January 4-6th Winter Storm Part 3

[blizzardof96]

Whereabouts in the city are you exactly? Near the 401?

401 and avenue.

[Chicago WX]

This feels like last years "blizzard" lots of hype for little output. I may break down and begin crying if it rains here tomorrow. We will see how it goes. Drove by the county highway barn today and they have the big V plows out. Surely even with 6" we can see two to four feet drifts in this wind.

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What blizzard last year? If you're talking about the late March storm...that one delivered and more. Granted, wasn't a blizzard...but wasn't forecasted to be either. MIE area is in a tough spot right now...can't sugar coat it. Hopefully it goes well.

[B-Rent]

They did issue blizzard warnings for it. I only remember that because it was the first time my EAS activated on my phone. It did under deliver by at least two inches here. But that's in the past. .

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[snowstormcanuck]

What is a max band?

 

I thought 4-8" was going to be the range in the heaviest swath of snow. It's going to be more than that for parts of IN and MI.

[Chicago WX]

They did issue blizzard warnings for it. I only remember that because it was the first time my EAS activated on my phone. It did under deliver by at least two inches here. But that's in the past. .

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Now I remember...it was the Dec 26, 2012 storm. Gotcha. You sure you did that poorly though?

 

[Snowstorms]

401 and avenue.

 

Its getting heavier in my area too. Dusting everywhere. Visibility is going down. 

[Torchageddon]

Temperatures are marginal but YYZ stays all snow on the 18z GFS.

 

4-7" and more the further north you go. 

 

18z RGEM is brutal. 2" of snow then rain. 

 

F*ck this winter! 

My winter has been pretty intense so far, lots of snow but it could always be a little better. Because I'm in the snow-belt, my standards are very high. You could always go snow-chasing along the Huron shoreline where its a dream come true for snow lovers.

 

Its getting heavier in my area too. Dusting everywhere. Visibility is going down. 

Are you "back in the game"?   

[blizzardof96]

0z UKMET track the low from N AR to cincy and on northeast over YYZ

[snowstormcanuck]

0z UKMET track the low from N AR to cindy and on northeast over YYZ

 

I hope Cindy lives in ROC.

[cyclone77]

Solid moderate snow out there now.  Probably breached the 2" mark with this latest wave. 

[Snowstorms]

0z UKMET track the low from N AR to cindy and on northeast over YYZ

 

Whats the precip type like? 

[Chicago WX]

I hope Cindy lives in ROC.

 

Haha

[blizzardof96]

Whats the precip type like? 

Tough to tell with the 12 hours maps. 0z CMC looks slightly east of its track and has a major gradient setup. 4-6" for the GTA with near 12" up towards Barrie.

[Hoosier]

Although the 00z Euro is not in, I'm feeling fairly good about bumping my call into the 12-15 inch range.  Really seems like the higher-res models have been leading the way in the past 24 hours or so and there is very good agreement between the SREF mean/NAM/RGEM/GGEM on precip amounts around here with even the drier models not too far behind. I'm not sold on ratios being that good given forecast soundings, somewhat marginal temps early on and upstream reports so thinking something around 10-12:1 at the beginning and trending toward 15:1 or a bit higher at the end.  There is a chance that it could be a top 5 snowstorm for Lafayette.

 

As mentioned before, the magnitude of the snow and the rapidity/magnitude of the temperature plunge make for a rare, nearly unprecedented event here in Lafayette...especially in modern times, with perhaps the best "analog" (not synoptically speaking but weather conditions-wise) for such a thing being the January 11-12, 1918 event, though it appears that one had higher winds and less snow here.  Very exciting stuff.   

[Snowstorms]

My winter has been pretty intense so far, lots of snow but it could always be a little better. Because I'm in the snow-belt, my standards are very high. You could always go snow-chasing along the Huron shoreline where its a dream come true for snow lovers.

 

Are you "back in the game"? 

