Thunder Road Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Still another 40 min to the D2, the D1 comes out faster than the D2 in standard time. Its not out till 2am... the SPC day 2 page says by 0700 It comes out at 0700 UTC during standard time. Whoops, didn't know they didn't shift it with the time change. My bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 16, 2013 Author Share Posted November 16, 2013 Notable part of day 1 outlook BY THE EARLY SUN MORNING...SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN OVER CNTRL IA...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ACCELERATING EWD. WITH NEARLY SATURATED LOW-LEVELS...TSTMS MAY REMAIN NEAR-SFC BASED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE MOIST AXIS/WARM CONVEYOR...AND COULD SUPPORT A DMGG WIND AND PERHAPS A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO THREAT GIVEN STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 So will we probably see scattered cellular activity along the cold front then (a.k.a. hit and miss type)? I would guess a broken line of supercells for the first few hours, which will eventually transition to more of a squall line with embedded sups. The model depiction from earlier in the thread showed a firm, undercut looking line of storms. I really can't see a scenario like that actually happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 I'm away from home this weekend and don't have access to my usual resources, but this is one I'm keeping as close of an eye on as I can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 New day 2 is out: http://kamala.cod.edu/spc/latest.acus02.KWNS.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Not covering much of IL, although it does include Chicagoland, all of IN, much of OH, the southern half of MI and N KY. Tornadoes not emphasized nearly as much as the damaging wind threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Day 2 moderate for Chicago proper and eastward, including Detroit, all of IN and OH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Not covering much of IL, although it does include Chicagoland, all of IN, much of OH, the southern half of MI and N KY. Tornadoes not emphasized nearly as much as the damaging wind threat. It seems folks are just waiting to make sure these models arent kooky before they go gungho on the tor threat. Because obviously the threat so far seems very high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 There is this: SHOULD SFC BASED WARM SECTORINITIATION OCCUR...80+ KT MID-LEVEL WSWLY WINDS WILL PROMOTE FASTMOVING STORMS THAT SHOULD REMAIN AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT.THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE DISCRETE WHERE LARGE HODOGRAPHS AND 50+KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCINGLARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. HOWEVER...DEGREE OF THE TORNADO THREAT/SHOULD THESE STORMS DEVELOP/ WILL DEPEND ON MAGNITUDE OFDESTABILIZATION WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 16, 2013 Author Share Posted November 16, 2013 It can be difficult to pin down the magnitude of various hazards (hail/wind/tornado) even on the day of the event and even for the most skilled folks. I think SPC probably sees what we do...that the potential is there for this to get pretty ugly but we are talking about minor things that can tip this either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 It can be difficult to pin down the magnitude of various hazards (hail/wind/tornado) even on the day of the event and even for the most skilled folks. I think SPC probably sees what we do...that the potential is there for this to get pretty ugly but we are talking about minor things that can tip this either way. I like southeast IL, south-central IN down to the Ohio River area on the KY border for the best discrete potential ahead of the main surging line of storms. Would be surprised to see a pretty strong tornado in that area IF discrete storms can fire out ahead of the line and IF enough destabilization occurs. Looks like I'll be heading for that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Interesting point made by SPC that theta-e advection beneath strong lapse rates will be the prime mover for destabilization in this set up. Given the dynamics as many here have been indicating we need not be concerned with insolation issues for this to be quite damaging and extensive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Looks like the Euro comes through with a major win. Probably one of the most legit tor threats for Chicago in a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
extremewx52 Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 IWX Local WRF for 21Z Sunday. Trys to develop storms along a pre frontal trough too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 I like southeast IL, south-central IN down to the Ohio River area on the KY border for the best discrete potential ahead of the main surging line of storms. Would be surprised to see a pretty strong tornado in that area IF discrete storms can fire out ahead of the line and IF enough destabilization occurs. Looks like I'll be heading for that area. Tough area to chase. If things pop early enough west of Martin and Dubois county would be your best bet visibility wise. The only way you are going to see anything east of there is to be under it. Storms are going supposed to be moving pretty fast and roads are not conducive to quick movement once you get into the hill country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Looks like the Euro comes through with a major win. Probably one of the most legit tor threats for Chicago in a long time. Wow, saw that this is getting very serious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Been watching the clouds screaming north this morning along with gusts being transported down from time to time, strong jet in place transporting moisture. Anyway, for tomorrow... 4KM NAM initiates by 18z west of Chicago. Looks like storms are near there by 19z. Surface CAPE above 1800. SRH would suggest they'd spin. The NAM does develop morning junk in the area, but it pushes north out of the area. I would definitely watch for mesoscale boundaries from that for enhanced tornado potential.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Totally different setup, but since I started working at LOT in July 2010, this is the most legit looking widespread potential for the CWA since 4/10/11. Very concerned for this area because people here already are not prepared for tornadoes, then add to the mix that it's November. Sent from my SCH-I535 So narrowly missing 6/5/10. Quite a few WFOs have the problem of properly conveying the threat at this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Notable part of day 1 outlook BY THE EARLY SUN MORNING...SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN OVER CNTRL IA...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ACCELERATING EWD. WITH NEARLY SATURATED LOW-LEVELS...TSTMS MAY REMAIN NEAR-SFC BASED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE MOIST AXIS/WARM CONVEYOR...AND COULD SUPPORT A DMGG WIND AND PERHAPS A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO THREAT GIVEN STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. Obviously not as potent as the main energy, but both the NAM and GFS have a PV anomaly crossing eastern IA early Sunday. This could certainly provide the impetus for storms in that part of the warm sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 I have been around thist board long enough to know that when the people in the know here start taking something seriously, it's time to pay attention. I understand the concept of what is being talked about, even if the nuts and bolts escape me. It looks like there is potential for a serious threat tomorrow for the Chicago area. By looking at everyone's maps, and reading the discussions from SPC, and others, I can grasp what is going on. However, after watching the local mets this morning on 2, 5, and 7. I cannot for the life of me understand why this is being played down. All anyone has talked about this morning is today's rain, and the possibility of more tomorrow. Only one TV station mentioned the possibility of a severe storm tomorrow. Last night, at 10 o'clock one met even put the heavy rain to the north, and talked about the Chicago area getting maybe .3" of rain. He mentioned the "breezy conditions" for today, and Sunday but that's as far as it went. I was trying to explain to my better half what tomorrow may hold, but she wasn't having any of it. "just some rain and maybe some wind" is how she dismissed it. Granted, I get that tomorrow depends on initiation, as well as some other factors, but the situation for tomorrow looks serious, and definitely something that looks like it is going to have to be "now-casted" based on how things develop. I don't remember the last time I ever saw a threat like this in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 No one likes to get the public in a stir, which I can understand. However, to dismiss it as breezy and rain is ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 increasing agreement on initiation just west of Chicago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 12z SPC WRF... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 for what it's worth, the 09z SREF 24-hour severe weather probs are high-- and extend to the south significant tornado ingredients Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Terrifying to think about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 12z SPC WRF... Tony beat me to the helicity image from that time. SREF tornado ingredients probability pumping out 60% again, not all that common. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
extremewx52 Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 For the heck of it I compared 12Z NAM values to the SPC Sig Tor Climatology for Northern Indiana. This is what I got. Tomorrow's values at 18Z are plotted by the yellow arrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 New Day 2 shifts MOD risk back west some... 0700 had it at IL/IN line... 1730 has it back toward C Illinois... now includes all of Chicago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Terrifying to think about. mxuphl_f34_1200UTC_20131116.gif Duh question, but the 2200 on that means the LOT area severe threat is later in the afternoon now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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