ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Euro ensembles probably with their coldest run yet in the LR. You can't really get a better looking Pacific for cold than what the Euro ens shows. Still no sign of a -NAO though, so we'll be relying on the big ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Euro ensembles probably with their coldest run yet in the LR. You can't really get a better looking Pacific for cold than what the Euro ens shows. Still no sign of a -NAO though, so we'll be relying on the big ocean. Does the PV make a re-appearance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Does the PV make a re-appearance? Yeah it plants itself right over Hudson Bay..and slightly eastward. It would suggest that we would see another major arctic outbreak into the CONUS most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 That's one hell of an arctic airmass signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 That's one hell of an arctic airmass signal.up and over, damn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 The GEFS D11 analogs have gotten quite cold...there are some big snow analogs in there as well. I actually think the EC ensembles look a bit better than the GEFS...but here is what those GEFS analogs produced in terms of temperature anomalies: You can see the definite +PNA pattern. Very classic...almost an El Nino +PNA pattern...which isn't a shock since Jan 2003 appears twice in there along with late Jan 2007 and early Feb 1995. All moderate or better El Ninos. The top analog was January 2009 which also produced a very cold eastern US...it was a bit colder in the lakes and N plains than the El Nino analogs...which is what I'd lean towards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 The GEFS D11 analogs have gotten quite cold...there are some big snow analogs in there as well. I actually think the EC ensembles look a bit better than the GEFS...but here is what those GEFS analogs produced in terms of temperature anomalies: You can see the definite +PNA pattern. Very classic...almost an El Nino +PNA pattern...which isn't a shock since Jan 2003 appears twice in there along with late Jan 2007 and early Feb 1995. All moderate or better El Ninos. The top analog was January 2009 which also produced a very cold eastern US...it was a bit colder in the lakes and N plains than the El Nino analogs...which is what I'd lean towards. Can't ask for much more than that look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Looking at that map I have to wonder...what comes after D11-14 if Canada is torching west of Hudsons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Looking at that map I have to wonder...what comes after D11-14 if Canada is torching west of Hudsons. It doesn't get warmer because the ridge slowly retrogrades out west and the flow is from like 330-340 degrees in the upper levels over central Canada. If we changed to a zonal flow, that map would spell disaster in the longer range, but that is not this case this time. The warm anomalies actually get pinched westward and southwestward as time passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 It doesn't get warmer because the ridge slowly retrogrades out west and the flow is from like 330-340 degrees in the upper levels over central Canada. If we changed to a zonal flow, that map would spell disaster in the longer range, but that is not this case this time. The warm anomalies actually get pinched westward and southwestward as time passes. Yep forgot you mentioning that previously. Retrograding ridge FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Yeah it seems that NOT having Atlantic blocking actually helps to allow warm air to make a run at us and therefore advect and give us some nice over runny nose events. Also these blocks can really kill us like Feb 2010 by causing OTS coastals. There are certain people who would rather have the coastals to track....but as a snowpack snob im loving this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 I'll take a few nickel and dime events with some cold, might be boring but it's winter to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Ridge Bridge on the 12z GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 GEFS look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Yep forgot you mentioning that previously. Retrograding ridge FTW. Well retrograding is only good until it is no longer good lol. Solid runs today and a clear trend colder by larter next week even...The -ao ridge bridge is a look that is tough to see breaking down so easily in time for an early feb warm up of sorts..we will see I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 GEFS look good. Agreed. That's a nice look. The Atlantic, however, seems to be pretty stubborn. I think we run the risk of a cutter around D10 before we plunge back into the Arctic. This could be a really brutal 10 days for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Euro ensembles are pretty sweet. They have a really strong signal for a storm around 1/22-23. Arctic airmasses a threat at any point beyond the 20th...though there could be a mini-one for MLK weekend behind the 1/18 threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Agreed. That's a nice look. The Atlantic, however, seems to be pretty stubborn. I think we run the risk of a cutter around D10 before we plunge back into the Arctic. This could be a really brutal 10 days for SNE. Euro ensembles are pretty sweet. They have a really strong signal for a storm around 1/22-23. Arctic airmasses a threat at any point beyond the 20th...though there could be a mini-one for MLK weekend behind the 1/18 threat. Hopefully it's not one of those deals where it keeps getting pushed out further in time. Seems like the best stuff is still 10 days away which is anything but a sure thing in model land. With that said, the absence of Forky trolling the forum would bode well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Euro ensembles are pretty sweet. They have a really strong signal for a storm around 1/22-23. Arctic airmasses a threat at any point beyond the 20th...though there could be a mini-one for MLK weekend behind the 1/18 threat. Yeah not sure what this brutal 10 day talk is about lol. Hell some folks may get snow Wed nite and again Sat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 The 22nd-23rd time period is starting to grow some legs, BIG legs...I am really excited for that potential time period. It is also showing up on the GFS suite as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Yeah not sure what this brutal 10 day talk is about lol. Hell some folks may get snow Wed nite and again Sat Huh? I said "could" and I think for most of SNE besides the northern hills and slantsticking little hills the next 10 days may be unpleasant before the pattern turns more favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Huh? I said "could" and I think for most of SNE besides the northern hills and slantsticking little hills the next 10 days may be unpleasant before the pattern turns more favorable. I don't really see that to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 I don't really see that to be honest. lol ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Huh? I said "could" and I think for most of SNE besides the northern hills and slantsticking little hills the next 10 days may be unpleasant before the pattern turns more favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Hopefully it's not one of those deals where it keeps getting pushed out further in time. Seems like the best stuff is still 10 days away which is anything but a sure thing in model land. With that said, the absence of Forky trolling the forum would bode well. It looks fine. All systems go it seems for a good Pacific. There is always the ceremonial cutter like Ryan talks about so I don't see what the problem is...especially when it's a discussion. Some are just very paranoid. I don't see this as a push back type pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Weeklies are pretty cold with a -EPO to start Feb. They of course weaken it a bit on week 4, but the signal is still there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 It looks fine. All systems go it seems for a good Pacific. There is always the ceremonial cutter like Ryan talks about so I don't see what the problem is...especially when it's a discussion. Some are just very paranoid. I don't see this as a push back type pattern. We all fear 01-02 and 11-12 (and 05-06 to some extent) where the goods were to come but never showed...not saying that's the case here, but after those 3 disasters, I'm never sold until it's in the shorter range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 This has not been a winter where everything is always 10 days away. until it trends otherwise we should remain optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 It looks fine. All systems go it seems for a good Pacific. There is always the ceremonial cutter like Ryan talks about so I don't see what the problem is...especially when it's a discussion. Some are just very paranoid. I don't see this as a push back type pattern. We all fear 01-02 and 11-12 (and 05-06 to some extent) where the goods were to come but never showed...not saying that's the case here, but after those 3 disasters, I'm never sold until it's in the shorter range. Why would we fear that when we haven't seen it transpire that way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Why would we fear that when we haven't seen it transpire that way? People always are jaded by the 10 days away fear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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