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NNE Winter 2013-14 Part 2

klw

By klw,
in New England

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Lava Rock

Lava Rock

Posted
Posted

recent memory? I don't remember a January like this in over 10yrs maybe longer.Your area had a fantastic ten day stretch of winter. Probably better than anyone on the board. These happen but do not a month make. Jan 12 was better? How about Jan 10?

I'd have to look at those years for details but just don't remember this many cutters in such a short span.
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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

It could be worse, all the snow lovers out in the Sierra Nevadas must be dying. Snow pack is only 20% of normal out there.

 

Looking out at 9300 Feet:

1526713_575539579188190_2053699316_n.png

 

I just posted a report from a local Mammoth Mountain snow report in the ski thread... they've seen 6" since December 8th at a place that lists an average of 400".  That's harsh.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Lol, the meltdowns are epic.

 

This has been an epic period of melt, I agree with that.  5 different rainstorms now since December 20th.

 

Remember a while back when I posted about a verbatim GFS run that showed 1-3 rainstorms coming up and you got me all riled up saying I was calling for 1-3 rainstorms?  lol, well I guess that actually happened and that estimate was low. 

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Lava Rock

Lava Rock

Posted
Posted

Lol, the meltdowns are epic.

 

This has been an epic period of melt, I agree with that.  5 different rainstorms now since December 20th.

 

Remember a while back when I posted about a verbatim GFS run that showed 1-3 rainstorms coming up and you got me all riled up saying I was calling for 1-3 rainstorms?  lol, well I guess that actually happened and that estimate was low. 

about 3 weeks ago I posted something to the effect that hopefully this wasn't going to be the best part of this winter. Never thought it would get this bad.
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J.Spin

J.Spin

Posted
Posted

Well it's hard for inhabited areas, yes that's true. Haha. I mean in Dec/Jan//Feb our prime snow months it's not *that* hard to do in the higher elevations of the Greens.

 

Sugarbush does it (heck they got 110" last December), Bolton does it, Smuggs does it, Jay does it. If we have a nice winter month, totals at the summit of these ski areas will be 72"+.

 

Hopefully J.Spin or ADK may add some thoughts.

 

Well, my data include some 6-hour collection intervals that are shorter than most ski areas are going to use, but Dec, Jan, and Feb all average ~40” here, and with the typical 2:1 snowfall ratio we see with respect to the mountains, it wouldn’t seem like 72” should be that difficult.  With our annual snowfall average at ~160” and the mountains almost exactly double that, it’s hard to see where the relationship breaks down.  Perhaps we beat that 2:1 ratio in the coldest months, and fall short on the fringes of the season when the valleys have more marginal temperatures.

 

In any case, if you run the stats on your December, January, and February numbers, you get a mean of 72.5”, and an S.D. of 19.0”.  The S.D. hardly matters though, because with your average so close to the 72” number in question, it says that half your midwinter months are going to have less than 72” of snow, and the other half are going to have more than 72” of snow.  You’ve got a 50% chance of 72” of snow or more; I’d call it pretty easy to get six feet in a month.  If this January ends up coming in very low on snowfall, we can use those numbers to see just how uncommon it was.

 

On the topic of this season, I’ll say that objectively, we’re still not allowed to complain too hard about this winter yet, certainly with respect to snowfall.  Once we hit greater than 1 S.D. below the mean, then it might be time to start.  However, we’re certainly not there yet at our location, and Northern Vermont has got to be one of the places in the region that is the most behind average on snowfall (perhaps the mountains are there now?).  If BTV was only 6” below average for snowfall according to eyewall’s last update, that can’t be anywhere near 1 S.D. below the mean.  Also, we’ve had continuous snowpack here since 11/24, and it’s been robust enough to hold up to round after round of rain.  For BTV, I wouldn’t be surprised if their number of days with snow cover is actually ahead of average, because I can’t recall the last time I’ve seen such a persistent snowpack there.  And, although we’ve fallen behind 2011-2012 on snowfall, we’re still well ahead of 2006-2007 (by almost 20 inches), so we’re not even in the basement with respect to the last several years.  I still don’t know where the upslope has been though, usually it’s here when the lake-effect snow is going, but this has been one weird weather pattern.  However, we’ve also had storms, which is what we always say we want.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

06-07 was much worse than this. And then February came, v-day, st pattys day and Easter. Epic.

By this point though I think conditions were getting better in 06-07. I remember the week before MLK was when that winter started showing up...then it went nuts after that starting with Valentines Day.

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ono

ono

Posted
Posted

this particular week (give or take) is the third year in a row with a real thaw/rain even.  It's a bit unusual with the number of continued cutters and freeze ups.  My memory generally serves the good years best- and this will be forgotten soon enough.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

this particular week (give or take) is the third year in a row with a real thaw/rain even.  It's a bit unusual with the number of continued cutters and freeze ups.  My memory generally serves the good years best- and this will be forgotten soon enough.

Please rescue the VT crew out of the river on your way upstream, TIA
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mreaves

mreaves

Posted
Posted

By this point though I think conditions were getting better in 06-07. I remember the week before MLK was when that winter started showing up...then it went nuts after that starting with Valentines Day.