 

Lmao, nope! I gave up a long time ago. I'm just here rejoicing my flakes and all, nothing new. It has given me edge to scrutinize everything since nothing ever plays fair in my area. 

 

If I lived in the snow-belt, I wouldn't bicker if I'm getting walloped by Lake Effect snow every week. But congrats to you and everyone around me! Winter is dead mystery in the GTA! 

[Boogieman]

1.25" here so far in Swartz Creek, MI. Hoping for much more!

Looks about the same in Flint twp as well. I shoveled off my deck before the snow started and it's right about there.

[snowlord81]

Although the 00z Euro is not in, I'm feeling fairly good about bumping my call into the 12-15 inch range.  Really seems like the higher-res models have been leading the way in the past 24 hours or so and there is very good agreement between the SREF mean/NAM/RGEM/GGEM on precip amounts around here with even the drier models not too far behind. I'm not sold on ratios being that good given forecast soundings, somewhat marginal temps early on and upstream reports so thinking something around 10-12:1 at the beginning and trending toward 15:1 or a bit higher at the end.  There is a chance that it could be a top 5 snowstorm for Lafayette.

 

As mentioned before, the magnitude of the snow and the rapidity/magnitude of the temperature plunge make for a rare, nearly unprecedented event here in Lafayette...especially in modern times, with perhaps the best "analog" (not synoptically speaking but weather conditions-wise) for such a thing being the January 11-12, 1918 event, though it appears that one had higher winds and less snow here.  Very exciting stuff.   

Enjoy it Hoosier. Im hoping I can avoid any mixing. It will be the closest thing to a blizzard that ive seen.

[Snowstorms]

Tough to tell with the 12 hours maps. 0z CMC looks slightly east of its track and has a major gradient setup. 4-6" for the GTA with near 12" up towards Barrie.

cmc_snow_acc_toronto_8.png

 

Thanks for that man! Very sharp cut off. Based on the CMC, north of the 401 amounts are 6"+ or 15cm+. Its very temperature dependent. Lets see if our snow cover can save us! LOL. 

 

What an awful set-up for us again. Always on the edge everytime. 

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Lmao, nope! I gave up a long time ago. I'm just here rejoicing my flakes and all, nothing new. It has given me edge to scrutinize everything since nothing ever plays fair in my area. 

 

If I lived in the snow-belt, I wouldn't bicker if I'm getting walloped by Lake Effect snow every week. But congrats to you and everyone around me! Winter is dead mystery in the GTA!

Man, you have a short memory. Last February, we had two major storms in Toronto, with one of them giving us over a foot!

Snowing steadily in my area by the way...

[Toronto4]

http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/fx/fxcn01.cwao..txt

 

00z model discussion from Environment Canada/CMC. They note a slower and deeper trend, which means a slower progression of the warm front tomorrow evening. This trend could result in a longer period of snow for the GTA before a quick changeover to rain.

 

