Hoosier Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 You're heading up. I'm heading down. I was thinking 10-12" in MIE earlier, but looking at the 0z models and the fact that we are 3C warmer than modeled right now, I think 6-8" is more likely. Hopefully the precip rates will deal with the warm layer, but 850 warmth always seems to be undermodeled, and I don't put much faith in precip rates. I've never experienced a 1'+ snowfall, and this looks like it may be another epic miss for Muncie. Yeah man, it's so close. Good luck there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 I feel like ORD has been at 3/4 mile vis for over 2 hours straight now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torgo Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Tough to tell with the 12 hours maps. 0z CMC looks slightly east of its track and has a major gradient setup. 4-6" for the GTA with near 12" up towards Barrie. cmc_snow_acc_toronto_8.png Is there any way you can put up that map for Northern Ohio? I was about to write this off where I live but extrapolating the heavy snow area downward, it looks like I might luck out after all if the CMC verifies. It would be much appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Went outside for about 10 mins. Friendly 0.1 or 0.2" down. Steady stream of -SN falling. Visibility is lowering but the flakes are quite granular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 I'm thinking that total is very possible here too... This band tonight is overachieving. Yep. Models are finally picking up on pre big dog snows with snow blowing up just South of the stl metro and moving ENE. RAP is finally pick up on pre big dog FGEN band here the next 6-8 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Pay no mind we're torching well above guidance here right now... ...but, 0z NAM text output for LAF. Heavy heavy rates for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Paducah and Louisville really need to take down some of their warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 1.7" so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 about 1" here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Flake size has improved, along with the wind really picking up. Blowing and drifting starting to occur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Pay no mind we're torching well above guidance here right now... ...but, 0z NAM text output for LAF. Heavy heavy rates for a time. 1:5 0z nam text.png Payback for that 3" of rain with temp of 33-36 a few weeks ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 RAP is goin deep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 decent amount in north central IL RELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 1111 PM CST SAT JAN 04 2014 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 1100 PM SNOW SOMONAUK 41.63N 88.68W 01/04/2014 M4.4 INCH LA SALLE IL PUBLIC STORM TOTAL SO FAR RELAYED VIA TWITTER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Payback for that 3" of rain with temp of 33-36 a few weeks ago? I suppose. We're not really worthy. Seriously. Things have have gone very well in LAF with big storms in the past 7 years, for the most part. Not that I won't enjoy this immensely if it comes to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Up to 2.5" here. Even though it's only 2.5" it is a much more dense snow compared to what we've seen much of the season. Still snowing but this wave is moving on. Hopefully we can get another wave or two to bring another inch or two later tonight or tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 RAP is goin deep The 15 hour frame has it at 1004 mb on the site I'm using. 5 mb drop in 3 hours.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 The oh so popular weenie model does not disappoint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Not a flake here yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Flurries flying again as moisture surges back this direction. Temp starting to drop now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Not a flake here yet. Millions are a comin. At a friends at 16 (metro pkwy) and garfield and I'm surprised its snowing here. Didn't think this band was going to come south of 59 until morning. looks like half an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Latest Nam wrf looks good for YYZ. Stays all snow away from the Lake and possibly around 5-8" of cement. This is truly a now-casting event. Still snowing here. About 0.3" down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Millions are a comin. At a friends at 16 (metro pkwy) and garfield and I'm surprised its snowing here. Didn't think this band was going to come south of 59 until morning. looks like half an inch. Yeah, true. I can't complain because I-94 has been doing amazing up to this point. Like a magnet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Just got home from work 15 minutes ago and took a measurement....3.5" and the roads are really snow covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Mayor of Lafayette has declared a snow emergency. No travel restrictions but wouldn't be surprised to see them later especially in rural areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 RAP is wetter and slower every run. Going to be a band of 15-22" from South St. Louis up towards LAF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 RAP is wetter and slower every run. Going to be a band of 15-22" from South St. Louis up towards LAF No there won't. 12-16" with isolated higher amounts, but 15-22" in a general band is overdone. Ratios aren't high enough to support a forecast like that. Could be some isolated reports with extreme amounts but nothing supports 15-22" in the main swath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Fairly substantial differences at 500 mb on the 04z RAP vs. the 00z NAM. The 04z RAP is noticeably more amplified than the 00z NAM with the southern stream wave at 21z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 NAM on the left and RAP on the right. Image quality kinda came out poor...sorry The differences with the GFS are even more substantial Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Euro is .88" at TOL which is the wettest in days here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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