06-07 did start to turn around about now. I forget the exact date but there was a LES streamer that jack potted this area with about 10". It was a really narrow band, 5 miles either side got 5" or 6". We then got a decent dump on MLK day that included sleet. This was great because it added body to the snow. The next couple of weeks were cold and dry until the floodgates opened on VDay. That is still my favorite storm. Over 30" here. My lab mix jumped off the deck stairs and went under the snow like she had just jumped into a pond and came up like she was swimming. That was probably the greatest comeback winter ever.
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Nittany88

Nittany88

Posted
Posted

Well, my data include some 6-hour collection intervals that are shorter than most ski areas are going to use, but Dec, Jan, and Feb all average ~40” here, and with the typical 2:1 snowfall ratio we see with respect to the mountains, it wouldn’t seem like 72” should be that difficult.  With our annual snowfall average at ~160” and the mountains almost exactly double that, it’s hard to see where the relationship breaks down.  Perhaps we beat that 2:1 ratio in the coldest months, and fall short on the fringes of the season when the valleys have more marginal temperatures.

 

In any case, if you run the stats on your December, January, and February numbers, you get a mean of 72.5”, and an S.D. of 19.0”.  The S.D. hardly matters though, because with your average so close to the 72” number in question, it says that half your midwinter months are going to have less than 72” of snow, and the other half are going to have more than 72” of snow.  You’ve got a 50% chance of 72” of snow or more; I’d call it pretty easy to get six feet in a month.  If this January ends up coming in very low on snowfall, we can use those numbers to see just how uncommon it was.

 

On the topic of this season, I’ll say that objectively, we’re still not allowed to complain too hard about this winter yet, certainly with respect to snowfall.  Once we hit greater than 1 S.D. below the mean, then it might be time to start.  However, we’re certainly not there yet at our location, and Northern Vermont has got to be one of the places in the region that is the most behind average on snowfall (perhaps the mountains are there now?).  If BTV was only 6” below average for snowfall according to eyewall’s last update, that can’t be anywhere near 1 S.D. below the mean.  Also, we’ve had continuous snowpack here since 11/24, and it’s been robust enough to hold up to round after round of rain.  For BTV, I wouldn’t be surprised if their number of days with snow cover is actually ahead of average, because I can’t recall the last time I’ve seen such a persistent snowpack there.  And, although we’ve fallen behind 2011-2012 on snowfall, we’re still well ahead of 2006-2007 (by almost 20 inches), so we’re not even in the basement with respect to the last several years.  I still don’t know where the upslope has been though, usually it’s here when the lake-effect snow is going, but this has been one weird weather pattern.  However, we’ve also had storms, which is what we always say we want.

 

It's really the ice destroying the quality of the snow pack that's the real problem though. You can't do anything on it. Plus the higher elevations are WAY behind normal. Mount Mansfield is at its 7th lowest snow pack on record for the date.

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J.Spin

J.Spin

Posted
Posted

Oh he says it's not so bad and he is the voice of reason, others say it and we had perpetual optimists.

 

Well remember, the harder you hit one of these controversial discussions with actual data and statistics, the firmer your footing, so that plays a part.  Just watch when Will works his magic in that way – it holds a lot of clout.

 

The point that the guys are making about the turnaround in 2006-2007 is also important though; that January was still a sub-par month with only ~30” of snow here, but much of that fell in the second half of the month, and one could feel that the momentum was building.  It was interesting to note that even that February was still a bit below average here at 38.8”, but with March and April above average at 40.2” and 22.0” respectively, and those repeated honkin’ synoptic storms on what seemed like every major holiday, the winter finished strong and everyone was jazzed.  It’s interesting to note that even after such a ridiculously slow start (less than 30” of snow by this point in the season), 2006-2007 managed to make its way to a very respectable and only slightly below average 153.4”.  And, that was done without any massive, blockbuster months here at our location - the 40.2” in March was the largest monthly total of any that season.  I have no idea what’s going to happen during the rest of this season, but that just shows what can happen without even throwing in a big 70” month or something like that.

 

One thing that might be interesting to look at, and could likely be an especially potent cause of the current depressed mood in the forum, would be January.  If we take this January in vacuo, I think we’ll see some big deviations in snowfall, snowpack, rain, especially now, but we can revisit the numbers at the end of the month and see where it sits.

 

Another issue could be the rather persistent “Leon”, “Belly to Belly”, and other positive talk that has/had been around the past few months.  It’s one thing when you’re told that the pattern is poor, and it performs poorly in your area, and then it’s another to be told that it’s going to be YFW (your favorite winter) reincarnated, or something like that… and it still performs poorly in your area.  Throw in a sprinkle of your area potentially performing the worst with respect to average in the region, and I could see how it would stress people out.

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adk

adk

Posted
Posted

By this point though I think conditions were getting better in 06-07. I remember the week before MLK was when that winter started showing up...then it went nuts after that starting with Valentines Day.

 

06-07 was warm to this point. Devoid of snow but at least nice.  This winter has been very cold and icy and devoid of snow.  I'll take 06-07 if I had to pick. 

 

regardless...it is what it is.  Bring on the phantom GFS storms!

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Hitman

Hitman

Posted
Posted

I would be curious to compare the trail counts from this year and 06-07. My recollection is that it was so warm there was trouble making snow.

IMHO-what stings right now, is that we were so close to full on winter before Xmas. Heck, we were talking about when to go into the woods. Then we got the rug pulled out from under us.

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted

recent memory? I don't remember a January like this in over 10yrs maybe longer.

 

Try 18 yr.  On Jan 13, 1996 I had 28" snowpack at my place in Gardiner.  Over the next two weeks, three 1"+ RA events dumped 4.4" total and reduced the snow to 5" of whitish muck.  (Of course, Feb-Mar-Apr had a bit of snow that year.)

 

Finished with 0.87", but it only took down my glacial snowpack one inch, to 14".

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