REDMK6GLI Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 The GFS did , the Euro was the same , but lets see what this looks like in 24 hours before you pull the ripcord .See no reason to pull the ripcord at all from here, this isnt like it went far OTS. The phasing was literally matter of hours off, take into account what has happened this year with trending inside 72 hours i see no reason why this wouldnt phase and come up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The SE ridge is usually why systems to its west become so amplified and dig (strong pressure/temperature gradient) so I don't see how it would prevent that from happening. Didn't we hope for a weaker SE ridge with the storm today so the storm couldn't amplify and cut. The SE Ridge being stronger will allow the front of the vort's heights to rise and the backside of the vort to dig and round up. The NAM had shown that for today's storm, but that was a few days ago. So having a stronger SE Ridge doesn't hurt our chances at all. Sent from my HTC PH39100 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Sorry, don't know if it's appropriate to post here, but this is similar sounding to PB GFI From Henry Margusity "I know the operational models have backed off the storm Sunday, but I don't buy it. I am seeing the NAO going to neutral and the PNA coming up to neutral which leads me to believe that as the trough digs in, there will be some phasing of the branches and a storm should develop along the coast. Patterns like this can bring surprises that the models do not see until within a day or so of the event. Look back on the Monday snow event. The models last week only shows a weak low running across the South with very little snow, but in the end, it turned out to be a major snowstorm for the parts of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. So my point is don't let the model runs be the answer today. Watch and see what happens." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Sorry, don't know if it's appropriate to post here, but this is similar sounding to PB GFI From Henry Margusity "I know the operational models have backed off the storm Sunday, but I don't buy it. I am seeing the NAO going to neutral and the PNA coming up to neutral which leads me to believe that as the trough digs in, there will be some phasing of the branches and a storm should develop along the coast. Patterns like this can bring surprises that the models do not see until within a day or so of the event. Look back on the Monday snow event. The models last week only shows a weak low running across the South with very little snow, but in the end, it turned out to be a major snowstorm for the parts of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. So my point is don't let the model runs be the answer today. Watch and see what happens." Now I wana take back everything i said - ugggg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Now I wana take back everything i said - ugggg Lol, admit it Paul you are really Henry j/k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Now I wana take back everything i said - ugggg haha I was shocked reading that too.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 Now I wana take back everything i said - ugggg The ax cometh down on the weekend system sir paul....STORM CANCEL!!! Hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Sorry, don't know if it's appropriate to post here, but this is similar sounding to PB GFI From Henry Margusity "I know the operational models have backed off the storm Sunday, but I don't buy it. I am seeing the NAO going to neutral and the PNA coming up to neutral which leads me to believe that as the trough digs in, there will be some phasing of the branches and a storm should develop along the coast. Patterns like this can bring surprises that the models do not see until within a day or so of the event. Look back on the Monday snow event. The models last week only shows a weak low running across the South with very little snow, but in the end, it turned out to be a major snowstorm for the parts of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. So my point is don't let the model runs be the answer today. Watch and see what happens." Margusity is in?! Well that's it. Its over. Throw all you weenies off a cliff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Lol, admit it Paul you are really Henry j/k. He`s really a nice guy , but he`s the K O D . If he forecasted back in Jan 1996 , we would have changed to rain . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The ax cometh down on the weekend system sir paul....STORM CANCEL!!! Hahaha might as well close this thread...haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 He`s really a nice guy , but he`s the K O D . If he forecasted back in Jan 1996 , we would have changed to rain . Yes well aware of his jinxing powers. I prefer it if he never would say anything about long range potential lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Question: how much pecip did the EURO throw back in the area? Similar to GFS or no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The NW trend and increase in intensity on the Canadian ensemble mean is rather evident when comparing the 12z run today at 84 hrs, vs. the 0z run at 96 hrs. The ensemble mean actually has the sign of decent snow up to South Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Going forward - one of the major players the upper level low off the northwest coast is going to be too far east and that will flatten the ridge out in the west and will not allow the trough in the east too dig as far so as of right now we are not going to have a major storm this weekend - maybe a light to moderate one ........