Hoosier Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Ice Storm Warning for Harry ..... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 330 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2013 MIZ066-067-073-074-211630- /O.UPG.KGRR.WS.A.0005.131221T1800Z-131222T1800Z/ /O.NEW.KGRR.IS.W.0001.131221T1800Z-131222T1200Z/ EATON-INGHAM-CALHOUN-JACKSON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLOTTE...LANSING...BATTLE CREEK... JACKSON 330 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2013 ...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND RAPIDS HAS ISSUED AN ICE STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * RAIN AND/OR FREEZING RAIN WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP TOWARD THIS AFTERNOON...AND CHANGE OVER TO ALL FREEZING RAIN BY EVENING AS TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING. * FREEZING RAIN WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. * ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND HALF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Ice Storm Warning for Harry ..... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 330 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2013 MIZ066-067-073-074-211630- /O.UPG.KGRR.WS.A.0005.131221T1800Z-131222T1800Z/ /O.NEW.KGRR.IS.W.0001.131221T1800Z-131222T1200Z/ EATON-INGHAM-CALHOUN-JACKSON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLOTTE...LANSING...BATTLE CREEK... JACKSON 330 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2013 ...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND RAPIDS HAS ISSUED AN ICE STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * RAIN AND/OR FREEZING RAIN WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP TOWARD THIS AFTERNOON...AND CHANGE OVER TO ALL FREEZING RAIN BY EVENING AS TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING. * FREEZING RAIN WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. * ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND HALF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING. Yep.. Better then the insane amounts of ice the models had showed.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Interesting that LOT and ILX are buying the nam shift of the deformation band late sat into sun when a few major models showed a SE shift with it. very eager to see 12z runs now since this will be the first run with a full sampling of the system. see if SE trend holds or if it goes back NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 skilling making bold calls for snow amounts in WI and N MI....12-14" APX is soooo not on board with that. Does match John Dee and if it verifies, Justin streaks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Thank I'll be juuusssstttt South of any significant ice accretion here in West Bloomfield..... Models have generally converged on the freezing line running across Oakland County diagonally SW to NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 skilling making bold calls for snow amounts in WI and N MI....12-14" APX is soooo not on board with that. Does match John Dee and if it verifies, Justin streaks Skilling agreeing makes me nervous but he's a snow weenie at heart... I think most of us in the weather business love snowstorms...they are so dynamic, tricky, require lots of analyzing, and makes us put on our thinking caps. Its also, I believe, why a lot of forecasters have grey hair...or they eventually do anyway. I've been fascinated with snowstorms since I was a child, just the pure science. I started talking with my local OCM at the local ABC affiliate when I was about 9 or 10 years old I think. Weather was always a love of mine as early as I can remember. I guess I'm one of the few people that can say I love my job...for the most part. Extreme weather be it severe, snow, hurricanes, and what not are what make this fun and interesting...plus you always learn something from each system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Thank I'll be juuusssstttt South of any significant ice accretion here in West Bloomfield..... Models have generally converged on the freezing line running across Oakland County diagonally SW to NE Rap early look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Skilling agreeing makes me nervous but he's a snow weenie at heart... I think most of us in the weather business love snowstorms...they are so dynamic, tricky, require lots of analyzing, and makes us put on our thinking caps. Its also, I believe, why a lot of forecasters have grey hair...or they eventually do anyway. I've