CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 The PNA is kind of weird...it's impact seems to be minimized for us in Dec/Feb/Mar but is larger in January and also in latter October and early November. Its a noticeable difference in correlation to our temps. Regardless, still no sign of a death vortex forming over the EPO region this month, which has to be a good thing. The PV up into the stratosphere is having trouble cooling as much as guidance wanted it to last week. I guess if there is any good news, we should be laying good snow across Canada to set the stage. Always good to have the source region covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 Having a cold, wrapped up PV in the stratosphere has been correlated to a higher tropospheric PV as well. PV meaning polar vortex. If you can have some sort of warming in the stratosphere, you'll disturb this vortex through a variety of ways, but the basic point is that it helps prevent a +AO from being prevalent. Ah ok. Thanks for the reply Scott. Yall do a great job explaining things in this forum. Also we had a remarkable lo Saturday morning of 14 degrees. That is impressive for winter standards down here much less the end of October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 Ah ok. Thanks for the reply Scott. Yall do a great job explaining things in this forum. Also we had a remarkable lo Saturday morning of 14 degrees. That is impressive for winter standards down here much less the end of October. Wow. That's cold. 3500' will do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 Wow. That's cold. 3500' will do that. Ya it helps out a lot. We have some poster that live at 4100 feet and one that lives at 6100 feet in the Plott Balsams. Pretty beautiful country we live in down here. Yall have some beautiful country up there to and some pretty amazing micro climates around that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 Ya it helps out a lot. We have some poster that live at 4100 feet and one that lives at 6100 feet in the Plott Balsams. Pretty beautiful country we live in down here. Yall have some beautiful country up there to and some pretty amazing micro climates around that area. I've always been curious about the weather in the highlands of NC. What's your average snowfall/yr? I would think your area and higher up probably does better on average than the majority of the DCA-NYC-BOS I-95 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 I've always been curious about the weather in the highlands of NC. What's your average snowfall/yr? I would think your area and higher up probably does better on average than the majority of the DCA-NYC-BOS I-95 corridor. The Boone coop averaged 39.8" per year at 3300 feet back when it was active. The nearby Banner Elk coop at 3600 feet is still active and averages 41" per year. Grandfather Mountain at 5300 feet averages 55" per year on their coop site. I'm not 100% sure how reliable these coops are...but the Boone one when it was active appears to have kept very good snowfall data, so judging the others off that one, it appears the numbers match up with elevation change. I wouldn't be surprised if a place like Grandfather Mountain got a bit more though...or nearby peaks that might be further WNW to take advantage of upslope a little better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 The Boone coop averaged 39.8" per year at 3300 feet back when it was active. The nearby Banner Elk coop at 3600 feet is still active and averages 41" per year. Grandfather Mountain at 5300 feet averages 55" per year on their coop site. I'm not 100% sure how reliable these coops are...but the Boone one when it was active appears to have kept very good snowfall data, so judging the others off that one, it appears the numbers match up with elevation change. I wouldn't be surprised if a place like Grandfather Mountain got a bit more though...or nearby peaks that might be further WNW to take advantage of upslope a little better. Those NC sites compare well for avg snowfall with places in the Jersey Highlands, though I'd guess the high-elev mt sites would hold snowpack better than NNJ locations at 700-1,000 ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 Well, GFS has a lot of wet trick-or-treaters, particularly in GC ftl. On the plus side, several systems providing a break to the dry spell in the coming weeks per GFS. 51.0/34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 The Boone coop averaged 39.8" per year at 3300 feet back when it was active. The nearby Banner Elk coop at 3600 feet is still active and averages 41" per year. We were up at Sugar Mountain, right near Banner Elk, in summer 2012 during the heat wave in the southeast. While the temps at 600 ft were at 100F, at the 4700 ft cabin we were staying in, the high temp broke 70F one day. If I had to live in the southeast, I know where I would want to have a house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 Well, GFS has a lot of wet trick-or-treaters, particularly in GC ftl. On the plus side, several systems providing a break to the dry spell in the coming weeks per GFS. 51.0/34 Yup. But Euro is slower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 Yup. But Euro is slower I thought the GFS had slowed things down on the 00z run from it's prior aggressiveness, but it now looks like it's coming in even earlier on the 12z. I'm confused....or maybe the GFS is confused. 49.9/31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 BOX has tempered it's enthusiasm for tonight--at least for GC. What had earlier been near 20 has now been revised to "mid-20's". Pretty meh. 47.7/28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 BOX has tempered it's enthusiasm for tonight--at least for GC. What had earlier been near 20 has now been revised to "mid-20's". Pretty meh. 47.7/28 Still bn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 6 straight below normal at ORH Still +2.3 for the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 Drop out of awareness for a couple days and come back to a warm pattern ? Interesting... Wasn't what I was expecting. I seem to recall a few chirps from tweets posted here and there re expectations for tastes of winter in the first half of November. After looking things over I am beginning to think that is less likely. I am in fact beginning to acquiesce to the notion of a southeast ridge anomaly. I suppose it doesn't have to mean warmth at our latitude; can have buckles in Canada wedge that drill cold air into New England -- those scenarios are less predictable at this sort of time range (Discussing circa Novie 3 - 12) The baser teleconnection spread is warm, though, for much of eastern N/A. AO/NAO are around +1SD, and the PNA is descending negative through the 10th of next months. Those two converge a southeast ridge anomaly, unarguably. I knew the polar fields indices were flagging this, last week, but at the time the MJO was intensifying in late Phase 8, and there were two doses of TC latent heat running up into an already AB phased north Pac. This would/should create a strengthening -EPO. There are some subtle vestiges in the operational means through D10 for blocking in the NW Terr/Alaska, but it is really pretty weak compared to the dominating -PNA look to the flow that has evolved