packbacker Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Every model has ILM as a ice skating rink tomorrow through Thursday, I would prepare for the worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 UK just came in wetter for RDU, looks like roughly 0.5" too... Yeah, right now I think around the .5 qpf mark for RDU is a good call. Going to be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fury88 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The GFS has trended less QPF for the Triangle for 3 consecutive runs now. I noticed that, too. And the NAM seems to be heading in the other direction again. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The GFS has trended less QPF for the Triangle for 3 consecutive runs now. Yeah, but every model now has 0.4-0.5" of precip, that's a pretty good consensus, which would be 4-6" of all snow, take that all day, just need to hold on. I was surprised to see the UK so juiced, it was at least 0.5" for RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 What's the scale on that UK Met map, Packbacker? That looks like a decent hit for the whole state of NC (more further east, obviously). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 What's the scale on that UK Met map, Packbacker? That looks like a decent hit for the whole state of NC (more further east, obviously). Here you go, the plymouth UK should be updated too but I don't have those book marked, it's easier to read on there. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=72&carte=1021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 But what about what Robert said? I think the models are showing what Robert said, all models are ticking NW with more precip, let's forget the crazy 18z GFS run, that ain't happening, we have a great chance to get 4-6" of snow (knock on wood). But thinking 2-4" (0.3" of precip) will be most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Here you go, the plymouth UK should be updated too but I don't have those book marked, it's easier to read on there. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=72&carte=1021 Thanks. The UK Met barely showed anything west of Raleigh at 00z last night, so that's a pretty sizable shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrhardin Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The GFS has trended less QPF for the Triangle for 3 consecutive runs now. While this is true, there is also growing consensus around the 0.5" mark. Not too shabby and a nice warning criteria event. Regarding the RAH press release...they have conveyed their thoughts well probabilistically in terms of accumulations. The middle scenario is expected, but the lower/higher accumulations are possible. Based on probabilistic output, a higher chance exists for more accumulation in the Triangle rather than lower. This is reflected in the highest probabilities of snow greater than a foot not being along the I-95 corridor, but along the highway 1 corridor. I'm in no way saying that outcome is likely, just that the skew of the ensembles suggests this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 But what about what Robert said?He said he's not worried what bigger models are showing ,as they don't have a handle on the situation. Look at short term models and water vapor here on in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Thanks. The UK Met barely showed anything west of Raleigh at 00z last night, so that's a pretty sizable shift. That and the euro was the Rah nws bread and butter in overnight afd. Totally dished the American suite. Watch today afd it will be polar opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I was just about to post that. It's a good bit wetter than any prior run, especially on the north side. One thing we all need to remember in scenarios such as this, is the potential for some serious OVERRUNNING. Also the jet enhancement dynamics will be optimal in our region(s). Overall, Weather Models have always had issues with nailing the impact that overrunning can cause. I feel that we all will be in for more of a positive impact (if you want snow) than what is being depicted. I say game on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fury88 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 While this is true, there is also growing consensus around the 0.5" mark. Not too shabby and a nice warning criteria event. Regarding the RAH press release...they have conveyed their thoughts well probabilistically in terms of accumulations. The middle scenario is expected, but the lower/higher accumulations are possible. Based on probabilistic output, a higher chance exists for more accumulation in the Triangle rather than lower. This is reflected in the highest probabilities of snow greater than a foot not being along the I-95 corridor, but along the highway 1 corridor. I'm in no way saying that outcome is likely, just that the skew of the ensembles suggests this. I know somewhere buried in this thread there was a description of how to grab those plume graphs. Those are great at showing this exactly but I can't seem to find it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 While this is true, there is also growing consensus around the 0.5" mark. Not too shabby and a nice warning criteria event. Regarding the RAH press release...they have conveyed their thoughts well probabilistically in terms of accumulations. The middle scenario is expected, but the lower/higher accumulations are possible. Based on probabilistic output, a higher chance exists for more accumulation in the Triangle rather than lower. This is reflected in the highest probabilities of snow greater than a foot not being along the I-95 corridor, but along the highway 1 corridor. I'm in no way saying that outcome is likely, just that the skew of the ensembles suggests this. Yea. the 0.5 mark seems to be showing up pretty consistently now. I still think we get at least 6 inches here, and maybe more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I know somewhere buried in this thread there was a description of how to grab those plume graphs. Those are great at showing this exactly but I can't seem to find it. