REDMK6GLI Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Past few days models have been showing a pretty sizable low off the coast around febraury 8th. This storm has the POTENTIAL to bring some good snows from DC-BOSTON. At this time it is pretty far out but discussion for this possible event does seem warranted after the mid-weeks storm potential as the models are beating the drum for this period One thing is for sure there will be no lack of moisture and also the cold air will be on the EC so we have a good starting point for this threat. Let the discussion begin folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Also seems like we might have a block develop as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 Also seems like we might have a block develop as well Yes higher heights towards greenland and the wednesday storm acting as a 50/50 block it would certainly help the weekend storm for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Considering the trends, I'd say the Fish storm on the 12th has better potential. The Feb 8th storm could still shift west 400 miles and turn into another lakes cutter like the one on Feb 4th is doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CSheridan12 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 This morning both the 06Z GFS and the 00Z ECMWF were in pretty impressive agreemenr on this storm, especially for it being 240 hours out, but then I looked at the 00Z GFS to see if it was also agreeing and it had a completely different setup. So there is still a lot of work to be done here but I had thought about starting this thread this morning as well, glad I wasn't the only one thinking about it...now lets give this some time to develop and see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Much will depend on the Feb 4/5th storm, becoming a 50/50 low and enhancing the -NAO block. Heights also look more favorable over Rockies/West Coast for this low the energy to track to our south as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I love all the hype and storm possibilities coming up but I think we need to pump the brakes just a tad. With all the talk already about next weekend's storm you would think its 4-5 days away. I can't count how many times storms looked promising (maybe not quite this promising) 10 days out. Lets at least get through this weekend. I'm as big of a weenie as the next person and I'm praying to anything that will listen that the storm happens as modeled. I've just seen the enormous letdown time and time again when we all get excited way to early. Maybe my unusual apprehensive-ness will be a good luck charm for this storm. Sent from my HTC ONE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 This morning both the 06Z GFS and the 00Z ECMWF were in pretty impressive agreemenr on this storm, especially for it being 240 hours out, but then I looked at the 00Z GFS to see if it was also agreeing and it had a completely different setup. So there is still a lot of work to be done here but I had thought about starting this thread this morning as well, glad I wasn't the only one thinking about it...now lets give this some time to develop and see what happens. Pretty fair assumption i think. John posted the positive developments that would help this storm a good bit earlier. The february 5th storm creating a 50/50 block and also higher heights towards greenland would only add to threats legitimacy in my opinion. Models are going to be waffling a bit through the weekend so its best to relax like you said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Low off the TX coast hour 192. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The high over northern New England at day 8 looks ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 Thanks for partaking in PbP for this threat yanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 obv pretty far out but that a great set-up on the euro for a major east coast snowstorm….the cutter acts as a 50/50 for this…really nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 We're snow at hour 210. 850MB temps are -8 to -12. That's pretty close to ideal. Then they warm. This system has the same problems as the one before it. However hour 216 is about as close to a PDII redux as you will ever see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Euro looks fantastic. HECS like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 obv pretty far out but that a great set-up on the euro for a major east coast snowstorm….the cutter acts as a 50/50 for this…really nice John was onto something this morning when he made a statement along those lines. It looks like a promising setup buddy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 atlanta gets a major ice storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 QPF bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Hour 222 coastal is taking over. Very PDII like, I hate using that as an analog but the similarities are there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 We're snow at hour 210. 850MB temps are -8 to -12. That's pretty close to ideal. Then they warm. This system has the same problems as the one before it. However hour 216 is about as close to a PDII redux as you will ever see. Overrunning moisture over a wound up miller A? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 We're snow at hour 210. 850MB temps are -8 to -12. That's pretty close to ideal. Then they warm. This system has the same problems as the one before it. However hour 216 is about as close to a PDII redux as you will ever see. Hr 216 850s - 7 surface around 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 QPF bombNice of you to join the party paul and even those im an amatuer doesnt take a genius to figure out this threat will not lack TONS of moisture over cold air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Hard to believe we have a thread this far out... Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Hard to believe we have a thread this far out... Yikes. Its not really, its been on ALL of the models for almost 3 days now, these southern systems are usually easier on the models. The Wednesday storm has been on the EURO since 240 hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 QPF bomb The key is that huge Arctic high over New England that holds it's ground while energy cuts underneath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Hour 228 relatively weak low pressure sitting off the NJ coast. CAD city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 The key is that huge Arctic high over New England that holds it's ground while energy cuts underneath.Stream of moisture from the south and weak LP with a cold dome high pressure does sound PDII like as yanks said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Hour 228 relatively weak low pressure sitting off the NJ coast. CAD city. So are you saying we switch to ice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The massive 50/50 low is why the high never retreats, happened in 1996 and PDII Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 So are you saying we switch to ice? There will be no ice with this system and i feel fairly confident in saying that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The key is that huge Arctic high over New England that holds it's ground while energy cuts underneath. Was more energetic out of the SE states So are you saying we switch to ice? As per Euro at 228 CNJ coast 850`s plus 2 surface 34 . Dont look at those details 9 days out , you will really drive urself nuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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