tarheelwx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 We really just need the low to speed up a bit and the hp slow down (blocking). Time for trending, but we know how that usually goes. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Yea, it has subfreezing temperature’s driving all the way to the AL/GA border at 1pm Saturday while precip is falling over the area. Yep, 28-30 F gets all the way back to ATL and AHN for the first 0.50" or so of the rain on 2/8 before it warms into the 30's and above for the heaviest part of the event on 2/9. What is sig. is that this is the first run in a while getting any of the ZR down to ATL-AHN. Let's see if that is the start of a new trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 That's a classic CAD set up on the 18z GFS..... Just nasty for a lot of folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterhawk Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 His tweets today from this morning have backed off and he says wintry for TN,KY, VA and points north. Someone has posted them in banter , I believe If you read the context of what he's saying; it wasn't the whole month it was the potential short term events this weekend early-mid next week. The possibilities are still there; nothing was said specifically about doom and gloom unlike some on here are posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Yep, 28-30 F gets all the way back to ATL and AHN for the first 0.50" or so of the rain on 2/8 before it warms into the 30's and above for the heaviest part of the event on 2/9. What is sig. is that this is the first run in a while getting any of the ZR down to ATL-AHN. Let's see if that is the start of a new trend. For the record, MeteoStar isn't as bullish for N GA as my provider's 18Z gfs 2 meter map it has the coldest for ATL at 34-35. Also, for GVL and AHN, it has only a small amount of ZR before warming above 32 for the bulk of it. CAE is similar. GSP/HKY have a good bit more ZR although even there it warms above 32 for a decent part of it per the 18Z GFS. Regardless, this is the coldest run for many CAD areas of the last four runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 From what I gathered from Robert's free stuff and others' comments, he was pretty much all in on substantial winter weather for the southeast in February. Nobody expected winter precip for all events, but it sure sounded like most everyone in the southeast, especially northern sections still had the bulk of winter in front of them. Again, this was just what I gathered on my own and NOT from Robert's paid site. As for the 18z and next weekend, I do not see a "classic" CAD setup. To me, classic cad has a locked in hp and wintery precip, at least this time of year, would continue throughout the event for the best CAD locations. The setup as depicted on the 18z GFS does not show this. I really hope things change and we get a big "somethng", anything but rain. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 For the record, MeteoStar isn't as bullish for N GA as my provider's 18Z gfs 2 meter map it has the coldest for ATL at 34-35. Also, for GVL and AHN, it has only a small amount of ZR before warming above 32 for the bulk of it. CAE is similar. GSP/HKY have a good bit more ZR although even there it warms above 32 for a decent part of it per the 18Z GFS. Regardless, this is the coldest run for many CAD areas of the last four runs. Hopefully the trend will continue. Might want to see the lp not so wound up as well. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 For the record, MeteoStar isn't as bullish for N GA as my provider's 18Z gfs 2 meter map it has the coldest for ATL at 34-35. Also, for GVL and AHN, it has only a small amount of ZR before warming above 32 for the bulk of it. CAE is similar. GSP/HKY have a good bit more ZR although even there it warms above 32 for a decent part of it per the 18Z GFS. Regardless, this is the coldest run for many CAD areas of the last four runs. Yessir. The accuweather pro site had Atlanta never getting below freezing. U basically described what I extrapolated from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 The GFS and it's ensembles show a low tracking from Colorado to the Great Lakes. My confidence in all non-rain p-type precip is like 5% now for Charlotte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Forecast sounding off the 18Z GFS does show a below zero layer near the surface in the ATL metro Saturday AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I should have learned this from last year, considering how the southeast had similar problems, but without an active southern stream plus blocking, its just too hard to get a real se storm. The last two years have really made that evident. Simply not going to look for anything substantial, over a couple inches until we have those two items in place. The northern stream just doesnt cut it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Sorry but who is "our"? Is this the NWS, Rays weather center, you and some buddies? Just curious, Thanks. We look at a weighted blend of the ensemble mean contours and adjust the weighting between the models based on a scoring matrix that gives preference to which specific model has a better handle on the pattern at any given point in time. Overall synoptics are taken into consideration along with local climateology for the current relative time of the meteorological season. When an event is imminent or in progress, the judgement of NWS GSP and RNK is highly valued and respected as they have superb skills in local guidance on winter events in Western North Carolina. You better have a sound reason to go against their guidance. And yes, general paid source guidance from other pros such as WxSouth, Wright Weather, Weatherbell, and Accuweather is also considered in