powderfreak Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 The GEFS must have many wound up members to have the 850 low go over MPM. Wow that is really far west for that feature. That must flood the region with warmth at that level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 The northern stream retreats up into southern Canada. Then a low forms in the gulf of Alaska. That will change though. The models have been hinting at another potential the first week of December. I still think we relax sometime during the first few days of December. The GEFS break down the Aleutian ridge a bit, but then develop lower heights south of there which normally would pump up AK heights, so hope for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Glad to see things are back to normal. Euro showing the storm track over our heads while the GFS is miles out to sea. Split the difference and call it even? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 The 1st week of december looks like it could be the next period of significance Yeah some signals there from all models. One of the reasons I told Brian 123456789 I'm not worried about QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 That's a very mild look to the CONUS at the end. Pretty significant difference then the 0z euro had Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Glad to see things are back to normal. Euro showing the storm track over our heads while the GFS is miles out to sea. Split the difference and call it even? I actually think the GEFS are reasonable, but my guess is as good as throwing a dart in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Yeah some signals there from all models. One of the reasons I told Brian 123456789 I'm not worried about QPF. Yeah even Mike would be cool with that........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Glad to see things are back to normal. Euro showing the storm track over our heads while the GFS is miles out to sea. Split the difference and call it even? We are establishing the uprights Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 I actually think the GEFS are reasonable, but my guess is as good as throwing a dart in this pattern. It would be if you compare it to both the GFS and Euro op runs, But we are days away on this one with all this spread amongst the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 I actually think the GEFS are reasonable, but my guess is as good as throwing a dart in this pattern. Ya I just looked a the GEFS mean. Seems reasonable with the SLP track near or over CC. The op is so far from the mean it is kind of comical. I do wish that I had a better resource for the euro ensembles though. Might try to look into something for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Is anywhere in mountains snow on this run, Vt/Nh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 I think the Euro is a solution that could trend colder as we get closer. If that phase occurs just a little sooner and we get a deeper low at our latitude, it's going to pull down some cold air on the backside. Dynamics could also come into play, especially for the corridor just NW of I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Is anywhere in mountains snow on this run, Vt/Nh? PF country on N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Is anywhere in mountains snow on this run, Vt/Nh? I could weenie out to this all afternoon, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2013 Author Share Posted November 21, 2013 The track of this is going to shift like 200 miles or more per run right now. No sense in getting worked up over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 FYI threadex is now a full climo site with tons of info. Since 1947 the lowest temp recorded at ORH is 6 degrees in 1989, the 192 Euro surface depiction is just insane, threadex here http://threadex.rcc-acis.org/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 The track of this is going to shift like 200 miles or more per run right now. No sense in getting worked up over it. This what this board does best in the winter though, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 I could weenie out to this all afternoon, lol. ecm_snow1.jpg ecm_snow2.jpg Thanks ill be in randolph vt (1420') if this happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 This is the map I saw..so was basing it off of that pic.twitter.com/yLCyFnz1ej Slushy inch on 12z Euro map... pic.twitter.com/gIoznGxRxd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 I think the Euro is a solution that could trend colder as we get closer. If that phase occurs just a little sooner and we get a deeper low at our latitude, it's going to pull down some cold air on the backside. Dynamics could also come into play, especially for the corridor just NW of I-95. Quite unlikely IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2013 Author Share Posted November 21, 2013 This what this board does best in the winter though, haha. Typical impatience in early season...people grasp to 6-8 day events, and then by mid winter, the weenieism dies down a little for events that far out (but not totally of course) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 NAM appears to have brought the Sunday clipper system further south, while the GFS and EURO really show a non event for Cape Cod, MA and areas further northwest. SO right now it looks like a non event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Slushy inch on 12z Euro map... pic.twitter.com/gIoznGxRxd Absolutely no way there's 17.6" on the ground here for Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
centralmass Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2013 Author Share Posted November 21, 2013 NAM appears to have brought the Sunday clipper system further south, while the GFS and EURO really show a non event for Cape Cod, MA and areas further northwest. SO right now it looks like a non event. Go with flurries and maybe some scattered snow showers for Sunday morning...most likely scenario. Vortmax is not as sharp/potent as it was yesterday on the 12z euro. Its more rounded...so we lose the inverted trough feature. Only left with a bit of instability in the mid-levels which means some flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 I'm not really worried about the track right now as we know that will shift a bunch run to run. My thing against this is that we not only need a favorable track of the low, but to get accumulating snow on the coast youre gonna need to phase in the arctic jet. I dont see it happening right now. I'd say we end up somewhere from a rain coast/snow well inland like a 00z euro-esque scenario or the northern stream crushes southern wave and it scoots out to sea more like progressive gfs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 It's November 21st. Odds of snow in sne remain low on general principal for another 2-3 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 It's November 21st. Odds of snow in sne remain low on general principal for another 2-3 weeks. We need an auto-bot to just post this every 3-4 hours for the next two weeks. Seems to come up several times a day, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2013 Author Share Posted November 21, 2013 If you want to get a better looking snow threat, we'd need something to happen like the ensembles were showing a couple days ago....they had the little clipper system moving through Tuesday night and Wednesday morning and then behind it, a bit of reinforcement of cold air out in front of the main system....note the high position as the storm is approching from the south. On more recent runs the past 24 hours, we've had the southern system speed up and try and ride the coattails of the clipper system....but that is bad since it doesn't allow us to reset the airmass after the warm air advection from the clipper and it also keeps the ageostrophic flow from coming out of the north. Here's the euro from last night (and it looks pretty similar at 12z today at 132 hours: Note that our nice high pressure on the ensembles from earlier this week is still back over west-central Canada and the storm is faster down south trying to run up underneath the clipper.....just a bad setup all around for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Typical impatience in early season...people grasp to 6-8 day events, and then by mid winter, the weenieism dies down a little for events that far out (but not totally of course) what would you us rather do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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