Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 GFS 18z likes central and northern IL Looks a little north as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 the 18z NAM drops 0.6" of ZR on LAF, taken verbatim. EDIT: likely some sleet mixing in at times to temper ZR rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Looks a little north as well. SV snowmaps have 4-6 for chi metro and 6-8 from pia-det Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 3-6 inch consensus now excellent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 This would be a bit of a problem. Warm layer not very torchy here though on this model so wonder if it would be more sleet than depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I'm wondering if this can finally be one of the classic NW trenders, not holding my breath though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 A fairly impressive system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Instantwx map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 This would be a bit of a problem. Warm layer not very torchy here though on this model so wonder if it would be more sleet than depicted. Untitled.png Yeah, I wondered that too after another look at the soundings. The warm layer gets quite deep at times though, even if not very torchy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 the 18z NAM drops 0.6" of ZR on LAF, taken verbatim. EDIT: likely some sleet mixing in at times to temper ZR rates Oops, just saw your post. Yeah, this would be interesting lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Yeah, I wondered that too after another look at the soundings. The warm layer gets quite deep at times though, even if not very torchy. Looks like the warm layer is about 150-175 mb thick for a while so even if max warm layer temps are borderline for complete melting, that depth might do it...if it's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 GFS through Sunday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Yeah, I wondered that too after another look at the soundings. The warm layer gets quite deep at times though, even if not very torchy. 18z GFS looks warmer aloft than the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 feeling pretty bullish, i'll say 4.5" IMBY with the Fri/Sat event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 18z GFS looks warmer aloft than the 12z run. Looks like it might change over quicker to sleet/snow than the NAM, but more solidly ZR at the front end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Instantwx map 18zNAM_012914.png Happy plowing..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Mike Caplan on twitter mentioning 6-10". Usually not bullish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 First thoughts for here are 3-5" from Thu through Sat afternoon. Things are looking up now that some consensus is starting to gather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 my backyard looking like it will be ON the rain/snow/slop line for this one. Regardless looks to start as a period of wet snow before slopping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 feeling pretty bullish, i'll say 4.5" IMBY with the Fri/Sat event. Good call. Widespread 3-6 looks like a good call for the CWA. More to the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Interesting that the models seem to be ticking back to the earlier northern solutions. Outside one run, the GGEM has seemed to be the only one that didn't waver. A rare possible win for it. I wouldn't be surprised if there aren't some more northern corrections as we get closer. These types of systems can be sneaky. All in all, my general IL/IN call would be little frozen and less freezing for LAF than currently modeled...mixing getting to or a bit north of I-80 (guarantee in IN, but possible in IL too)...and the best snow amounts along and north of I-80 (more so for IL). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Interesting that the models seem to be ticking back to the earlier northern solutions. Outside one run, the GGEM has seemed to be the only one that didn't waver. A rare possible win for it. I wouldn't be surprised if there aren't some more northern corrections as we get closer. These types of systems can be sneaky. All in all, my general IL/IN call would be little frozen and less freezing for LAF than currently modeled...mixing getting to or a bit north of I-80 (guarantee in IN, but possible in IL too)...and the best snow amounts along and north of I-80 (more so for IL). GGEM gets a lot of hate but there's no reason not to look at it...it's not that much worse of a model within 4 or 5 days. Complicating factor for us is the cold ground. I could see us having icing problems and by the time the ground warms enough, temps start falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 GGEM gets a lot of hate but there's no reason not to look at it...it's not that much worse of a model within 4 or 5 days. Complicating factor for us is the cold ground. I could see us having icing problems and by the time the ground warms enough, temps start falling. Yeah, ground is cold. That is definitely something to watch, even as temps warm above freezing here. Seen that happen before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 yeah GGEM has been consistent and deserves props so far and I can definitely see cold surface temps playing a role in any ice scenario...hopefully pingers win out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 My cousin in nw IN now telling me that Skilling is making a call of 4-6" for the Friday night/Sat system for metro Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Lock in the 18z GFS/NAM please!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afterimage Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Yeah, ground is cold. That is definitely something to watch, even as temps warm above freezing here. Seen that happen before. I reading IND and IWX they both are concerned with low level cold and the mix/ice is a worry, it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Lock in the 18z GFS/NAM please!!! if models stay consistent, WSW worthy say friday? I see GGEM still has rain for us after the frontal.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 if models stay consistent, WSW worthy say friday? I see GGEM still has rain for us after the frontal.. Not saying it won't be correct, but the GGEM is sort of an outlier right now. Just about every other model has mostly/all snow for us. As far as WSW worthiness, seems borderline right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 You don't want detroit to put up a kiss of death wsw anyways lol.. This yr se mi can do no wrong so I don't see a wsw jinx coming in to play anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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