in the runs/means. I find my self having to nod to a warming signal here -- just not certain how far N it gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 BOX has tempered it's enthusiasm for tonight--at least for GC. What had earlier been near 20 has now been revised to "mid-20's". Pretty meh. 47.7/28 Nice gradient setting up right now behind the front and in front of it... It is mid-30s up here already at 6pm and clearing skies... the bottom is about to drop out. Forecast low is 19F here on the BTV map. They have SLK at 8F tonight, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 Drop out of awareness for a couple days and come back to a warm pattern ? Interesting... Wasn't what I was expecting. I seem to recall a few chirps from tweets posted here and there re expectations for tastes of winter in the first half of November. After looking things over I am beginning to think that is less likely. I am in fact beginning to acquiesce to the notion of a southeast ridge anomaly. I suppose it doesn't have to mean warmth at our latitude; can have buckles in Canada wedge that drill cold air into New England -- those scenarios are less predictable at this sort of time range (Discussing circa Novie 3 - 12) The baser teleconnection spread is warm, though, for much of eastern N/A. AO/NAO are around +1SD, and the PNA is descending negative through the 10th of next months. Those two converge a southeast ridge anomaly, unarguably. I knew the polar fields indices were flagging this, last week, but at the time the MJO was intensifying in late Phase 8, and there were two doses of TC latent heat running up into an already AB phased north Pac. This would/should create a strengthening -EPO. There are some subtle vestiges in the operational means through D10 for blocking in the NW Terr/Alaska, but it is really pretty weak compared to the dominating -PNA look to the flow that has evolved in the runs/means. I find my self having to nod to a warming signal here -- just not certain how far N it gets. We've posted about this over ther last couple of days. Trough in the west trending stronger and will probably warm a bit next week again. It literally seems like a yo-yo pattern. cool-warn-cool-warm..etc. That's the vibe I get. Like Will said, if this were December I think it would be a more wintry look. It's a little early to expect the pattern at hand to deliver. That is, Aleutian ridge, -PNA, SE ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 Nice gradient setting up right now behind the front and in front of it... It is mid-30s up here already at 6pm and clearing skies... the bottom is about to drop out. Forecast low is 19F here on the BTV map. They have SLK at 8F tonight, haha. mesomap.jpg I don't think that's a pre/post front phenomenon, Scott. The front had made it into central MA by about 2:00p.m. or so. You're just colder up there. 44.2/30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 We've posted about this over ther last couple of days. Trough in the west trending stronger and will probably warm a bit next week again. It literally seems like a yo-yo pattern. cool-warn-cool-warm..etc. That's the vibe I get. Like Will said, if this were December I think it would be a more wintry look. It's a little early to expect the pattern at hand to deliver. That is, Aleutian ridge, -PNA, SE ridge. Well... we humored 10 days ago about Indian Summer --- seems like it could be a candidate interval for that to happen given the teles. But yeah, per se ... there are cool shots ever 48 to 72 hours there. We'll have to see which version verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 Why can't we get storms like this Garrett McNamara on 60 ft wave in Portugal from monster storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 I really am not seeing a warm pattern looks on average for the seven day period post fropo slightly BN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 Well... we humored 10 days ago about Indian Summer --- seems like it could be a candidate interval for that to happen given the teles. But yeah, per se ... there are cool shots ever 48 to 72 hours there. We'll have to see which version verifies. Plus, we seem to be moving into a wet pattern--or at least a wetter one. Why can't we get storms like this Garrett McNamara on 60 ft wave in Portugal from monster storm Totally cool! Esp in b/w. 44.0/30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 I really am not seeing a warm pattern looks on average for the seven day period post fropo slightly BN Warm or warmer? That's the difference. I could see the first week of Novie avg a little above. But it may be misleading sincewe will warm late this week and then cool off early next week followed by another warmer trend. Maybe it averages a hair below..but the idea is probably not far from normal on either side. The weeklies looked near to slightly below week 3 and 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 Warm or warmer? That's the difference. I could see the first week of Novie avg a little above. But it may be misleading sincewe will warm late this week and then cool off early next week followed by another warmer trend. Maybe it averages a hair below..but the idea is probably not far from normal on either side. The weeklies looked near to slightly below week 3 and 4.yeah agree, hopefully this fropo wakes up the atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 yeah agree, hopefully this fropo wakes up the atmosphere. Well it appears it will finally get more active anyways. I feel like I've been saying that for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 FWIW, here is the mean of the top ten analogs based on the 240 hr forecast of the euro ensemble mean. It does show a trough over the Great Lakes/Midwest though there is a large amount of spread in that region. The flow near the west coast is fairly zonal with some disagreement in that region as well among the analogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 Why can't we get storms like this Garrett McNamara on 60 ft wave in Portugal from monster stormIs this from today? The same surfer rode a 100' wave last year which was also off the coast of Portugal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 Is this from today? The same surfer rode a 100' wave last year which was also off the coast of Portugal.I stand corrected that is Carlos Buerle todayhttp://m.cbsnews.com/storysynopsis.rbml?pageType=sports&url=http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-400_162-57609676/brazilian-surfer-carlos-burle-may-have-set-new-big-wave-record-in-portgual/&catid=57609676 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 FWIW, here is the mean of the top ten analogs based on the 240 hr forecast of the euro ensemble mean. It does show a trough over the Great Lakes/Midwest though there is a large amount of spread in that region. The flow near the west coast is fairly zonal with some disagreement in that region as well among the analogs. ecmAnalog240.png Plus it is the transition season so ..heh, could all be a red herring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 yesNice! I saw earlier that some coastal city in the U.K. gusted to 99 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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