Chinook Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Pretty much game over for Columbus. Nothing is worse than going from single digit temps, to rain, to the mother of all cold air masses. Awful, just awful. But you guys have a winter storm watch for 4-8". Don't you believe the NWS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 I hope you're right. Wrong thread, I know, but do you still think YYZ can hit -15 F this week? It's a close one. I wouldn't be surprised if we get massively snubbed with QPF on this one. I do fear it will end up drier than what is modelled and we'll end up with 3-4" of snow. If this happens, not so sure. We really need the fresh snow to hit -15F. My guess is we will probably be close to the cold temps we just saw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 The stage seems set for a Battle of the Model Titans! The temperatures are everything like the Ice storm. Half a degree makes a big difference as to what precip you see. In this case, 850's remain cooler than the SFC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 The temperatures are everything like the Ice storm. Half a degree makes a big difference as to what precip you see. In this case, 850's remain cooler than the SFC. I just don't buy these warmer solutions right now. Look at the current obs right now. YYZ is at 28F with a dew point of 13F. The dew point has not risen very much. Once moisture comes in the dew point is going to rise much faster and the surface temps are going to take a hit, especially when it starts to snow at a good clip. So I'm personally going to completely count out rain or rain/snow mix, I think it's a ludicrous model output given how cold we've been and how cold we'll be following the passage of this low. Now, ratios could be an issue if we have a mild mid-layer. I'm hopeful we won't, but it's a tough call. I think there will be some surprises with this system. I think the one surprise a lot of us might see is that the low won't be as strong as modelled and I fear that the system has such a short time to tap into the Gulf for moisture that QPF totals may be really disappointing. That's my biggest fear right now as opposed to p-types. I'm not worried about p-types at all. I think that will be the other surprise: most people who are modelled to see rain will see snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 The key thing to me is that we've seen most models go northwest. Generally speaking the higher-res runs have gone the most northwest but the Euro and GFS have also bumped on the 12z cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EvansvilleAce Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 does the euro give any snow to southwest Indiana? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 here is the 17z RAP at 11z tomorrow. It's coming in quite a bit colder and the SLP is 50 miles South of earlier depictions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Up above freezing now..34 IMBY.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Euro excellent for S/E Michigan.. image? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIWeather Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 FWIW...TWC just updated their snow map.Brings 8-12" area back into IL...includes Chicago, Decatur, Champaign, and really really close to St. Louis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 -SN/PL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Winter Storm Ion throwing TWC a cureveball, eh? Wish I had a screenshot of their 0" for ORD last night.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 About 0.5" down so far here. Advisories spread into WI. ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY......WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO NOONCST TUESDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN HAS ISSUED AWINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PMCST SUNDAY. A WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PMSUNDAY TO NOON CST TUESDAY.* TIMING...SNOW WILL PERSIST TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...POSSIBLY TAPERING OFF LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE PICKING BACK UP LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WIND CHILLS WILL STEADILY DECLINE TO AROUND 20 BELOW LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MINIMUM WIND CHILL VALUES OF 40 TO 50 BELOW ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING.* SNOW ACCUMULATION...3 TO 5 INCHES THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY. HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE WI/IL BORDER IN KENOSHA COUNTY...LOWER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH.* WINDS...SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH...DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON AND SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH BY LATE AFTERNOON. THAT WIND SHIFT WILL MARK THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.* WIND CHILL IMPACTS...WILL CAUSE FROST BITE ON EXPOSED SKIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. HYPOTHERMIA OR DEATH ARE POSSIBLE IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIWeather Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Winter Storm Ion throwing TWC a cureveball, eh? Wish I had a screenshot of their 0" for ORD last night.. It is indeed...much like every storm seems to do for them lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Its still being generous for YYZ. Shows about 4-7", lol. Similar to the GFS. Maybe we can work some CAD? idk! The 12z euro text shows 6-8" of heavy wet snow for YYZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 12z NSSL WRF WRF-Rippage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Big fluffy dendrites dropping from the sky and starting to accumulate: http://ustre.am/16Txc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 I would be surprised if this gave Chicago 9"+ I'm sensing QPF issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 4, 2014 Author Share Posted January 4, 2014 -FZRA has turned to -SN now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 If we're going to throw around WRF's... here is the IWX-WRF: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 -FZRA has turned to -SN now. snow starting to pickup here. Dont see the heavy snow that Izzi was talking about do you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 I would be surprised if this gave Chicago 9"+ I'm sensing QPF issues I'll probably get close to that from fgen alone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 I would be surprised if this gave Chicago 9"+ I'm sensing QPF issues I wouldn't. Potential ORD measuring issues aside I think that number is certainly reachable for the city given the model trends and potential for some lake enhancement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Fingers crossed and nails biting. At least I got to explore a little bit of Toronto today. Shout out to the YYZ crowd...but I'd really REALLY like to get back to Chicago tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 snow starting to pickup here. Dont see the heavy snow that Izzi was talking about do you? fgen band is just getting going... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 4, 2014 Author Share Posted January 4, 2014 snow starting to pickup here. Dont see the heavy snow that Izzi was talking about do you? The first wave of precip already had decent snows to the NW. The next/better wave of precip is yet to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 I would be surprised if this gave Chicago 9"+ I'm sensing QPF issues They're going to get rocked and we're not. Bittercast here like I am: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41851-winter-1314-bantercomplaint-thread-part-1/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 I would be surprised if this gave Chicago 9"+ I'm sensing QPF issues Pwats over Chicago are like 200% of normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 17z RUC with thin stripe of .50"+ liquid from BRL-ORD/chi metro with the fronto snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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