FXCN01 CWAO 050330
OPERATIONAL RUN STATUS
ALL RUNS ARE ON TIME AND RUNNING SMOOTHLY.
REGIONAL MODEL INITIALIZATION FROM 050000 UTC
TRIAL FIELDS
THE TRIAL FIELD COMPARED VERY WELL WITH THE ANALYSIS OVER NORTH AMERICA WITH
THE FOLLOWING EXCEPTIONS. THE EAST SIDE OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN ON AND THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE UPPER VORTEX WERE 1 TO 2 DAM WEAKER THAN THE ANALYSIS.
RUN R1 BOGUS
NO BOGUS PERFORMED.
DATA COVERAGE
20 PERCENT MORE AIRS.
20 PERCENT LESS SSMIS.
15 PERCENT LESS ATVOS AMSUA.
10 PERCENT MORE IASI.
10 PERCENT MORE SAT WINDS.
THE REMAINDER OF THE DATA WAS WITHIN 10% OF NORMAL.
MSG CANADIAN RAOBS..
PARTS C AND D FROM 71082 ALERT, NU AND 71909 IQALUIT, NU AND PARTS A THROUGH D
FROM 71802 MT. PEARL, NL.
REJECTED DATA
71867: CYQD : THE PAS A, MB: TEMP AT 850 MB WAS LIKELY INCORRECTLY REJECTED
AS THE SOUNDING LOOKS GOOD CONSIDERING THE SURFACE TEMP AND THE HEIGHT OF THE
LOW LEVEL INVERSION.
72747: KINL : INTERNATIONAL FALLS, MN: TEMP AT 850 MB WAS LIKELY
INCORRECTLY REJECTED AS THE SOUNDING LOOKS GOOD CONSIDERING THE SURFACE TEMP
AND THE HEIGHT OF THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION.
70308: PASN : ST. PAUL ISLANDS, AK: TEMP AT 250 MB WAS LIKELY INCORRECTLY
REJECTED AS THE TROPOPAUSE NEAR THAT LEVEL ON THE TRIAL FIELD IS TOO SMOOTHED
AND THUS TOO WARM.
71836: CWZC : MOOSONEE UA, ON: TEMP AT 700 MB WAS LIKELY INCORRECTLY
REJECTED AS THE TRIAL FIELD MISSED SOME MOISTURE NEAR THIS LEVEL AND THUS IT
WAS TOO WARM.
72214: KTLH : TALLAHASSEE REGIONAL AIRPORT, FL: TEMP AT 500 MB WAS LIKELY
CORRECTLY REJECTED AS THE SOUNDING TRACE IS SUSPECT COMING OUT OF A SLIGHTLY
MOIST LAYER.
72233: KASD : SLIDELL/MUN. LA: TEMP AT 850 MB WAS LIKELY INCORRECTLY
REJECTED AS THE TRIAL FIELD MISSED SOME MOISTURE NEAR THIS LEVEL AND THUS IT
WAS TOO WARM.
72248: KSHV : SHREVEPORT/REG., LA: TEMP AT 850 MB WAS LIKELY CORRECTLY
REJECTED AS THE SOUNDING TRACE IS SUSPECT COMING OUT OF A SLIGHTLY MOIST LAYER.
RUN R1 OA
THE OA CORRECTED SOME OF THE ISSUES NOTED IN THE TRIAL FIELD WITH THE FOLLLOWING
FOUND THROUGH A SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS OF THE OA. THE UPPER TROF OVER THE GULF OF
AK WAS A LITTLE WEAKER THE UPPER RIDGE WEST OF HAIDA GWAII TO CENTRAL AK WAS
SOMEWHAT STRONGER THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WAS A BIT WEAKER THE UPPER TROF OVER MO/IA WAS SLIGHTLY WEAKER WHILE
THE UPPER RIDGE FROM ME TO CENTRAL QC WAS A TAD WEAKER THAN THE OA.
REGIONAL PERFORMANCE FOR 24 HR PD ENDING 050000Z
MASS FIELDS VERIFICATION...
FOR THE LO OVR NRN ONTARIO, THE RDPS VERIFIED TOO DP WITH THE SFC TROF THRU THE
UPR GRTLKS (BY UP TO 3MB IN THE 24H FCST BUT UP TO 8MB IN THE 36H FCST). AT
UPR LVLS, THE UPR TROF WAS FCST TOO DP OVR THE UPR MIDWEST/WRN GRTLKS TO SRN AB
IN THE 24H AND ERLIER FCSTS BY UP TO 6DAM. THE UPR RDG OVR THE W CST WAS A BIT
TOO SLOW/STG RESULTING IN 500MB HGT ERRORS OF UP TO 5DAM OVR THE GLF OF AK. FOR
THE INTENSE LO OVR THE NORTH ATLC, THE 04/00Z RUN TRACKED THE SYS TOO FAR EAST
AND WAS NOT DP ENUF BY UP TO 5MB IN THE SW PART OF THE SYSTEM (THE 48H FCST
WAS WORSE WITH ERRORS UP TO 15MB). THE BAFFIN BAY LOW AND NT HIGH VERIFIED OK.
QPF VERIFICATION...
RDPS 00-24H QPF VERIFIED TOO FAR E WITH THE PTN OVR NF, WITH SNOWFALL AMTS
OVR ERN NF COMING IN 10-20CM HIGHER THAN FCST. FOR EXAMPLE, 20-30CM OF
SNOW WAS REPD FM BONAVISTA TO ST. JOHN'S BUT ONLY ABOUT 10-15 WAS FCST. THE
