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12/16 flurries and 12/17 disturbance


attml

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GFS doesn't really have a second impulse. I just checked temps and we are really warm tues. Not sure it's even snow. I doubt it verbatim. One of the caveats of being south of the low. 

Yeah I noticed that too. Better scenario would be what the NAM is hinting at, as it has a colder look for what would be the Wed "event".

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I just hope it doesn't get too d@mn warm in the bl

it does get above freezing at BWI during the daylight hours which could fook the chances of accumulating snows

computers were too cold last Tuesday sooooo....

That system came in from the south.  This one is coming from the north.  Greater chance that this one will be as cold as modeled.  Who knows, maybe a little colder?  Gotta think positive.

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That system came in from the south.  This one is coming from the north.  Greater chance that this one will be as cold as modeled.  Who knows, maybe a little colder?  Gotta think positive.

if I didn't think positive being a lover of snow living near BWI, I would have been locked up years ago    lol

wrt these clippers, the fact that they are coming from the north won't change the fact that the surface winds are coming from the south in some fashion or another (SW-->SE)

my point is not to be negative but to question on the 1 hand Ian posts some snow map that looks surprising good but on the other the maps and numbers the models are putting out are warmer than those maps suggest; hence, I don't trust that snow map as much as I want it to be right

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That system came in from the south.  This one is coming from the north.  Greater chance that this one will be as cold as modeled.  Who knows, maybe a little colder?  Gotta think positive.

 

The problem is the surface lp tracks north. return flow puts us in southerly flow. Albeit weak but still from the south. meh

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Euro looks to drop nearly .1" around DC esp. near JYO tonight. Hmm.

 

yeah..euro has maybe 0.15" over the next 36 hours or so...models have been too wet the last couple winters with this scenario...but who knows...I would like some snow...though maybe some is rain or mix

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