SnoSki14 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Wave 4 , tryin to turn the corner @ 78 So what is this wave, does it eject ahead of the system the Euro develops for the 13th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Yet another northern stream vort is dropping in behind this storm. It seems to be trending stronger and needs to be watched. It looks to actually have some room to amplify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 So what is this wave, does it eject ahead of the system the Euro develops for the 13th? Its ahead of the Euro`s wave the EC presses a little further S , then brings the storm up along it . Similar the Nam is just further N Wave 3 gets a little enhancement on the Coast Sunday , so there should some light accumulations around, would match the SREF on the Euro it just presses , this one on the NAM looks like it wants to come out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 7, 2014 Author Share Posted February 7, 2014 Yeah the Sun Night/Mon wave is small potatoes, the 4th for Mon/Tue is the best chance. That looks like it has legs, a nice route NE to take and a good high pressure to the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Yeah the Sun Night/Mon wave is small potatoes, the 4th for Mon/Tue is the best chance. That looks like it has legs, a nice route NE to take and a good high pressure to the NW. Right we spoke about the Ridge axis before .The issue for me is there are so many SW if one is goin to pop, its likely the models catch it late . NAM 72 hours plus ... essshhhhhhh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 The Nam has a nice look, almost similar to the Monday storm though the SE ridging is weaker (less amplification/N&W trend) but it is the Nam way beyond its range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Yeah the Sun Night/Mon wave is small potatoes, the 4th for Mon/Tue is the best chance. That looks like it has legs, a nice route NE to take and a good high pressure to the NW. I don't buy it yet. Minimal support on from the other models or their ensembles. I think it would slide harmlessly off the SE coast as modeled anyway and I think this run of the NAM is overdone at the surface from 72hr - 84hr. I don't like the upper levels for the Tue time period. But I was wrong for the storm this past Mon. And who knows... any one of several shortwaves is capable of spinning up a coastal. It's interesting to note how amplified the northern stream flow is in Canada. Several days ago most guidance had that high amplitude pattern further south. A small change in the upper levels could really change the height orientation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 GFS looks interesting @ 45 HRs, some interaction going on between the shrotwaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 48 hours good VVs forming in Western PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 The changes at hour 33 of the 18z GFS are laughable, comparing it to the 12z run. 18z has 2 separate vorts with 1 trying to ride under the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Big changes on the 18z GFS, going to be a lot snowier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 18z is going to be good.. sunday evening steady snow moving in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Snow breaking out over PA @ 54 hours, some good VVs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Solid 2-4" event now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 wow great run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Touching 0.25"+ in spots. Snow maps spitting out 2-4" area wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 1-4" for Philly/NYC., matches some of its ensembles from 12z, lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 This is just comical. Hopefully we can get a cave now with the second system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 EURO/NAM has this too, but farther South, something to track for sure. Looks like models are beginning to focus on particular shortwaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Definitely a solid low pressure system by the time It reaches Cape Cod. 2-4" over a large swatch from Western PA to Boston including Philly and NYC. Philly is right on the edge of 2-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 This is just comical. Hopefully we can get a cave now with the second system. Lol tell me about it the models are lost, gefs did show a good signal at 12z so maybe we finally have something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 NWS lowered their PoP for the weekend light snow events. Will have to see if the 18z data holds sway at 00z. If so, they'll be in a position to go back to their higher probabilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 2-4 .. I'll take it ... at least its not showing just flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Looks like about 2" for PHL and NYC,up to 3" for Monmouth of course and higher elevations NW...so it's really 1-3 not 2-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 The changes at hour 33 of the 18z GFS are laughable, comparing it to the 12z run. 18z has 2 separate vorts with 1 trying to ride under the other. There's literally 4 vorts to all handle at once and all of which have impacts on the other. So any computer would have a hell of a time trying to figure out amplitudes, and then QPF for each. If all of this worked together, it would be one crazy storm, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 There's literally 4 vorts to all handle at once and all of which have impacts on the other. So any computer would have a hell of a time trying to figure out amplitudes, and then QPF for each. If all of this worked together, it would be one crazy storm, that's for sure. hell yea it would and the way these models have been wouldn't be surprised. would you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 It is good to see that 2 models now pick up the same SW vort 3 . Now its a matter can it sharpen , inside 48 hours has been the range where the models have deepened these this year . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 hell yea it would and the way these models have been wouldn't be surprised. would you? Look at it as "butterfly flaps its wings in Brazil and causes a tornado in Missouri" syndrome. With so much chaos, it's nearly impossible to forecast with any real certainty. Try throwing a bunch of pebbles into a pond and trying to forecast the amplitudes of the resulting wakes as they interact with each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 It is good to see that 2 models now pick up the same SW vort 3 . Now its a matter can it sharpen , inside 48 hours has been the range where the models have deepened these this year . .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Look at it as "butterfly flaps its wings in Brazil and causes a tornado in Missouri" syndrome. With so much chaos, it's nearly impossible to forecast with any real certainty. Try throwing a bunch of pebbles into a pond and trying to forecast the amplitudes of the resulting wakes as they interact with each other. touche sir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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