RDPS PERFORMED FAIRLY WELL WITH THE SYSTEM OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC, BUT QPF WAS
UNDERFCST N OF LKSUPR (EG. PUKASKWA AND WAWA), AND THE MAX AMTS WERE PLACED TOO
FAR SOUTH IN NERN ONTARIO AND WRN QC (AND CONSEQUENTLY UNDERFCSTG SNOWFALL BY
5CM OR MORE FM KAPUSKASING TO VAL D'OR). RDPS QPF VERIFIED WELL OVR WRN RGNS
AND THE ARCTIC.
REGIONAL 12 AND 24 HR PROG
INTENSE STORM OVR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...
THERE IS NO SIG CHANGE IN THE NEW RDPS GUIDANCE FOR THIS SYS OVR CAN WATERS
COMPARED WITH THE OLD 04/12Z RUN. THE RDPS IS STILL A FEW MB WKR IN THE SW
QUAD OF THE SYS COMPARED WITH THE FOREIGN GUIDANCE, BUT IT IS ONLY CLOSER TO
THE LO CENTRE THAT THIS WOULD HAVE ANY IMPACT ON THE FCST WINDS. OTWZ THE RDPS
LOOKS OK WITH THIS SYS AND IS ACCEPTED.
WKNG LO OVR JMSBA...
THIS SYS HAS BEEN WELL HANDLED BY THE MODELS, AND THE NEW RUN OF THE RDPS IS
NOT SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT FM THE PREV RUNS, WKNG IT TO ABOUT 1010MB OVR SRN
HSNBA BY T24 (00Z MON). THE RDPS GUIDANCE IS ACCEPTED HERE.
DVLPG STORM MOVG FM TEXAS TWDS SRN ONTARIO...
THE RDPS HAS BEEN TRACKING THIS SYS SLIGHTLY FRTHR WEST WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE
RUN, AND NOW THE NEW RUN HAS A SIMILAR TRACK BUT IS A BIT SLOWER. THIS
ADJUSTMENT STEMS FROM A SLOWING OF THE UPR WV OVR SRN COLORADO AT 00Z.. RAOBS
850MB TEMPS INDICATE A BIT MORE AMPLITUDE TO THE THERMAL WV OVR OKLAHOMA AT 00Z
THAN ANALYZED BY THE RDPS, WHICH CUD RESULT IN A STILL SLOWER, DPR SYSTEM. THESE
INDICATIONS ARE IN SPITE OF THE 04/12Z RUN FOREIGN MODEL CONSENSUS BEING SEVERAL
MB WKR AND FRTHR EAST TRACKING THAN THE RDPS (THE GFS WAS FURTHEST EAST).
LOOKING AT THE NEW 00Z RUN OF THE FOREIGN MODELS, THE GFS APPEARS TO CORRECT
ITS TRACK WESTWARD, WHILE THE NEW NAM REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE PREV RUN, KEEPING
A TRACK SIMILAR TO THE RDPS BUT A BIT FASTER WITH THE BACK OF THE SYSTEM BY
T36 AND WKR WITH THE COLD FNTL TROF. THE UKMET HAS ALSO SHIFTED WWD IN THE
NEW RUN. SO WE ARE SEEING THE MODELS BGNG TO CONVERGE TWDS THE RDPS'S TRACK,
ALTHO THEY ARE WKR WITH MSLP ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SYS THAN THE RDPS. SO
ALTHO IT IS MORE INTENSE THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE, THE RDPS LOOKS TO HAVE THE
RIGHT IDEA UP TO T24. AFTER THAT THE WEST SIDE OF THE SYS IS OVERDPND BY THE
RDPS.. THE NEW GDPS IS UP TO 7MB WKR THERE AS ARE THE FOREIGN MODELS AT T36.
ALSO BY T48, THE W PART OF THE CNTRL USA UPR TROF IS OVER-DEEPENED BY THE RDPS
RESULTING IN TOO COLD 850MB TEMPS OVR THE LWR GRTLKS BY T48.
IN CONSEQUENCE OF THE SLOWER NEWD PROGRESSION OF THE SYS, THE SFC WARM FNT IS A
BIT SLOWER, WHICH KEEPS FZRA OVR TORONTO AREA UNTIL 06Z SUN. THE NEW RDPS HAS
A SIMILAR IDEA FOR QPF AS THE PREV RUN, JUST SLOWER WITH THE PTN. THE FOREIGN
MODELS ARE GENLY SUPPORTIVE OF THE RDPS PCPN AMTS, WHICH LOOK ACCEPTABLE TO T36.
NRN BC AND YUKON...
NO SIG CHANGES IN THE NEW RUN OVR THIS AREA DAY 1. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS
STILL FOR LOWER MSLP OVR YT/NT DURG THE PD THAN THE RDPS FCSTS. THE RDPS LOOKS
CORRECTLY A BIT SLOWER/DPR WITH THE WV MOVG OVR THE AK PANHANDLE DAY 2 AND GVG
SNOW INLAND TO WRN NT/NRN AB. THE FOREIGN MODELS MOSTLY FAVOUR A DPR LEE TROF
THAN THE RDPS HAS, WITH SOMEWHAT HIER QPF E OF THE ROCKIES/MACKENZIE MTNS.
END/ALEXIUK/CREESE
 

