TalcottWx Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I see a band of heavy snow being possible. Let me know if you see an actual super band. To me, this is a super band. probably roll back your pessimism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 if this is going to bust in one direction..there's a better chance of it busting positive..given all the things in our favor..with fluff factor, frontogenesis and unstable layer. There's not that many cons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Oh I know, that's why I'm out of here as soon as college ends haha. Well partially anyway. It takes a whole different course when there have been chances that fizzle out, takes a little wind out of the sails Eh, your not in a HORRIBLE place by any means. Of course not optimal! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 no i'm looking forward to the snow, no doubt. i just get the feeling that people see this busting in a positive direction, maybe based on what happened in the MA yesterday i feel like...and it's just an apples and oranges comparison. that's all. it all comes down to meso bands. I call them "super bands".. but i guess that word affects some non mets pessimistic views. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I see a band of heavy snow being possible. Let me know if you see an actual super band. To me, this is a super band. meso-band, super-band. same chit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Here's what I see: A 1-2" snowfall for southern, sne with a mesoband setting up somewhere around the south shore or north leaving many in subsidence limiting amounts and dry air up towards me on the fringe resulting in a heavy accumulation of virga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 if this is going to bust in one direction..there's a better chance of it busting positive..given all the things in our favor..with fluff factor, frontogenesis and unstable layer. There's not that many cons You are right...but there is one pretty important one. The best dynamics may be about 100 miles too far SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 if this is going to bust in one direction..there's a better chance of it busting positive..given all the things in our favor..with fluff factor, frontogenesis and unstable layer. There's not that many cons i disagree. violenty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Nice AFD from BOX... I don't read them often but that one was full of relevant science and good meteorology. Agree 100% with them and see the (low) potential for big upside bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 You are right...but there is one pretty important one. The best dynamics may be about 100 miles too far SE. yeah plays a bit of a part in weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 You are right...but there is one pretty important one. The best dynamics may be about 100 miles too far SE. You aren't going to need dynamics tomorrow to drop a regionwide 1-3..Now if you mean 6+ then yes...but it should be easy to get 1-3 north of the pike even Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 RAP looks decent http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=RAP&grid=255&model_yyyy=2013&model_mm=12&model_dd=09&model_init_hh=23&fhour=18¶meter=CREF&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=loopmaps&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false … Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 if this is going to bust in one direction..there's a better chance of it busting positive..given all the things in our favor..with fluff factor, frontogenesis and unstable layer. There's not that many cons Ha! Except missing the decent forcing by 100+ miles. Stop while you're ahead lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 You aren't going to need dynamics tomorrow to drop a regionwide 1-3..Now if you mean 6+ then yes...but it should be easy to get 1-3 north of the pike even Did you not read our posts earlier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 no i'm looking forward to the snow, no doubt. i just get the feeling that people see this busting in a positive direction, maybe based on what happened in the MA yesterday i feel like...and it's just an apples and oranges comparison. that's all. Well I think there is some of that sentiment of a positive bust (from M.A) ....but also more due to the fact that modeling didn't have this really and brought it back more in the last day, I think if people can Separate those two perspectives, and take in what mets here said regarding uncertainty of NW extent of precip and potential meso banding in SNE and I think anyone counting on more than 2 inches is probably foolish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Did you not read our posts earlier? After all these years you have to ask this question? Sure there is bust potential on the downside but don't forget about the Gulf Stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 You aren't going to need dynamics tomorrow to drop a regionwide 1-3..Now if you mean 6+ then yes...but it should be easy to get 1-3 north of the pike even hey - i hope it snows everywhere. but i think some key ingredients are missing...especially north of the south coast. hopefully the guidance products are right with the widespread QPF. to be fair though, i guess 1-3 "regionwide" is fine if you consider a range from N to S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 And I got news for you. You have no idea the frustration that will happen if you are getting dim sun while 15 miles to your south there is S+. You think not getting more than an inch of snow is frustrating? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Here's what I see: A 1-2" snowfall for southern, sne with a mesoband setting up somewhere around the south shore or north leaving many in subsidence limiting amounts and dry air up towards me on the fringe resulting in a heavy accumulation of virga thats what pretty much everyone sees. just because im optimistic about a possible MESO-BAND reaching the south shore, overproducing to maybe 6-8" totals somewhere.....you whip out the "curb your enthusiasm" post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 There is definitely bust potential in the positive direction, but everyone should understand that there is certianly bust potential in the negative direction too due to subsidence and low level dry air draining from the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 And I got news for you. You have no idea the frustration that will happen if you are getting dim sun while 15 miles to your south there is S+. You think not getting more than an inch of snow is frustrating? LMAO BTW the RAP kev posted is "a weenie dream" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 can we just enjoy our snow? why do we do this in every thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 And I got news for you. You have no idea the frustration that will happen if you are getting dim sun while 15 miles to your south there is S+. You think not getting more than an inch of snow is frustrating?Who are you talking to in this tone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 LMAO BTW the RAP kev posted is "a weenie dream" yeah, waiting for the 0Z run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Who are you talking to in this tone? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 There is definitely bust potential in the positive direction, but everyone should understand that there is certianly bust potential in the negative direction too due to subsidence and low level dry air draining from the NW. Yep reminds me of all those systems where the canal is the cutoff to meaningful precip. Looks like the main band could miss most of us SE but we should have the western band to contend with....speed of the system will keep it moving which is why I think most in ri and ese ma see at least 1-3" south of blue hill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 LMAO BTW the RAP kev posted is "a weenie dream" I have no idea how it's been performing but one can think it at least has some validity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Aren't they Springfield?...most of their viewing area is SE of you. To be sure, I think there are 12 people in their viewing area that are north of me. But just the same, they will likely wind up with less than an inch. Not exactly 'teaser-worthy'. But then again, not much happens out this way except for local h.s. sports and the crazy murder in Pete's hood. So, I guess an inch of snow You are right...but there is one pretty important one. The best dynamics may be about 100 miles too far SE. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 There is definitely bust potential in the positive direction, but everyone should understand that there is certianly bust potential in the negative direction too due to subsidence and low level dry air draining from the NW. I'm pretty confident I'm 1-2 down this way but up toward the pike I agree it's more tenuous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Who are you talking to in this tone? Just a general statement, there is no tone. I'm still on the record for not really feeling this event past the south coast, but I hope I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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