been fascinated with snowstorms since I was a child, just the pure science. I started talking with my local OCM at the local ABC affiliate when I was about 9 or 10 years old I think. Weather was always a love of mine as early as I can remember. I guess I'm one of the few people that can say I love my job...for the most part. Extreme weather be it severe, snow, hurricanes, and what not are what make this fun and interesting...plus you always learn something from each system. skilling and dee are both snow weenies but respected too. APX is very conservative and rightly so. can't go sounding the alarm over everything.... will wait and see my passion is snow, it's why I moved where I did and one of the few things I lose sleep over, forget to eat, and sometimes bathe too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 think when the afd comes out for DVN they are going to by and large ride the NAM train...hmmm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 think when the afd comes out for DVN they are going to by and large ride the NAM train...hmmm.... too funny. I was thinking the same thing. hell most models haven't captured that the ULL is further south than what they depicted. it is still digging and moving east. hasn't made the NE turn yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 And for folks who have been around for a while, 12/24/02. It's easy to give the models a pass in borderline situations (getting more mixing than expected when you're supposed to be just north of the rain/snow line, etc) but last minute 100-200 mile bodily shifts, not so much. I just woke up and am catching up. I did notice that NWS sped up the arrival of the heaviest rain axis by about 6 hours for this area, from now until 1 AM vs. what they had been predicting for a couple of days of 1 PM - 7 AM. Hmmm.... EDIT: I just noticed that there of lots of hmmm... going on in this thread this morning. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Pretty good idea of what's happening in a majority of the subforum right now from the intellicast weenie radar: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL434 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2013.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)ISSUED AT 405 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2013ASSESSING THE 00Z RUN SOLUTIONS IN HANDLING PHASING ISSUES ANDNORTHEASTWARD PROPAGATION PATH OF STORM CURRENTLY ACRS NORTHCENTRAL MEX INTO FAR WEST TX...HAVE THROWN OUT THE 00Z NAM WHICHTOOK A FURTHER WEST JOG WITH FORCING AND HEAVY SNOW BAND. HAVESIDED WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF WHICH IS NOT ALL THATFAR OFF OF PREVIOUS FCST PACKAGE THINKING. THIS ACCEPTED BLENDTAKES THE SFC LOW UP TOWARD THE MO BOOT-HEEL BY AROUND 00ZSUN...AND THEN ACCELERATE TOWARD NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEASTERNINDIANA BY 12Z SUNDAY MORNING. OVERRUNNING PRECIP FIELDS DEVELOPEDBY STRONG WARM MOIST CONVEYOR ALREADY STREAMING ACRS MUCH OF MO ANDGROWING CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN CWA. SHORT RANGE HIRESMODELING...EXTRAPOLATING THE CURRENT MOVEMENT OF PRECIP IN EASTERNKS/NW MO...AND WITH SFC TEMPS BELOW FREEZING AND BUILDING WARMWEDGE ALOFT THIS MORNING...IT APPEARS SOME FREEZING RAIN WILLIMPACT THE SOUTHERN CWA AND POSSIBLY THE I-80 CORRIDOR EAST OF THEQUAD CITIES BY MID MORNING. STRENGTHENING LLVL NORTHWEST TO NORTHFLOW INTO THIS ADVANCING PRECIP FIELD WILL MAKE FOR A SHARPNORTHERN CUT-OFF...BUT STILL FEEL THESE AREAS TO GET AT LEAST SOMELIGHT ICING THIS MORNING AND WILL BUMP UP THE START TIME OF THESOUTHEASTERN SECTION OF THE WSW TO 15Z/9AM CST THIS MORNING. SFCTEMPS TO BE FLIRTING WITH FREEZING BY THIS AFTERNOON...BUTEARLIER START TO THE PRECIP MAY ALLOW FOR MORE ICE ACCUMULATIONPOSSIBLY PUSHING A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRALIL BY EARLY EVENING. LIKE PREVIOUS SHIFT MENTIONED AND FCSTSOUNDINGS SUPPORT...THIS SYSTEM ALSO TO BE AN EFFECTIVE SLEETMAKER IN THESE EARLIER START AREAS WITH SLEET ACCUMS OF A HALF UPTO 1 INCH POSSIBLE. WILL BANK ON A SHARP CUT-OFF OF NORTHERN EDGEOF PRECIP BY THE NORTH LLVL FLOW TO KEEP THE NEED OF AREAS FROMFAIRFIELD IA...TO THE QUAD CITIES FROM FROM HAVING TO BE BUMPED UPBEFORE THE 6 PM WARNING START TIME...