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November weather dicsussion


ORH_wxman

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In the FWIW category... 21 of 51 Euro Ens members have >2" of snow for BDL with the Wednesday/Thursday event next week. 

 

Ensemble mean snow at BDL is just shy of 4". 

 

 

Yeah it shows how the mean can be a bit deceptive without that additional info...it shows something a bit too warm like the OP (maybe not quite as warm) in the mean...but rather than be tightly clustered of near 0-2" for BDL snow...there's a lot of spread.

 

 

I think we know its going to take some luck to get it to pan out...but its far from being declared a no-go yet. Probably will need another 24-36 hours at the minimum to rule out a shovelable event.

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Yeah it shows how the mean can be a bit deceptive without that additional info...it shows something a bit too warm like the OP (maybe not quite as warm) in the mean...but rather than be tightly clustered of near 0-2" for BDL snow...there's a lot of spread.

 

 

I think we know its going to take some luck to get it to pan out...but its far from being declared a no-go yet. Probably will need another 24-36 hours at the minimum to rule out a shovelable event.

 

Yup. A lot of the ensembles with snow are actually fairly decent hits. That said there are far more "no snow" than "snow" solutions in the ensembles so that's all lost if you go strictly by the 3.8" mean snow on the ensembles. 

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Sweet thanks!  I just looked all over the Ewall for those, too.  

 

Well everything from a bomb over ALB to passing over Bermuda seems to be in play still, lol.   Definitely a couple members skewing the mean's westward extent of precip... I was curious how the mean could show 0.5"+ QPF all the way to PIT-ROC area.

 

f156.gif

 

More interesting than I was thinking earliler.  But, I'm not going to get too excited until Sunday's 12z run.  I'll also be getting my ass frozen during Sunday's 12z run.

 

:shiver:

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In the FWIW category... 21 of 51 Euro Ens members have >2" of snow for BDL with the Wednesday/Thursday event next week.

Ensemble mean snow at BDL is just shy of 4".

Good luck trying to put a forecast together out of that...Well folks it could be partly sunny, a plowable snowfall or a soaking rain, chance of flurries or a shower, winds could be out of the north, or maybe the south, likely turning colder the next day.
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Good luck trying to put a forecast together out of that...Well folks it could be partly sunny, a plowable snowfall or a soaking rain, chance of flurries or a shower, winds could be out of the north, or maybe the south, likely turning colder the next day.

 

I am in tomorrow PM and Sunday PM for weather. At least the weather story will be dominated by cold in the beginning. 

 

Since it may be a Wed or Thu event on Thanksgiving week it would be exceptionally high impact if it were to occur. Ugh. 

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I wonder if there's a way to look at the entire period of record for multiple sites lumped into one first order climo station. The "Hartford Area" records go back to 1905 but include a bunch of different places... downtown Hartford, East Hartford, Windsor Locks, etc.

That would be nice. I haven't looked at this new version yet, but I always wondered if there was a way to view records by ob location.

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Looks like Sunday could gust to 50 or so in the hills and coast with temps 20-25. A day we will all walk around with smiles , high fives, and chest bumps

 

I didn't realize the winds were going to be that strong.  I guess the fires will be blazing.

 

I'll take it with several grains of salt, but I like reading my p/c.

 

Tuesday: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tuesday Night: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Wednesday: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

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I mean the positive versus the past few strong fronts is that greatest isallobaric forcing pushes right through SNE.

 

 

A little Bufkit ensemble for PVD showing Sunday's range of possibilities right now. NAM definitely more bearish at the moment, but kind of at the tail end of its range. Taking the average of all the momentum transfers still puts it in the 40-45 mph neighborhood.

post-44-0-56749800-1385086148_thumb.png

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A little Bufkit ensemble for PVD showing Sunday's range of possibilities right now. NAM definitely more bearish at the moment, but kind of at the tail end of its range. Taking the average of all the momentum transfers still puts it in the 40-45 mph neighborhood.

attachicon.gif11-21-2013 9-08-43 PM.png

One of the more impressive Arctic invasions in years climo wise and wind wise. Absolute freight train jet engine howl.
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One of the more impressive Arctic invasions in years climo wise and wind wise. Absolute freight train jet engine howl.

 

I mean you must be loving it.

 

Seriously though, if the NAEFS has a clue a one in 10 year event for this time of year is pretty awesome. Just goes to show you, enjoy it because all Novembers are not like this.

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A little Bufkit ensemble for PVD showing Sunday's range of possibilities right now. NAM definitely more bearish at the moment, but kind of at the tail end of its range. Taking the average of all the momentum transfers still puts it in the 40-45 mph neighborhood.

11-21-2013 9-08-43 PM.png

Cool how'd you generate that!

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Folks, I haven't said this for awhile...it's coming!!!

 

I really can't bring myself to giving you a weenie, Jerry.  But I almost did.  :)

 

Having those strong winds and chilly temps that make you shiver just getting wood from the deck is one of the great things about winter.  Of course, having it blowing freshly fallen snow is even better.  On the serious side, I do find myself thinking of those without homes on such nights.

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Impressive... But short duration and no snow make it awfully boring imo.

Hopefully some flakes will fly Sunday.

More interesting but OT is the event setting up in the SW to Southern plains. Arctic cold on the move. OKC today went from mid 60's to 40f in a cpl hours and W OK was gusting ova 50 in a few spots. Denver was 12 degrees at 5pm.

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