece of energy but it sends it SE , doesn't sharpen the trough like the NAM does Same the ens? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Same the ens? The Control run sees some light snow from CNJ south , Eduggs brought up a good point , there are several SW that the models see rotating around the base of the Vortex and hopefully they are able to key on one of them . Then its a matter of redevelopment on the EC or not . Think that's gona take some time . It is the NAM at 78 hours , so that gives me pause . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Since when are we using a 78 hour Nam for guidance ???? http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2014020706/namconus_reflectivity_us_25.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Since when are we using a 78 hour Nam for guidance ???? http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2014020706/namconus_reflectivity_us_25.png When it shows that lol . At hour 78 you have to take step back .The Euro and it Control are just SE , so you have to wait and see if its the 3rd wave that' the models key on . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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