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Pre-Christmas Winter Storm Potential

Chicago Storm

By Chicago Storm,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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chances14

chances14

Posted
Posted

GRR AFD

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...&glossary=1

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EST MON DEC 16 2013

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR WINTER STORM TO AFFECT OUR FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WITH ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE TAKES SHAPE OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION
SATURDAY AND TRACKS NE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO GET INTO SPECIFICS GIVEN UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM THAT FAR OUT IN
TIME. HOWEVER AN OVERALL CONSENSUS OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW TO IMPACT LOWER
MICHIGAN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY SINCE THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A
TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF GULF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

AS FOR MID TO LATE WEEK... WE EXPECT SOME LIGHT PCPN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR MIXED PCPN THURSDAY NIGHT AS
THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE WAVE TRACKS ENE THROUGH OUR REGION. TEMPS WILL
MODERATE VERY BRIEFLY TO AROUND 35 TO 40 DEGREES THURSDAY BEFORE
FALLING BACK TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL STARTING FRIDAY ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THAT SYSTEM.

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted

If something major continues to be modeled in the next few days, the public awareness/hype should really start to ratchet up especially given the timing with the holidays.  Wouldn't be suprised if NWS offices issue watches a little earlier than normal to get the word out.

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buckeye

buckeye

Posted
Posted

No one can top us.  NO ONE.

 

When you guys start talking about the thermals 192 hours out, get back to me. 

 

touche'.... come to think of it,  I'm pretty sure I recall a few years back,  a 14 page thread explosion within 4 hours after a 192 hr euro HECS panel.  After 14 pages Wes chimed in that temp profiles were showing a rainstorm.

Accept my apologies for attempting a comparison.

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Harry Perry

Harry Perry

Posted
Posted

GRR AFD

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...&glossary=1

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 230 PM EST MON DEC 16 2013

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR WINTER STORM TO AFFECT OUR FORECAST

AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM

WITH ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE TAKES SHAPE OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION

SATURDAY AND TRACKS NE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO GET INTO SPECIFICS GIVEN UNCERTAINTY

REGARDING EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM THAT FAR OUT IN

TIME. HOWEVER AN OVERALL CONSENSUS OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE

INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW TO IMPACT LOWER

MICHIGAN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY SINCE THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A

TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF GULF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

AS FOR MID TO LATE WEEK... WE EXPECT SOME LIGHT PCPN WEDNESDAY NIGHT

AND THURSDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR MIXED PCPN THURSDAY NIGHT AS

THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE WAVE TRACKS ENE THROUGH OUR REGION. TEMPS WILL

MODERATE VERY BRIEFLY TO AROUND 35 TO 40 DEGREES THURSDAY BEFORE

FALLING BACK TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL STARTING FRIDAY ON THE BACK

SIDE OF THAT SYSTEM.

GRR excited? DTX/LOT to follow suit and you KNOW it's something big.

You know... 1967 was some time ago. Not saying it's gotta happen again soon or anything but... ;)

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted 




IWX...



ON TO THE BIGGER STORM OVER THE WEEKEND...  



  



DURING THE TIME THIS DISCUSSION HAS BEEN WRITTEN...THE 12Z EUROPEAN   



MODEL SOLUTION CAME IN WITH AN EPIC SNOWSTORM ACROSS THE NW HALF OF   



THE CWA. THIS SOLUTION WARRANTS LITTLE MORE THAN A CHUCKLE FOR   



NOW...BUT WHAT WE DO KNOW IS THIS. ALL MODELS ARE INDICATING A   



STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF   



THE WEEKEND. THIS STORM SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT   



IMPACT ON OUR CWA REGARDLESS OF WHICH SIDE (COLD OR WARM) OF THE   



SYSTEM WE ARE ON. EURO/GFS/CANADIAN ALL HAVE MONSTER QPF OUTPUT   



WHICH IS LITTLE SURPRISE GIVEN THE PACIFIC MOISTURE FEED FROM THE   



BAJA...A FORECAST 50-80 KT LLJ FEEDING MOISTURE FROM THE FAR   



SOUTHERN GULF...AND FORECAST PWAT VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH. MODEL   



CONSENSUS IS FOR A MOSTLY HEAVY RAIN EVENT ACROSS OUR CWA WHICH ON   



TOP OF 0.5 TO 0.8 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID WATER IN OUR SNOWPACK   



AND POTENTIALLY STILL FROZEN GROUND TO NEAR 6 INCHES COULD CAUSE   



SIGNIFICANT FLOODING CONCERNS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THE ALL RAIN   



SCENARIO IS THE EUROPEAN MODEL WHICH KEEPS THE ARCTIC AIR WEDGED   



INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. MODELS HAVE A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF A SURFACE   



LOW PRESSURE TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER...THE ONLY DIFFERENCE   



BETWEEN SOLUTIONS IS A 1040 MB HIGH THAT THE EUROPEAN PARKS ACROSS   



THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE EVENT WHICH SUPPLIES A CONSTANT FEED   



OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THIS SYSTEM. THIS WILL BE THE FEATURE TO WATCH AS   



THIS STORM SYSTEM EVOLVES. THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THIS HIGH   



PRESSURE CENTER WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON OUR PRECIP TYPE.   



