PWMan Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Up here, I think we will start out as a mix of snow/sleet and some rain showers before the front blast thru here monday afternoon Then we get a few cold/dry days before the real torch commences toward mid-month, it would appear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Awful just awful for BTV (and we are already have already been left out of the big ticket snows this year so far) HIS WESTERN TRACK NOW FAVORED BY ALL MODELS...AND SEEMSREASONABLE GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE LARGE UPPER LOW/TROUGH ALONGWITH INDICATIONS THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WILL TAKE ON A NEGATIVETILT FOR A TIME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. GIVEN THEPROJECTED LOW TRACK AND DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREASUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...LOOK FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE TO BEAN ISSUE WITH THIS STORM. TEMP PROFILES SUGGEST A PROLONGED PERIODOF MIXED PRECIPITATION...TRANSITIONING IN MOST OF THE AREA FROMSNOW/SLEET TO RAIN...WITH A PERIOD FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE. AS LOWLIFTS OUT TO OUR NORTH-NORTHEAST DURING MONDAY...PRECIPITATIONCHANGES BACK TO SNOW BEFORE TAPERING TO SNOW SHOWERS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 How much rain is prog with this next storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 any hints at a flash freeze late Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 How much rain is prog with this next storm? Depending on which model you want to hug, Its looks anywhere from .50-1.25" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Looks like a flash freeze candidate , perhaps dead ringer Wonder if dentrite gets above 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Looks like a flash freeze candidate , perhaps dead ringer Wonder if dentrite gets above 40 Highs in GC are progged to stay in the 30's (actually 41 on my p/c), so I'm guessing no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Looks like a 12 hr mild up for my area on gfs 2m temps like 9z to 21z is 40-46/47 w temps low -mid 30's on either side of that. Doesnt look that bad , areas that had snow cover in essex county prior will def keep it, and i think many other areas keep some of there's, this sand consistency snow should get to be 1-2 of glacier i think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Good for the northern ski areas on the back end: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Snowpack isn't getting wiped out at all in this one...unless maybe you were an area that got like 4"...and even then that might not go. This isn't a 24 hour period of 50/50 snow eating weather....there's some CAD on the front end, and then maybe like 6 hours (at most) of 45-50F temps and the cold front swings through...very sharply I might add. Flash freeze isn't out of the question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Snowpack isn't getting wiped out at all in this one...unless maybe you were an area that got like 4"...and even then that might not go. This isn't a 24 hour period of 50/50 snow eating weather....there's some CAD on the front end, and then maybe like 6 hours (at most) of 45-50F temps and the cold front swings through...very sharply I might add. Flash freeze isn't out of the question Think there's any chance of the "this never works out" couple inches on the back end? 4.1/-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Think there's any chance of the "this never works out" couple inches on the back end? 4.1/-3 A couple inches? I doubt it. Some guidance is trying to flip us over to snow right as it ends, but nothing more than a coating and maybe flash freeze...and even then, not all guidance shows this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I'll be honest. This one is going to hurt for a lot of people including myself. A rain event sandwhiched in between two incredibly cold shots if air, that's a real bummer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Some of the interior may start as a period of ZR Sunday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 This is going to wipe out the entire snowpack on the south shore. I may survive with a bit but not looking good especially over PYM county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 And I always say this, but the North Shore will torch worse than metro BOS with a SE flow, but they have more snow on the ground, so the point is moot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 And I always say this, but the North Shore will torch worse than metro BOS with a SE flow, but they have more snow on the ground, so the point is moot. You always think that..LOL. SE winds furnace everyone on this setup not in the interior. There may be some CAD though just inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 A couple inches? I doubt it. Some guidance is trying to flip us over to snow right as it ends, but nothing more than a coating and maybe flash freeze...and even then, not all guidance shows this. And that's why I said "it never happens". But, hope always springs eternal. End result will be s special weather statement warning of black ice. Big whoop. Some of the interior may start as a period of ZR Sunday evening. BOX has been hitting a mix pretty hard in the forecast out here once this event got into range (actually, they had started as all snow a few days ago). I'll keep hoping for cooler rain out here, though i guess I'll be getting more of it further west so likely a wash. No pun intended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 And I always say this, but the North Shore will torch worse than metro BOS with a SE flow, but they have more snow on the ground, so the point is moot. Meh maybe salem, Lynn and Marblehead but i dont know that they will be any warmer than bos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 This is going to wipe out the entire snowpack on the south shore. I may survive with a bit but not looking good especially over PYM county ?? Not likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 The cutter will be quickly forgotten Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 This is six hours max in the low 40's here as per the 12z GFS. If anything it dams in more and that's even briefer. About .5" falls as liquid, but the GFS actually shows that starting as ice so probably a good chunk of that is FZRA. Then it spits out .17"...apparently post frontal snow or lake involvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 You always think that..LOL. SE winds furnace everyone on this setup not in the interior. There may be some CAD though just inland. After living here for years, the southern suburbs of BOS hold out on the furnace for the longest time on a SE wind given similar mid levels (Versus downtown BOS, Cambridge, and even the eastern half of Essex Cnty). Even areas up on 95 in Essex county torch faster than here on a SE wind. I'm not saying I won't torch, it just takes longer here. I'm 20-25 miles from the ocean on a SE trajectory. Watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Meh maybe salem, Lynn and Marblehead but i dont know that they will be any warmer than bos. Pay attention to the mesos. You would be surprised how the cold hangs on a bit longer in areas like Milton Braintree and even Quincy versus even BOS and especially north/NE of there with a SE component to the wind. It's an interesting little feature of this area, usually doesn't mean much, but can sometimes slightly help a bit in snow retention versus the N shore and further down the south shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2014 Author Share Posted January 3, 2014 I'll be honest. This one is going to hurt for a lot of people including myself. A rain event sandwhiched in between two incredibly cold shots if air, that's a real bummer What ? what are you talking about -- we just had a solid snow storm last night; aren't you forgetting something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Pay attention to the mesos. You would be surprised how the cold hangs on a bit longer in areas like Milton Braintree and even Quincy versus even BOS and especially north/NE of there with a SE component to the wind. It's an interesting little feature of this area, usually doesn't mean much, but can sometimes slightly help a bit in snow retention versus the N shore and further down the south shore. Def not shocked if Milton/ Braintree are cooler than Lynn in se flow. East of me by a cpl miles route 1 seems to be a cut off for a few r/s events up this way ...with e flow and also with early warming on se flow. Also Water temps are pretty chilly now. So that makes the marine temp impact a bit less i would think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 The cutter will be quickly forgotten So will the snowcover in alot of places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Def not shocked if Milton/ Braintree are cooler than Lynn in se flow. East of me by a cpl miles route 1 seems to be a cut off for a few r/s events up this way ...with e flow and also with early warming on se flow. Also Water temps are pretty chilly now. So that makes the marine temp impact a bit less i would think That's true. Plus they got a bit more snow (I think) on the N shore. So the end result is moot. But the CP in essex county usually up to at least Topsfield gets flooded with marine air before I do in this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Fascinated by this one. Just a bomb out in the Midwest. Blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 What ? what are you talking about -- we just had a solid snow storm last night; aren't you forgetting something. I know lol..... I was referencing the cold but obviously the snow also. Actually, it's pretty remarkable from a science standpoint. Ice cold to rain to ice cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.