ORH_wxman Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Why not? One was issued last night Because they will issue one for any amount of freezing rain. It wasn't the snow that triggered it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Because they will issue one for any amount of freezing rain. It wasn't the snow that triggered it. Ahh I did not know that, makes sense though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 So do the red taggers buy the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 School is knocking me out this final week, wish I could stay up for the euro but not likely. Was able to get out if work early at 11 tomorrow hopefully I'm home in time for most of the event. 35 here.... Steady drop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 So do the red taggers buy the GFS? I would ask James. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 This is what I mean. Look how there is very little north of this band. Outsiders looking in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 So where does that set up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I would ask James. Well it is kind of time to stake the claim one way or the other. Should weenie nation believe the GFS or no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Well it is kind of time to stake the claim one way or the other. Should weenie nation believe the GFS or no? i think it's splitting hairs outside of the N extent of the precip shield. there's not much to believe or not to believe, imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 This is what I mean. Look how there is very little north of this band. Outsiders looking in. cref_t3sfc_f15.png This also illustrates why mpm should not worry so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I do not believe the GFS's depiction of getting advisory snows to Rt 2 or even a bit north. I think the advisory amounts are generally SE of a BOS-HFD line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 The agreement in initialization right now between the HRRR and RAP is about as good as I have ever seen it, they even handle the intense band from DE through NYC similarly from 13-16Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 This also illustrates why mpm should not worry so much. He'll be drinking coffee watching the disc of the sun shine in of that is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 This is what I mean. Look how there is very little north of this band. Outsiders looking in. cref_t3sfc_f15.png almost looks like standing g-wave disrupting lift, with up-down-up pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 So where does that set up? exactly. depends on where the good lift is in the 6h to 5h layer. north of there, i think it's essentially a "non-event". i know that we can make out well even with good lift that high up...my only concern is the propensity for banding to be co-located where 7h fronto is maximized....if that's further south, i'm afraid that hole band on that HRRR is sitting over ACK. hopefully not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 This could turn into an interesting now-cast, folks... V-max translate very near or right over head; might draw this a bit closer. Also, cooling cloud tops in the TV are moving pretty smartly NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 So where does that set up? if we knew, we'd have the tag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I do not believe the GFS's depiction of getting advisory snows to Rt 2 or even a bit north. I think the advisory amounts are generally SE of a BOS-HFD line. I found that odd too; think I mentioned that a while ago... But, then I paid some attention to the wind streak trajectory (v-max) and I'm wondering why that much dpva can't pull this a bit more NW. I tell you what, my Met buddy and I have the Euro and GFS war a 1 to 2, respectively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 if we knew, we'd have the tag. So what I mean is that 20 or 30 miles makes a a big difference. Part of me wants to think this makes it to the pike. But, the caution flag in me doesn't want to bite and keep it south. If the GFS is right you have great 700-500 fronto right the pike and just beyond. But it is impossible to determine where this sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I found that odd too; think I mentioned that a while ago... But, then I paid some attention to the wind streak trajectory (v-max) and I'm wondering why that much dpva can't pull this a bit more NW. I tell you what, my Met buddy and I have the Euro and GFS war a 1 to 2, respectively. I think this is exactly the crux of the differences in the models. Let's face it if the euro has a weakness it's in systems coming out from of or near the sw. To me the difference is how much of a tug the vortmax gives. Euro may have underplayed this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 There might not be anything above the band. Maybe a snizzle coating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 So what I mean is that 20 or 30 miles makes a a big difference. Part of me wants to think this makes it to the pike. But, the caution flag in me doesn't want to bite and keep it south. If the GFS is right you have great 700-500 fronto right the pike and just beyond. But it is impossible to determine where this sets up. Wouldnt the higher res guidance exhibit the precip fields more accurately, esp with banding and subsidence ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 That cutoff almost looks norlun trough like? I know it's not one. But that has a look of 6 inches in 1 town and a coating in another Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I Would have to give the hrrr more credibility than the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Burbank staying with 1-3" Ggem pegged to the south coast like the rgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Wouldnt the higher res guidance exhibit the precip fields more accurately, esp with banding and subsidence ? Yeah they would. That run is probably half virga north of the main band on the HRRR. I would love for the GFS to be right. Like I said..it's been steadfast and 00z did not back down. If anything it ticked NW and I'm a little nervous we may be seeing signs of banding further north as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 My guess is euro holds serve or maybe ticks NW. Night all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Rap is still impressive.m. Radar is impressive. We should know when we awaken. Radar is a dead ringer for the January 1997 event that was supposed to miss but I got 7 inches of fluff one lovely Saturday morning. XC skiing all afternoon in the arboretum that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Then there are the WRF-NMM hires models that have nothing NW of Brockton...lol. That's the idea of very little NW of this band which I buy. The question is where does the band set up. I will say the one thing where I've had some luck with is VVs even up to 500mb. Yes this is rather high, but it can helped along by mid level forcing. When I see that get to the pike..it makes me think that's where a band has potential to get to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Rap is still impressive.m. Radar is impressive. We should know when we awaken. Radar is a dead ringer for the January 1997 event that was supposed to miss but I got 7 inches of fluff one lovely Saturday morning. XC skiing all afternoon in the arboretum that day. Your memory amazes me. God bless you sir! My wife asked me today if I fed the dogs this morning and I couldnt remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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