  



EXPECT TO SEE THE LOW PRESSURE TRACK AND AMOUNT OF ARCTIC AIR   



INTRUSION INTO THE SYSTEM CHANGE MULTIPLE TIMES IN THE COMING DAYS   



SINCE THIS SYSTEM IS STILL 6 DAYS AWAY...BUT THE RAIN/SNOW LINE DOES   



APPEAR LIKE IT WILL SETUP SOMEWHERE IN OR NEAR OUR CWA GOING INTO   



THE WEEKEND. STAY TUNED TO SEE HOW THE FORECAST EVOLVES AHEAD OF   



THIS POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM.  







			
		


		

		
	


	

	





	
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Seriously, if this pattern can deliver 18" of snow, that would most likely fall to the north of where the Euro suggests at this point, but on the other hand, the GGEM is clearly delusional about bringing 570 dm thickness into central PA and eastern OH. That would imply highs into the mid 70s in WV and near 70 in eastern OH. Can't see the real solution being that different from a more GFS-like compromise which would involve a band of freezing rain, a warm sector with 55-60 deg foggy drizzly sort of weather and a swath of 8-12 inch snows across n IL, se WI, s/c MI and parts of ON. All of that could be preceded by a day or two of foggy, drizzly weather in the 38-42 F range. My predicted snowfall jackpot would be something like ORD to LAN in the 8-12 range, think DTW will see a bit of everything and would be lucky to get 24-26 cm of snow let alone inches. Maybe more like 4-6. 


 


With the anticyclonic curvature of the jet, most of the precip is going to fall as over-running rather than convective and I don't see what mechanism can bring 3 or 4 inch rainfalls into play except maybe closer to the Gulf coast. Rainfall amounts for central and southern IN into OH would more likely be 1-2 inches and even there, some below 1 inch. 


 


Those are my early thoughts, now off to lunch with my nephew, he's doing a great job of running the country and he says he has big news for me. 



			
		


		

		
	


	

	





	
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The 850 passes pretty much over Champaign but the wxbell map shows them with 1'+....


 


lol at WxBell..


 


Oh and yep the euro ensembles did not budge again. Thus see last nights 00z, yesterdays 12z, etc.. Not sure i can recall the last time i saw this with a system expected to impact this region other then GHD?



			
		


		

		
			

		
	


	

	





	
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LOT will just talk about potential, too far out to say, etc. Will be really surprised if they lean on or favor a solution. DVN will be the weenie read.


Nailed it.


 


SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THIS PERIOD BEARS WATCHING AS ENERGY FROM


THE SOUTHERN STREAM CUTOFF UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO KICK NORTHEAST


THIS WEEKEND AS A REINFORCING UPPER TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE


NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL LIKELY SEND A SURFACE LOW AND/OR INVERTED


TROUGH NORTHEAST WITH RECENT GUIDANCE BRINGING IT SOUTHEAST OF THE


AREA. RIGHT NOW THE FAVORED TIME FOR THE SYSTEM TO BRING PRECIP TO


THE AREA WOULD BE LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. GIVEN THE PRECEDING


SHIFT IN THE UPPER FLOW TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN AHEAD OF THE


TROUGHED FLOW...THERMAL FIELDS WILL BE MORE CRITICAL IN THAT THEY


WILL LIKELY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR A RANGE OF PRECIP TYPES TO OCCUR


DEPENDING ON WHERE THE LOW TRACKS. OVERALL SYSTEM STRENGTH AND


MOISTURE FEED SUPPORT HIGHER END PRECIP AMOUNTS WITH AFFECTED AREAS


DEPENDING ON THE TRACK. STILL VERY EARLY TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN


DETAILS GIVEN THE EVOLUTION OF UPPER FLOW THAT NEEDS TO TAKE PLACE


IN THE MEANTIME BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR A SYSTEM TO


BE AFFECTING THE REGION.


 



			
		


		

		
			

		
	


	

	





	
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