[cyclone77]

Although the 00z Euro is not in, I'm feeling fairly good about bumping my call into the 12-15 inch range.  Really seems like the higher-res models have been leading the way in the past 24 hours or so and there is very good agreement between the SREF mean/NAM/RGEM/GGEM on precip amounts around here with even the drier models not too far behind. I'm not sold on ratios being that good given forecast soundings, somewhat marginal temps early on and upstream reports so thinking something around 10-12:1 at the beginning and trending toward 15:1 or a bit higher at the end.  There is a chance that it could be a top 5 snowstorm for Lafayette.

 

As mentioned before, the magnitude of the snow and the rapidity/magnitude of the temperature plunge make for a rare, nearly unprecedented event here in Lafayette...especially in modern times, with perhaps the best "analog" (not synoptically speaking but weather conditions-wise) for such a thing being the January 11-12, 1918 event, though it appears that one had higher winds and less snow here.  Very exciting stuff.   

 

Yep, looking like a top notch event to be sure.  Soak it all in, cause you never know how long you'll go until you see something like it again lol.  Looking like the perfect combination of high rate of snowfall juxtaposed with a relatively long duration event.  Then some strong winds on the backside for good measure. 

[Chicago WX]

Although the 00z Euro is not in, I'm feeling fairly good about bumping my call into the 12-15 inch range.  Really seems like the higher-res models have been leading the way in the past 24 hours or so and there is very good agreement between the SREF mean/NAM/RGEM/GGEM on precip amounts around here with even the drier models not too far behind. I'm not sold on ratios being that good given forecast soundings, somewhat marginal temps early on and upstream reports so thinking something around 10-12:1 at the beginning and trending toward 15:1 or a bit higher at the end.  There is a chance that it could be a top 5 snowstorm for Lafayette.

 

As mentioned before, the magnitude of the snow and the rapidity/magnitude of the temperature plunge make for a rare, nearly unprecedented event here in Lafayette...especially in modern times, with perhaps the best "analog" (not synoptically speaking but weather conditions-wise) for such a thing being the January 11-12, 1918 event, though it appears that one had higher winds and less snow here.  Very exciting stuff.   

