January 6-8 2014 arctic attack obs thread...

[HKY_WX]

hickory get's down to 2 degrees wow.

[DopplerWx]

goodness.  coldest run yet.  wind chills tues morning.

[burgertime]

I think this would be primarily driven by strong mid-level frontogenesis like what happened this past November. However, this time the winds are more northwesterly vs northerly, so my concern is that down sloping will dry the column further east in GA and the Carolinas. The other side to that argument is that the temperature gradient is going to be ridiculous, so there almost has to be some secondary circulation development along the front. Would not surprise me to see a narrow band of decent snow immediately behind the front. And even if it's just a dusting that falls, it's going to be around for a few days!

 

Didn't this same thing happen around Jan. of 2010? We had a huge cold front come through which laid down around an inch of snow when flurries were just predicted IIRC. I only remember because I happened to be in Vegas and felt robbed. It was around Jan 12th or so for CES IRRC. 

[downeastnc]

goodness.  coldest run yet.  wind chills tues morning.

 

Now imagine that was the low temp map instead of wind chills and that would be almost exactly what it was for NC anyways back in Jan 1985

[metalicwx366]

The runs just keep getting colder. At 90 hours, - 10c 2m temp line is in S GA.

[superjames1992]

I'm going to miss this while i'm on vacation.  While I'd rather miss extreme cold than snow, it still kind of sucks to miss a historic event.  Oh, well.  I hope you all get the coldest weather in years!

 

The crazy thing is that it's going to be really windy, too, so wind chills should easily be below zero for a lot of us.

[Lookout]

WxUnderground is good for historical surface obs: http://classic.wunderground.com/history/airport/KATL/2014/1/3/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA

 

Iowa Mesonet has Nexrad Radar back to 1995: http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=usrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=70&interval=60&year=2010&month=2&day=4&hour=13&minute=35

 

NOAA Reanalysis Maps for sfc and upper air: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/composites/hour/

 

Plymouth Reanalysis Maps for sfc and upper air:

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/reanal-u.html

 

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/ua-r.html

 

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/u-make.html

 

 

1. Daily wx maps up to 2004:

 

http://www.lib.noaa.gov/collections/imgdocmaps/daily_weather_maps.html

 

 

2. Unisys back to 1/1996:

 

http://weather.unisys.com/archive/index.html

 

 

3. NOAA four maps on one reanalysis back to 1950:

 

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ncepreanal/

 

 

4. Every six hours of reanalysis back to 1948:

 

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/Composites/Hour/

 

 

5. Plymouth State upper air 1957-98:

 

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/ua-r.html

Much appreciated guys. . i had some of them but a couple i didn't.

[LithiaWx]

Hey!  A MariettaWx sighting!  Those have been few and far between lately.  Welcome back, sir!

 

Based on data from the meteostar site, I don't see much, if any, snow for the Hickory area.  The three-hour window from 12Z to 15Z on Monday has 0.05 inch of precipitation fall and sometime during that period the 850mb temp falls from +5 F to -6 F.  My guess is that the 850 temp drops after the precip has passed through.  At least, that's how it normally happens with downsloping in the lee side of the Apps.

 

Hey there!  The coldest I remember it gettign in Marietta is 1993, 1994, or 1995 when it was zero with a windchill of -28 one morngin before school in January.  Don't think it will be that cold but this is going to be a once in a 10-20 year event imo for us

[Wow]

Yes, coldest run yet by the GFS.  High of 23, low of 8 IMBY per the 18z run.

[Lookout]

I dunno, but it wouldn't surprise me to see things trend a bit colder as we work closer.

 

I think it will continue. Keep in mind there will be some snow on the ground upstream so there isn't going to be much modification of this airmass at all. As rare as it is to have this type of cold aloft, it makes it even more rare to see snow covering so much area just nw of us. So if anything the models should continue to trend colder.

 

 

 

Also of note is that at it's coldest, 875mb temps of -22c make it to atlanta and -24c over the NW corner of the state.

goodness.  coldest run yet.  wind chills tues morning.

 

-20F is some serious cold for any part of the country, much less here. Again though if we were still using the older wind chill index, we would be talking wind chills in the -30 to -40F range.

Hey there!  The coldest I remember it gettign in Marietta is 1993, 1994, or 1995 when it was zero with a windchill of -28 one morngin before school in January.  Don't think it will be that cold but this is going to be a once in a 10-20 year event imo for us

Keep in mind that was with the old wind chill index. The new one makes it roughly half as cold, so this will be more impressive than that day if these wind chills verify.

[Lookout]

I know we usually focus on the 850mb temps but the heart of the cold shifts down in height a bit with time monday evening into early tue. here are those 12z gfs 875mb temps. 12z  at the bottom vs 18z 875mb temps at the top valid for 0z tue. Note how far south the -20c temps are..all the way to columbus.

[Met1985]

So far the NWS has put up a low of negative 2 for us on Monday night. We keep trending colder and colder. Been a long while since I have seen a low lower than negative five here in the mountains.

[LithiaWx]

Yes, coldest run yet by the GFS.  High of 23, low of 8 IMBY per the 18z run.

