LithiaWx Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 18z NAM is at hour 21 pbp coming now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 At hour 25 the southern vort is dropping down the pacific coast off central Cali. There are some visual and placement changes in the vort form 12z at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Out to 24 the NAM already has some changes. Energy up north much more consolidated. Doesn't have that piece in the west seperated which really digs on the 12z NAM. Energy off the Cali coast is cutoff and further south. Though it does look to be moving slightly east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 @33 that energy in western Canada is finally starting to form. That's going to play a key role. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 @30, no longer a split PV tail coming into MT like the past 3 runs, H5 almost looks like the model was run at a coarser res. Edit, nevermind, something is screwy with the 30 hr panel on the model center, 36 is out now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I will say this @36 that trough looks better. The energy up in western Canada should dig a little better than 12z but we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 @30, no longer a split PV tail coming into MT like the past 3 runs, H5 almost looks like the model was run at a coarser res. Edit, nevermind, something is screwy with the 30 hr panel on the model center, 36 is out now. It kind of materializes out of nowhere at 33-36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Looking at the plumes on the SREF at 15z wasn't good. At all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Looking at the plumes on the SREF at 15z wasn't good. At all. Nope dried up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 36hr, very light snow starts in LA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 12z Euro ens good news. It is similar to the 0z and much wetter than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Hour 48 he nam may be trying to hold some of the southern energy back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Yep @48 it doesn't look like the NAM is going to cut it. Northern energy looks weak and that energy in the SW looks like it might get held back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 At 54hrs that little patch in La gains size Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 yea, 57 hours the patch shrinks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Slower can be better... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 NAM looks like it's going to try to throw us a bone still but it aint gonna look pretty in the end I suspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 I have been sent requests for amts. So, Euro ens snow 12z 1"+ snow not as far SW as Gainseville but Jax 1", Waycross 2, SAV 2.5, CHS 3, and ILM 4. Inland, Mcn to Cola to RDU 2. ATL to Gsp to Clt 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Well not a good trend on the NAM out to 48 so let's get that out of the way first. After that something may be going on with the NAM. It just looks weird. @72 it's got some weird jump with the energy that looks all screwy to me then it starts diving down hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Difference between 06Z and 18Z at 200mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Folks will want to look at the last panel and extrapolate. I would throw this run out after around hour 60. It just looked really wonky to me and that due shift east power up it did @72 just looked like the NAM was on crack tonight...more so than it always is at that time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 the key to this run vs the last run is the upper low/shortwave is further south initially off the coast of california. the 12z run was northeast of this. Due to it's further south position, there is more separation early on between it and the northern stream. However, the nam looks stronger at 500mb with this feature as it crosses mexico than the 12z run. It obviously is further south overall but it's still trying with a large shield of precipitation. radar at 78 and 81 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 84 hour. Looks like a big hit for central and southern ga, SC, coast, etc. not as good as the 12z run but there should still be some decent snow in the interior . (central ga, sc, central and eastern nc later) if this run was right. Things haven't been great today and this run isn't as good for us in the north but at least it didn't lose it. Again though, this is the long range nam so folks should take it with a grain of salt. Loop. http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/model/mod/index.php?type=18-NAM-US-sfc-radar-78-1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 With all the trends not in our favor, how big of a long shot is a se snow right now? It's crazy that we can't buy a storm. But this one is far from over. When models agree when they have a sample then the fat lady can sing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Difference between 06Z and 18Z at 200mb Would someone please help me in understanding the jets in play. Reference the graphics Dracula posted above, that looks to me like the polar and Arctic jets are already phased at the base of the PV in eastern Canada, which in turn phases, or at-least partially interacts with the sub-trop. Just trying to understand better. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 84 hour. Looks like a big hit for central and southern ga, SC, coast, etc. not as good as the 12z run but there should still be some decent snow in the interior. (central ga, sc, central and eastern nc later) You can tell just by looking at the loop. Things haven't been great today but at least it didn't lose it. Again though, this is the long range nam so folks should take it with a grain of salt. Loop. http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/model/mod/index.php?type=18-NAM-US-sfc-radar-78-1 That doesn't look bad for Atlanta at all....Would be a few hours of moderate snow at least judging from that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Guys, this deep cold pocket means business. 26 here in the triad for a high on tuesday? Why wouldnt we all be on the suppression train? If anything the models have trended towards a gulf coast and deep south event and possibly a dry event while the cold just pounds away. Seems like anything coming out at this point will simply hit a brick wall. (Speaking only in regards to the upper carolinas, ga appears in play) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 Per new NWS forecast for Waycross: TUESDAY COOLER. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SNOW AND LIGHT SLEET. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. WEDNESDAY PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Love the info y'all provide but could someone please explain something for me right fast(I hope this is not a suspension worthy question) I see a lot of people on here saying it looks bad. It that for far inland areas or for within 50 miles of the coast areas? Just a little confused with some maps I have seen and some comments I have seen. Thanks for the help and GO DONATE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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