joey2002 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 It's December 9th. Every storm has underachieved NWS forecasts though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 link, por favor my map shows less than 20% probs for anywhere getting 4 inches Meaning they weren't there before. not that the %'s increased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 link, por favor my map shows less than 20% probs for anywhere getting 4 inches the probs you see are right, at first it literally had 0 for anything over 2 inches... the big change was showing probs of 1-10 percent from anything higher than 4 inches. there was just a lag at first when i reported the map was out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Meaning they weren't there before. not that the %'s increased. It's around a 50% chance for me, Phil and Ginxy for 2"...that seems fair. The GFS is going to trim back I don't think there's any doubt on that. The wild card is the potential for some banding, but we'll have to wait and see. 1-3"...and maybe 2-4 on the immediate coast is a possibility. We do this dance every system it seems that's maginal. The euro swings way right and comes left...the NCEP stuff goes way left and eventually they converge. NAM/GFS are often the first to come around to the idea of some storm....but always Rick Robey the free throw and go too far. Shortest term the Euro will have been closer to right with .2 to .3...but it was also totally blind to the system until 18 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 The way this winter has been going, I'd be surprised if we got more than an inch here. 1-3" NW to SE statewide seems like a good call. A bit early to be tossing in the towel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 those percentages are experimental I think......and they are much less bullish then SREF's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 It's December 9th. And it usually snows more than it has season to date Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 those percentages are experimental I think......and they are much less bullish then SREF's Not at all, they are derived from the Forecaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Every storm has underachieved NWS forecasts though... In a sample size of about 2 or 3? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 And it usually snows more than it has season to date Yeah that was my point... we're still waiting for our first snowfall > than 1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 South Beach jackpot. 1-4" should cover it from PVD-TAN southeast. Maybe a spot 5 where/if a band tracks over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 And it usually snows more than it has season to date Why does your area of CT foster the worst weenies? Metherb is the exception. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Yeah that was my point... we're still waiting for our first snowfall > than 1". There's def a different mentatlity from interior hill folks to coastal folks on when it should snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Why does your area of CT foster the worst weenies? Metherb is the exception. Same reason your area of E Ma fosters the worst weenies... Messenger being the exception Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 There's def a different mentatlity from interior hill folks to coastal folks on when it should snow Apparently cstl folks are the more reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 expect an inch, hope for 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Falmouth, MA will hit the jackpot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Coastal folk are tougher and can handle it when things don't pan out as expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Why does your area of CT foster the worst weenies? Metherb is the exception. I meant the way the past month has been going... winter was just the wrong word. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Coastal folk are tougher and can handle it when things don't pan out as expected It always pays to know your climo well...then it illustrates the reality of certain expectations. Knowing the variance of climo is probably just as important. If someone "averages" 4.0" of snow to this point in the season, that average is comprised of a whole plethora of years where snowfall was either close to 0" or 10". Near 0" being the mode and the average gets "inflated" by years where we might have had a 11" snowstorm on 12/5 or something. 2010, I didn't receive my first 1" snowfall until 12/23. 2008 I didn't receive it until 12/19. 2007 I didn't receive it until 12/13. Those are 3 recent years that ended up above normal for snowfall despite relatively "late" first events over 1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Coastal folk are tougher and can handle it when things don't pan out as expectedFortunately, we get more chances in the hillsEnjoy Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 18z RGEM is similar from what I can tell. Looks like it's got about 10 mm on the extreme south coast give or take and cape cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Seems fair..though maybe a smidge high http://www.wxrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/1stguesDEC10.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Seems fair..though maybe a smidge high http://www.wxrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/1stguesDEC10.jpg just a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 just a bit He always finds the most optimistic forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 He always finds the most optimistic forecast. I like to look at a bunch ..I don't like to just see negative ones or positive ones. You avg them all out..you can generally get a feeling for how much to expect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 i can't ignore the excellent snow growth on the nam/gfs. i know the euro has less precip but i wish i had access to soundings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Even though the Euro has less in the way of QPF, it has a decent amount of 700mb frontogenesis ans lift over at least the southern parts of CT. This is so intriguing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 DTs map is an I84 CT weenie special.... for as much as this kind of a system can produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 A 20 mile shift that models may miss could mean the difference between a couple inches and like 6+...... That band looks powerful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.