CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 GFS seems realistic with no real inv trough Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 GFS seems realistic with no real inv trough Sunday. The trend since the 18z runs yesterday has been to weaken the northern stream a tad. That's also helped us down the road a bit regarding next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 The last time we saw this kind of coming cold in Nov may be 1979 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2013 Author Share Posted November 21, 2013 The last time we saw this kind of coming cold in Nov may be 1979 1979 was a furnace in November...like +5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 GFS seems realistic with no real inv trough Sunday. Yup.. Deep NW flow with deep deep cold for this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 1979 was a furnace in November...like +5 I think he means 1976 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 I was thinking normal to a bit above..I don't think anyone..met or weenie thought we'd see the kind of cold month we've seen. it's pretty amazing really when you think about it. It just goes to show how LR forecasting really is voodoo Not so voodoo, Oct 17th Going to try something new this year instead of a winter outlook I am going to try to break the rest of fall, and going into winter, down in 6 week increments based on a formula I have been testing with a little success. The images presented capture moments in time of the week, a static 5H height for a given day in a given week. i will describe what I expect to happen and what I expect deviations will be as well as periods where potential storminess will occur. Of course please chime in. I will score each week based on a Friday to Thursday deviation for two stations near me IJD and ORH. These forecasts are only for fun and experimental, don't kill me if I bust horribly. also these roughly represent my back yard with some region wide stuff thrown in. In a nutshell, looks pretty darn cold through November to me and starting Dec more of the same. I will not update until 12/6/13, it is what it is. I expect the PNA to be positive, EPO neg and NAO negative as a whole on average . WEEK 1 Ending 11/1/13 Much below normal for the week with temperatures -3 to-5 BN region wide, potential for minor precip events with possible Mtn, elevated snow, upslope snow and LES WEEK 2 Ending 11/8/13 A continuation of somewhat below normal temps -1 to-3 region wide with the potential for a cutter and a widespread rain event, possible redeveloping as a Miller B allowing for far interior snow WEEK 3 Ending 11/15/13 a return to a colder regime with temps -3-5 below normal, a potential phase change wet event prior to the cold outbreak, this again could be a cutter with possible a follow up coastal bringing a more region wide elevated snow to the Berks , Greens, Whites Week 4 Ending 11/22/13 A change to a warmer week with region wide warmth, pretty dry with warm frontal showers Temps +3 to +7 Week 5 Ending 11/29/13 A massive shift in temps with some very cold air finishing out the month, possible heavy snow almost to the coast with interior areas getting the most. Temps -4 to -6 Week 6 Ending 12/6/13 Possible record cold with a region wide blanket of snow, maybe heavy , Miller B type with a clipper thrown in. temps- 5 to -7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 1979 was a furnace in November...like +5Did I mean 1980? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 GFS not much for next week, mostly goes OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 GFS not much for next week, mostly goes OTS Drought bringing more drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Drought bringing more drought. I might get back to back months with less than .50 for each...amazing for this time of year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 the end of the gfs run is insanely cold! wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Another win run for colder SSTs. Maybe we can avoid a December 29 2012 type situation along the coastline due to last years torched sst's... though any storm would be nice at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 12z GFS ensembles look nothing like the op run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 The 12z GEFS mean is well north and west of the OP. It resembles the 00z ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2013 Author Share Posted November 21, 2013 I never know if there is any truth to these Gefs posts or if it's just weenies looking for straws It is definitely NW of the OP, but its warm. There is probably very little chance of accumulating snow on the coast in this...esp further south. The interior might get something, but even then its going to need to take a fairly narrow track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 I never said it was snow. Just pointing out that it's nothing like the OP. It phases both streams at hour 150. