REDMK6GLI Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Minus 12 air @ 850 , Nice Ratios A little more robust of a northern stream just might've dug more and phased possibly. Eager to see the 12z EURO again...sighhh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LnbWx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 In my backyard. Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Light snow possible Saturday night on the 12z Euro, especially western sections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Light snow possible Saturday night on the 12z Euro, especially western sections. Not as much digging as GGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 12z euro light snow from ttn-south. 7am Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Develops a low east of VA. Little to Far East..looks like a few inches for Delmarva and snj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Flow is very progressive to allow anything more on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 The first southern stream s/w that slides off the east coast on Sat is approaching a longwave ridge, so it will dampen and weaken. Then northern stream s/w coming through the Lakes Sat night and Sun should strengthen, since it is actually rounding the base of a trof But the baroclinicity is terrible along the coast behind the first wave that slid east. Without a strong thermal boundary we would need an extremely intense s/w to initiate cyclogenesis along the coast. If something meaningful is going to happen, I think it would be Sunday night or Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 It would be nice to get a couple of inches from all this at least, I'll gladly take that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Man this might be some of the most struggles I have seen the models have. That ULL is is taking them to the woodshed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Man this might be some of the most struggles I have seen the models have. That ULL is is taking them to the woodshed. Explain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Explain? That ULL over the PAC NW is sending in like 10 short waves and each run is focusing on a different one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 That ULL over the PAC NW is sending in like 10 short waves and each run is focusing on a different one Oh yea these storms slated for sunday/ monday on no doubt are going to cause noticable run-to-run differences. This is why im stepping away from seriousl model watching until monday/ tuesday. Taking baby steps now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 The 15z SREF's are 0.10"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 The 15z SREF's are 0.10"+. That doesn't tell the full story. The mean is about .2" for NYC. +.25" for the twin forks. Half of the members are +.25". 3 or 4 are +.5" and 4 or 5 are basically 0. There are no big hits but it's not terrible to see that most of the individuals want to bring a band of accumulating snow through the area late Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Such a shame the southern stream isn't just a bit slower or we probably we'd have seen a MECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 That doesn't tell the full story. The mean is about .2" for NYC. +.25" for the twin forks. Half of the members are +.25". 3 or 4 are +.5" and 4 or 5 are basically 0. There are no big hits but it's not terrible to see that most of the individuals want to bring a band of accumulating snow through the area late Sunday night. Yeah I didn't look at the individual members, but it's not surprising considering their were lots of nice hits at 09z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Such a shame the southern stream isn't just a bit slower or we probably we'd have seen a MECS. True. I was so hyped for this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooklynSnow97 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Such a shame the southern stream isn't just a bit slower or we probably we'd have seen a MECS. Flow Is Too Progressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 SREF snowfall probs off the 15z are in the 25% range for 1" of snow and 10% or so for 4" of snow across the area. I don't put much stock in the specific numbers but this tool is useful as a rough estimate of likelihoods. These numbers are not that far off from previous runs. But there has been a trend of lessening the probabilities on Saturday/Sunday and increasing the probs late Sun into Mon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Such a shame the southern stream isn't just a bit slower or we probably we'd have seen a MECS. A mechanism has to make the two waves phase into each other. The pattern is very flat so there can be little amplification, and the waves can just fly by each other. Not a recipe for a big storm of any kind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Such sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 18z at 48 , at 500 mb looks better than at 12z `a 54 hrs . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Sharper at 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 A mechanism has to make the two waves phase into each other. The pattern is very flat so there can be little amplification, and the waves can just fly by each other. Not a recipe for a big storm of any kind. There was clearly some mechanism because the models were going crazy with this several days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I'm still not giving up on a moderate event. Remember the trend this winter. We still have time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 And at 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 The northern stream disturbance is very energetic so there's definitely a shot it can trend more favorably as we've seen with the latter January storm. There's starting to become a better focus with the models on all these disturbances, which will help us know exactly what might happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Wave 4 , tryin to turn the corner @ 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Wave 4 , tryin to turn the corner @ 78 If you extrapolate that from 84 the N/S is certainly catching the southern stream S/W. your wave 4 theory looks pretty good.... So far lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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