 

Rock on.

[hm8]

no surprise but the NMM is juicier than the ARW

 

 

[GordoFabulous]

Although the 00z Euro is not in, I'm feeling fairly good about bumping my call into the 12-15 inch range.  Really seems like the higher-res models have been leading the way in the past 24 hours or so and there is very good agreement between the SREF mean/NAM/RGEM/GGEM on precip amounts around here with even the drier models not too far behind. I'm not sold on ratios being that good given forecast soundings, somewhat marginal temps early on and upstream reports so thinking something around 10-12:1 at the beginning and trending toward 15:1 or a bit higher at the end.  There is a chance that it could be a top 5 snowstorm for Lafayette.

 

As mentioned before, the magnitude of the snow and the rapidity/magnitude of the temperature plunge make for a rare, nearly unprecedented event here in Lafayette...especially in modern times, with perhaps the best "analog" (not synoptically speaking but weather conditions-wise) for such a thing being the January 11-12, 1918 event, though it appears that one had higher winds and less snow here.  Very exciting stuff.   

 

You're heading up.  I'm heading down.  I was thinking 10-12" in MIE earlier, but looking at the 0z models and the fact that we are 3C warmer than modeled right now, I think 6-8" is more likely.  Hopefully the precip rates will deal with the warm layer, but 850 warmth always seems to be undermodeled, and I don't put much faith in precip rates.

 

I've never experienced a 1'+ snowfall, and this looks like it may be another epic miss for Muncie.

[vortex]

1.1 " here now with moderate snow. 

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Although the 00z Euro is not in, I'm feeling fairly good about bumping my call into the 12-15 inch range.  Really seems like the higher-res models have been leading the way in the past 24 hours or so and there is very good agreement between the SREF mean/NAM/RGEM/GGEM on precip amounts around here with even the drier models not too far behind. I'm not sold on ratios being that good given forecast soundings, somewhat marginal temps early on and upstream reports so thinking something around 10-12:1 at the beginning and trending toward 15:1 or a bit higher at the end.  There is a chance that it could be a top 5 snowstorm for Lafayette.

 

As mentioned before, the magnitude of the snow and the rapidity/magnitude of the temperature plunge make for a rare, nearly unprecedented event here in Lafayette...especially in modern times, with perhaps the best "analog" (not synoptically speaking but weather conditions-wise) for such a thing being the January 11-12, 1918 event, though it appears that one had higher winds and less snow here.  Very exciting stuff.

Really interesting that you mention 1918 as another one of the winters JB kept mentioning was 1917-1918. Something to do with summer 1917 having so few hurricanes, similar to summer 2013.

[Gilbertfly]

3.0" at 11:00

[Gilbertfly]

Although the 00z Euro is not in, I'm feeling fairly good about bumping my call into the 12-15 inch range.  Really seems like the higher-res models have been leading the way in the past 24 hours or so and there is very good agreement between the SREF mean/NAM/RGEM/GGEM on precip amounts around here with even the drier models not too far behind. I'm not sold on ratios being that good given forecast soundings, somewhat marginal temps early on and upstream reports so thinking something around 10-12:1 at the beginning and trending toward 15:1 or a bit higher at the end.  There is a chance that it could be a top 5 snowstorm for Lafayette.

 

As mentioned before, the magnitude of the snow and the rapidity/magnitude of the temperature plunge make for a rare, nearly unprecedented event here in Lafayette...especially in modern times, with perhaps the best "analog" (not synoptically speaking but weather conditions-wise) for such a thing being the January 11-12, 1918 event, though it appears that one had higher winds and less snow here.  Very exciting stuff.  

 

very nice.....enjoy Hoosier!

[Gilbertfly]

LOT...

 

[WinterStorm294]

Looks about the same in Flint twp as well. I shoveled off my deck before the snow started and it's right about there.

Up to about 1.5" now. Looks like we're in the jackpot for this one! Biggest snow in years.