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 After the GFS came out Noyes actually upped the probability of precip from coastal in SNE from 60 to 65% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Even the NAVGEM which is known for it's progressive bias phases the two streams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 I never said it was snow. Just pointing out that it's nothing like the OP. It phases both streams at hour 150. An ensemble mean can't show phasing of both streams. The mean could indicate that a majority of members phase the streams but ensemble means are just averages of each ensemble member - it's really not (and shouldn't be treated as) a separate computer model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 An ensemble mean can't show phasing of both streams. The mean could indicate that a majority of members phase the streams but ensemble means are just averages of each ensemble member - it's really not (and shouldn't be treated as) a separate computer model. That's what I meant, I assumed everyone knew that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 I just checked ... the 12z GFS ensemble have a few more members on-board for stream interaction heading into mid week. Right now the will-be S/W quasi-closed vortex is slipping S as an outside slider along the West Coast. We'll see what it does when it turns the corner and cuts. It could very well acquire an addition closed contour or so, indicating a deeper system. That would need to be conserved post-ejection, and one thing it could do is entice the N-stream to come down further as it passes the latitude of the MV. That's basically the difference between the 00z and 12z NAVGEM (though this not a deterministic statement, just that it exemplifies the uncertainty). I like Cisco's take on this: ...LOW CROSSING THE SOUTH AND TURNING UP THE EAST COAST NEXT WEEK A CONCERN FOR TRAVEL..WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL HANGING BACK OVER NORTHERN MEXICO, THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION SPREAD DOWNSTREAM REMAINS ENORMOUS. WHENTHAT WAVE FINALLY EJECTS, ITS NORTHERN EXTENT WILL BE SUBJECT TO THE PHASE OF THE PROGRESSION OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS SAILING ASTRIDETHE CANADIAN BORDER. RELIED ON THE 06Z/21 GEFS MEAN AS A SYNOPTIC BACKGROUND FOR THE FRONTS AND PRESSURES THIS PACKAGE. THISPARTICULAR ENSEMBLE MEAN KEPT MORE BAGGINESS IN THE ISOBARIC PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY--AREFLECTION OF A CLUSTER OF ITS INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS THAT INDICATED A SLOWER EJECTION. SLOWER IS USUALLY BETTER WITH REGARD TO THEPROGRESS OF SUCH SOUTHWEST HANGBACK TROUGHS, SO WANTED TO HEDGE BETS IN THAT DIRECTION. PERUSAL OF THE 20 ENSEMBLE MEMBERSCOMPRISING THE 06Z/21 GEFS MEAN SHOWED DRAMATIC VARIATION--SOME DRY, COLD SOLUTIONS FOR THE EAST COAST--SOME SNOWY ONES FROM THETENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC--SOME RAINY, WINDY ONES ALL THE WAY INTO NEW ENGLAND. PRECIPITATION TYPE ASIDE, THE WAVE WILLSTILL AFFECT MAJOR AIRPORTS FROM DALLAS TO ATLANTA, AND PROBABLY THE BIG HUBS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THE ALWAYS-BUSY TRAVELDAYS BEFORE THANKSGIVING.....CISCO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2013 Author Share Posted November 21, 2013 Euro still looks a bit windexy for Sunday morning...it doesn't have that more defined inverted trough like 12z yesterday, but I still think there should be a lot of flurries around for a time with maybe some embedded snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Euro still looks a bit windexy for Sunday morning...it doesn't have that more defined inverted trough like 12z yesterday, but I still think there should be a lot of flurries around for a time with maybe some embedded snow showers. 120 is interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Euro brings the low right up our fanny. No QPF worries there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Im making contingency plans to do turkey day in central vt @ 1400' . I was up there last year for the post xmas storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Euro brings the low right up our fanny. No QPF worries there. Where is Mike, This should satisfy his fetish, But the wrong way, Floods us with warmth with a 988mb low tracking right thru DE Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Well Brian 12345 will be happy with his 1-2" of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Where is Mike, This should satisfy his fetish, But the wrong way, Floods us with warmth with a 988mb low over DE Maine That's why it's a fine line. It either tries to phase or the srn energy ejects out ahead of the nrn stream and shoots it north, or nothing happens and it moves out to sea. Virtually impossible for a mostly snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 We walk a fine line with this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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