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAMSTORM22 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Going forward - one of the major players the upper level low off the northwest coast is going to be too far east and that will flatten the ridge out in the west and will not allow the trough in the east too dig as far so as of right now we are not going to have a major storm this weekend - maybe a light to moderate one ........... Jw...why are you so sure,as opposed to others who think this still has a chance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Going forward - one of the major players the upper level low off the northwest coast is going to be too far east and that will flatten the ridge out in the west and will not allow the trough in the east too dig as far so as of right now we are not going to have a major storm this weekend - maybe a light to moderate one ........... Looks like you just copied and pasted what Steve D said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Jw...why are you so sure,as opposed to others who think this still has a chance? thats why I said " as of right now" thats the reason the on nearly all the models you don't have the trough digging in the east because that low is too far east on the models causing a flatter ridge in the west - until we see the models show that ULL off the northwest coast move further southwest then you will see the models start responding with a more amped up trough in the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Yes well aware of his jinxing powers. I prefer it if he never would say anything about long range potential lol. This is hilarious I think the complete opposite happens every forecast he makes for big storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Going forward - one of the major players the upper level low off the northwest coast is going to be too far east and that will flatten the ridge out in the west and will not allow the trough in the east too dig as far so as of right now we are not going to have a major storm this weekend - maybe a light to moderate one ........... I have been observing that feature on the 500mb model maps for days now and was wondering what impact it would have. It has bothered me since the very first time I noticed it. I think there is more to why the storm isn't materializing in the modeling right now but that feature is annoying me lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bricktamland Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 This is hilarious I think the complete opposite happens every forecast he makes for big storms Watch, tomorrow he'll start screaming OTS and we'll end up with a MECS by Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The 12z JMA does something interesting. At hour 72 the shortwave is down in the deep south and very amped up with the northern stream diving down the backside. The JMA then proceeds to miss the phase completely sending a strong low off the SE coast. This should have phased and produced a bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I still kind of like the potential look of this (Sunday timeframe). The s/w's are not in the perfect position to interact and phase as modeled right now, but the height lines are not very compressed to the north. That leaves room or amplification for either wave and possibly more interaction and a further NW SLP track and evolution. Even with an relatively unexciting upper level prog, most guidance still produces light to moderate QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 The 12z JMA does something interesting. At hour 72 the shortwave is down in the deep south and very amped up with the northern stream diving down the backside. The JMA then proceeds to miss the phase completely sending a strong low off the SE coast. This should have phased and produced a bomb. Just like the EURO and GFS the phase is literally hours off from producing a bomb on the EC and looking at the pattern there is room for further amplification Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomcatct Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 He`s really a nice guy , but he`s the K O D . If he forecasted back in Jan 1996 , we would have changed to rain . You're right we've been Mushed..as in eddie mush from a bronx tale....check out the video on you tube.... http://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=bronx%20tale%20horse%20race%20scene&sm=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Yeah, I lived through the 93 Superstorm, the Blizzard of 96, the President's Day II Storm(s), the Boxing Day Storm when I was in Maryland (all gave me between 20 and 29"). Even though PDII technically gave me the most in Annapolis at 29", 96 is no doubt my number 1 storm and still is because everything came together so well. (Lots of snow, single day, ACTUAL blizzard criteria met, heavy snow, massive drifting, everyone knew 1 week in advance, first time I saw military/coast guard on patrol, thunder snow, "snow-tornado" reports, schools closed for 4 days, very cold, very early in the year, etc.. plus people talked about it for years up and down the coast. Since I moved to Long Island, I experienced probably the heaviest snowfall ever - over 33" in less than a day last year - catching lots of people off guard straight from work, the reason being the deformation band stayed over my area the whole time even as it pivoted. But guess what, people 15 miles east and west and south of me got maybe half of that. People showed up to work a couple days later like it was no big deal because they didn't have to shovel 3-5 foot drifts like I did. And if I'm the only one at work who has stories to tell, then it's just a "cool story, bro" to everyone else instead of "omg yeah, that storm was incredible! i could walk onto the roof of my one story home from all the snow in that storm! etc..." February 78 had similar snowfall in the ground zero area for 2013, but 78 was more widespread and much much much windier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Not much help from the SREF, it's SE of the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 HPC going for a light to moderate event this weekend but in the discussion mentions it remains to be seen how much we get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 SREFs are close though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 HPC going for a light to moderate event this weekend but in the discussion mentions it remains to be seen how much we get That map right there should show you how close we are to getting something bigger. This is prime time for models to go S&E only to correct N&W and its especially true in this winter when the storms that hit us were forecasted an zilch ended up being widespread 8-12"+ storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 February 78 had similar snowfall in the ground zero area for 2013, but 78 was more widespread and much much much windier. I have seen all of those storms as well. The feb 78 storm had times when the visibility was near 0. Number 1 on my list Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.