 

Same here drops me down to 1 with a NW wind at 18mph (Windchill -18-22ish).  Temp bounces back to a 19 degree high.  That is impressive for the model to show that in three days out and it's been remarkably persistant with the extreme cold.

[dsaur]

A while back, i was looking through the ewall maps and I think at one point I wondered if that was it too. But those maps aren't exactly high resolution. The reason I want to find it is because I want to figure out the circumstances behind what caused it and if it could ever happen again.

 

Of course I'm no where near as good as you and others at past storms, in part because i lose patience trying to find info. Any good sites to look at whole atmosphere maps, surface observations, etc for a storm that long ago?

I was thinking around 96 or 98. 

All I know is that last one you got made me crazy jealous.  That snow band stayed over you all afternoon, and well after I'd gotten the quick inch which was all I got.  And there you are having it pile up from the "band that never moved, and poured snow", lol.  I thought it was great, after all the rain woes you'd had, but I'd had them to, and here you had your very own snow cloud   Winter weather life in Ga. is never fair.

  Everyone....see to your hot water pipes.. they freeze first and the worst.  Best spend the money on making your hot water heater work, than to lie on your back in ice/water under the house working on your pipes, when it's 15 degrees like I did three years ago.

[pcbjr]

I know we usually focus on the 850mb temps but the heart of the cold shifts down in height a bit with time monday evening into early tue. here are those 12z gfs 875mb temps. 12z  at the bottom vs 18z 875mb temps at the top valid for 0z tue. Note how far south the -20c temps are..all the way to columbus.

 

Couldn't get a PM trough, so I'll ask publicly -

Looks like the bottom map is colder towards Columbus; are they inverted (12z / 18z)?

[metalicwx366]

18z GFS has snow in the Florida Panhandle. Looks like a lot of folks on here will turn over to snow as the Arctic front passes.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014010318/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_21.png

[pcbjr]

18z GFS has snow in the Florida Panhandle. Looks like a lot of folks on here will turn over to snow as the Arctic front passes.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014010318/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_21.png

[NGA WINTER]

With wind chills in the -20 rang, schools in Georgia are gonna have to discuss the possibility of canceling school! It won't happen but might need to be discussed

[metalicwx366]

With wind chills in the -20 rang, schools in Georgia are gonna have to discuss the possibility of canceling school! It won't happen but might need to be discussed

I believe they shut things down here if the air temperature is 15 or lower.

[Isopycnic]

I believe they shut things down here if the air temperature is 35 or lower.

 

Yeah, hard to go swamp fishing at 35F

[BraseltonGAWX]

I believe they shut things down here if the air temperature is 15 or lower.

The buses are the major problem, along with heating the schools after a night like that. If Mon night lows are 0-5 above, then lots of buses won't start, school buildings will be very chili, and yes you can't expect kids to stand out at a bus stop with -15 wind chills.

I agree that school closings for Tuesday in metro Atlanta are looking more and more like a good probability at this point.

[mackerel_sky]

I believe they shut things down here if the air temperature is 15 or lower.

Make sure to cover your cacti or just let it drip

[Jaguars]

18z GFS has snow in the Florida Panhandle. Looks like a lot of folks on here will turn over to snow as the Arctic front passes.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014010318/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_21.png

 

I'm dreaming of a white Tuesday

[mackerel_sky]

The buses are the major problem, along with heating the schools after a night like that. If Mon night lows are 0-5 above, then lots of buses won't start, school buildings will be very chili, and yes you can't expect kids to stand out at a bus stop with -15 wind chills.

I agree that school closings for Tuesday in metro Atlanta are looking more and more like a good probability at this point.

I agree! They will probably atleast delay schools around here for 2 hrs, just to let it warm slightly, but it's a big hassle for parents

[Jaguars]

Was on Fernandina Beach today and was absolutely the coldest I've ever felt in Florida.  And I have woken up early on some chilly Gainesville, Fl mornings in the upper teens (late 90s)  But the wind howling off the water had to have wind chill temps in the mid 20s if not lower with the air temp about 44.  Next blast looking more and more exciting.

[nchighcountrywx]

From Dr Ryan Maue;

Synoptic bomb next week:

Synoptic goodies -- 5-day GIF of MSLP anomalies showing strongest overland cyclogenesis / bomb I can find

http://t.co/tgLH8lZNTI

[metalicwx366]

Yeah, hard to go swamp fishing at 35F

Have you ever been swamp fishing before? lol

If the windchill reaches the negatives, I am going.

[Isopycnic]

Have you ever been swamp fishing before? lol

If the windchill reaches the negatives, I am going.

yup.

[Mooner]

I agree! They will probably atleast delay schools around here for 2 hrs, just to let it warm slightly, but it's a big hassle for parents

 

 

That will be some slight warming indeed...Meteostar's GFS plot has KATL warming to a balmy 8º by 10am, up from the morning low of 3º. I truly fear whether civil authorities in north Georgia will effectively communicate the dangers of temps and wind chills at such a low extreme; it's been many years  since we've had to deal with such extreme cold in this area.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

With this up-coming cold outbreak, we should at least have a below normal January. That is unless we find a way to torch the last half of the month.