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Using the Plymouth maps...the UK drops .25 or more around RDU by 0Z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 You RDU folks should take you .5 and run. Im sitting here hoping for a dusting! Y'all are about to get .5 and complaining. C'mon. It was looking like nothing a couple of days ago. But I suspect a good snow for most. Especially how bad models are handling it! Good luck everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Thanks. The UK Met barely showed anything west of Raleigh at 00z last night, so that's a pretty sizable shift. That was a big shift for the UK. The JMA just went west a pretty good bit too. Has RDU in 0.5"+, with 0.75" right on the Wake County line, has GSO in the 0.25-0.5" range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Using the Plymouth maps...the UK drops .25 or more around RDU by 0Z tomorrow. Can you post the URL for that, I want to bookmark it, thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 You RDU folks should take you .5 and run. Im sitting here hoping for a dusting! Y'all are about to get .5 and complaining. C'mon. It was looking like nothing a couple of days ago. But I suspect a good snow for most. Especially how bad models are handling it! Good luck everyone. Agreed, anyone who can get 0.5" as all snow and is complaining is crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fury88 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/ Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 You RDU folks should take you .5 and run. Im sitting here hoping for a dusting! Y'all are about to get .5 and complaining. C'mon. It was looking like nothing a couple of days ago. But I suspect a good snow for most. Especially how bad models are handling it! Good luck everyone. I'm not complaining...If I get .5 qpf I'll be dancing in the streets! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 RAP still backing the polar energy west bit by bit every hour. PV also trending farther north as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Giving the SREF plumes a quick look for GSP. Looks like mean is 3.11", snowiest member is 11.5. There are 17 members showing 1.3" or more and 5 showing nothing or just flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I think the models are showing what Robert said, all models are ticking NW with more precip, let's forget the crazy 18z GFS run, that ain't happening, we have a great chance to get 4-6" of snow (knock on wood). But thinking 2-4" (0.3" of precip) will be most likely. The 12z RGEM seems about as good a place as any to start. It matches up fairly well with a middle of the road solution, not extreme as some guidance over the past several days, and don't as dry or as far east as others, namely the foreign suite from 24-48hrs ago. There are some discrepancies between the meso and globals with respect to thermal profiles, I would hedge towards the mesoscale models at this range with respect to transitions zones. Very challenging forecast for the coastal Carolinas, maybe a little more certain as you head down into SC east of 95. RGEM and NAM thickness plots are a good match, it is going to be very hard to get SN with 850-700mb thick >1550m, and I would give alot of weight to the RGEM transition zones. Should be mainly IP with some SN east of 95 in NC to about 40, Crystal Coast may flirt with some ZR immediate coastal sections. From ILM down to CHS will likely be the epicenter for ZR, inland areas of SC back to 95 one hell of a IP event. Confidence is increasing for a 4-8" event along a line from FAY to ORF, RDU may be above 4", jackpot likely somewhere in NE NC that can manage to stay all SN. 12z NAM puts down 1/2" IP here Tuesday night which brings ratios down to an avg of 10:1, prior to and after they are closer to 15:1, but the IP hurt the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I'm not complaining...If I get .5 qpf I'll be dancing in the streets! I bet after Euro RAH throws up WSW's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Can you post the URL for that, I want to bookmark it, thanks! http://vortex.plymouth.edu/make.html Scroll down on the left and choose "Composite Overlays" under the "Model Forecast Maps" header. The UK is only shown every 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 We know the SREF plumes are pretty decently on the high end, but why? check this link http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21500US_9z/srefloop.html Now mouse-over and watch the southern energy. Is it just me or do most of the members have the northern branch phasing or at least picking up some if not most of that southern vort? On previous runs, only a few picked it up...now most do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrhardin Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Barring any wild changes in the models expect WSW to go up a bit further west across the RAH CWA with another row of WWA extending towards the Triad. The WWA more for impact than anything. There may also be a period of sleet for the SE counties tomorrow evening due to a pronounced warm nose. This shouldn't last more than a couple of hours and should move over to all snow shortly after dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I bet after Euro RAH throws up WSW's At this point I would be surprised if they didn't raise WSW regardless of what the EURO says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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