formulating an action plan. Non paid sources such as WxBrad, Time Warner Cable Mets, Rays Weather and RaleighWx among others are also taken into consideration. A conservative approach is maintained and wish-casting is not a part of the process. You have to call it as it is as accurately as you can. Drumming up banter on hopes for this solution or that solution only because it could give us snow is not a part of an accurate forecast and responsible business plan. When business decisions have to be made that impact the reliability of customer service and have a direct impact on the bottom line, it pays to do your homework. And now back to regularly scheduled programming ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Can't you have a split flow without blocking? If so, couldn't you get a pretty good storm by getting southern stream energy to go along with a northern jet? TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 This dude is serious...lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 This dude is serious...lolz You mean "these people are"...unless he's (I mean they) using the Queen's English. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparkync Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 This dude is serious...lolz I say its getting pretty deep... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Can't you have a split flow without blocking? If so, couldn't you get a pretty good storm by getting southern stream energy to go along with a northern jet? TW You don't have to have blocking for a split flow, but to have an active southern jet and not having the highs stay in place( due to blocking) the highs that need to stay in a good location, slide out to sea as precip comes in. No blocking = thread the needle with a minuscule eye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 We look at a weighted blend of the ensemble mean contours and adjust the weighting between the models based on a scoring matrix that gives preference to which specific model has a better handle on the pattern at any given point in time. When an event is imminent or in progress, the judgement of NWS GSP and RNK is highly valued and respected as they have superb skills in locals guidance on winter events in Western North Carolina. You better have a sound reason to go against their guidance. And yes, general paid source guidance from other pros such as WxSouth, Wright Weather, Weatherbell, and Accuweather is also considered in formulating an action plan. Non paid sources such as WxBrad, Time Warner Cable Mets, Rays Weather and RaleighWx among others are also taken into consideration. A conservative approach is maintained and Wish-casting is not a part of the process. You have to call it as it accurately as it is. Drumming up banter on hopes for this solution or that solution only because it could give us snow is not a part of an accurate forecast and responsible business plan. When business decisions have to be made that impact the reliability of customer service and have a direct impact on the bottom line, it pays to do your homework. This is confusing. Are you an organization? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 This is confusing. Are you an organization? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 ^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 This is confusing. Are you an organization? Borg. You knew it would happen here. It was only a matter of time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Borg. You knew it would happen here. It was only a matter of time... Resistance is futile. I wish we had a Borg emiticon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Borg. You knew it would happen here. It was only a matter of time... I was thinking the same thing! LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 0z gfs is looking a little more interesting tonight for 2/8. The 1040 high sliding east but there is another 1036 high that has come into the west helping the storm stay a little more suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 @189 it's trying to cut up around Memphis but a lot better look tonight. Edit: @ 192 it's looking like a nasty ice storm for cad areas of NC/SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Just comparing the 12z GFS run from earlier today at hour 192 to the 0z GFS at hour 180, just a little difference... Top pic 12z from earlier today to the 0z just now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 @189 it's trying to cut up around Memphis but a lot better look tonight. Edit: @ 192 it's looking like a nasty ice storm for cad areas of NC/SC Look at the snow pack that HP has to work with, anything close to what the 0z GFS comes out it will be a big ice storm for someone. Although I still expect things to look different tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 In this setup, we want less phasing and allow the southern trough to move in while keeping the HP intact. If it gets too amped up it's going to cut like it's shown in recent runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 In this setup, we want less phasing and allow the southern trough to move in while keeping the HP intact. If it gets too amped up it's going to cut like it's shown in recent runs. That is kind of what is happening the next couple of days and how the MA is getting there 3-5" snow event on Monday. Below is h5 map for 24 hours and you can see the NS outracing the SS and at hour 48 the southern piece is left behind which tracks right through NC and give them a nice event, we obviously want it south with that strong HP being modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 The 0Z GFS appears to leave the bulk of N GA a little above 32 for this entire CAD event fwiw. The 32 does make it to upstate SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.