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE.DYNAMICAL COOLING FOR SWITCH OVER TO ALL SNOW TONIGHT FROM NW-TO-SOUTHEAST AS THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES. H5 MB LOWSHIFTS RIGHT ACRS THE CWA FROM SOUTHWEST- TO- NORTHEAST LATETONIGHT TRYING TO CLOSE- OFF BUT MODELS SUGGEST IT STAYS OPEN. BUTFEATURE STILL STRONG ENOUGH ALONG WITH UPPER JET DYNAMICS ANDUNSEASONABLE MOISTURE FEED/TROWAL SIGNATURE TO FUEL A HEAVY DEFZONE SNOW BAND WITH SIGNS OF MAIN ACCUM AXIS SIMILAR TO WHAT THEPREVIOUS PACKAGE ADVERTISED...5-8 INCHES BY 12Z SUNDAY 20-30 MILESEITHER SIDE OF AN AXIS FROM SIGOURNEY IA...IOWA CITY...TO WEST OFCLINTON IA AND SOUTHEAST OF DBQ. SHARP DROP OFF IN SNOW AMOUNTSEAST OF THE MS RVR AND SOUTH OF STERLING IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Probably a 0.1-0.3" glaze already, some of which should melt today. The "fun" starts tonight after 6-8pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 I just knew this would be a nailbiter right down to nowcasting. A very intense and tricky system indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 I think it might end up being all rain for DTW, just north of here though the ice will occur, it will be a very close call for the airport and the city specifically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 As I believe michsnowfreak describes it, the day Detroit picked up 4-6" of Partly Sunny. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2011/us0205.php (note the date the thread was started) http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/12575-feb-4th-5th-snow-event/ What a storm, what a february, what a winter! Was fully expecting a rare sunny day to enjoy our solid foot snowpack and instead got a blinding midday snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 I think it might end up being all rain for DTW, just north of here though the ice will occur, it will be a very close call for the airport and the city specifically.Wondering if it ices whatever snow is left and select elevated surfaces but just wets pavement? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Toronto folks...how much snowpack left? This could ice it over for the entire winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Wondering if it ices whatever snow is left and select elevated surfaces but just wets pavement? Probably not likely, unless we get below 32, 32 itself just isn't going to cut it. Currently we are at 35 and should remain mostly steady throughout the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Probably a 0.1-0.3" glaze already, some of which should melt today. The "fun" starts tonight after 6-8pm. You might want to take a look at this along with the rest of the people who reside in Toronto: That's what I got when I refreshed TO's page on The Weather Network 50 minutes ago. 50 mm of freezing rain (high end) on top of the already likely 0.5 cm would be insane!! Even if half this occurs, this will be a disaster! Something tells me this is going to be the second worst ice storm in Canadian history... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 You might want to take a look at this along with the rest of the people who reside in Toronto: That's what I got when I refreshed TO's page on The Weather Network 50 minutes ago. 50 mm of freezing rain (high end) on top of the already likely 0.5 cm would be insane!! Even if half this occurs, this will be a disaster! Something tells me this is going to be the second worst ice storm in Canadian history... I'd probably guess that the total ice accumulation for Toronto will be around 30mm probably a bit more as you go further inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 LAF is sitting at 32 and rain currently hovering around 33 at my place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 35 lakeside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 recent hi-res run with only about .10" QPF. My 1.20" QPF call is going to be awful. Make terrible calls every day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 recent hi-res run with only about .10" QPF. My 1.20" QPF call is going to be awful. Make terrible calls every day. lol Chicago/NE IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 lol Chicago/NE IL. hrw-nmm_wus_048_precip_p48.gif avatar worthy fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 avatar worthy fail Stupid storm. 32º and RA at LAF at 8:00 AM...up to 0.28" on the day...2" or bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 30 and foggy here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Stupid storm. 32º and RA at LAF at 8:00 AM...up to 0.28" on the day...2" or bust. It's going to a be a top 3 least favorite for me. This whole storm is going to amount to some fog and drizzle...laughably bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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