Sundog Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 Not sure but I think most recently 2009 and 2010 ended Oct on very warm notes. Well there goes that idea. I honestly think because there's so many different outcomes that have resulted from so many different fall arrangements that I don't feel anxious nor excited about anything that happens during the fall season. So we'll see what happens I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 actually 2007 featured a cool down late month and into november. it was late September thru mid october that torched That's discouraging but like I just posted I think winter seasonal forecasting is a borderline crap shoot because there's always that exception to the rule that kills a statistically based forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 13, 2013 Share Posted October 13, 2013 6z GFS at 144 hours and 6z GEFS out to 300 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted October 13, 2013 Share Posted October 13, 2013 Are we in a drought yet? The grass is so brown, almost looks 2010-ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 13, 2013 Share Posted October 13, 2013 Next chance of rain will likely come thu/fri with the frontal passage and then again in about a week (next sunday) with a another front anf perhaps stronger system. The ecm (fyiw) is much wetter than the gfs for both. Either way most all guidance has a trough setting up in the east between the 18th and 22nd period and perhaps beyond. Coolest air looks to be centered west of the area. Looks like the ensembles and loger range guidance trying to build a strong ridge out west and continue the trough into the east towards the last week of the month but its way out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 13, 2013 Share Posted October 13, 2013 Nice and fall like today. Has that feel, looking forward to the cooler temps at the end of the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 13, 2013 Share Posted October 13, 2013 There's a system around day 5 that could end up more than what the models show. Gfs shows a weak shortwave/low that gives us some rain but with the NAO likely transitioning, it could be a stronger system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 13, 2013 Share Posted October 13, 2013 Starting next weekend the GFS is quite cool for at least the following week to 10 days. But also keeps it fairly dry. By mid month we'll still be at least +5 so very strong likelihood we end the month at least +2 or +3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 13, 2013 Share Posted October 13, 2013 Very impressive cold period on the 12z GFS 10/20 through 10/30. Should knock departures back quite a bit, down to +3 at maximum, probably +2 at minimum by month's end. I'm at +9.6 for the month IMBY so we've got a ways to go. Getting sunny here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 13, 2013 Share Posted October 13, 2013 Very impressive cold period on the 12z GFS 10/20 through 10/30. Should knock departures back quite a bit, down to +3 at maximum, probably +2 at minimum by month's end. I'm at +9.6 for the month IMBY so we've got a ways to go. Getting sunny here now. Euro is also impressive with it next weekend at 12z. Most places will have a shot at a freeze, its also a prolonged cold shot with the ridge out west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 14, 2013 Share Posted October 14, 2013 00z Globals really going bonkers with the blocking. Things are going to cool down pretty quickly with maybe a coastal storm down the road Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 14, 2013 Share Posted October 14, 2013 00z Globals really going bonkers with the blocking. Things are going to cool down pretty quickly with maybe a coastal storm down the road 6z GFS continues that theme Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 14, 2013 Share Posted October 14, 2013 The colder temperature departures eventually expand east week 2 with the strong -EPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 14, 2013 Share Posted October 14, 2013 TEB has routinely been warmer than EWR since september... what's going on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 14, 2013 Share Posted October 14, 2013 With all that heat in the NW Atlantic, I feel there will be constant resistance from any incoming trough, however it could also provide extra fuel if we ever get a strong coastal to develop. I do wonder what the repercussions will be this winter, if any, over all that heat left in the Atlantic because of this year's lackluster hurricane season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 14, 2013 Share Posted October 14, 2013 Let's pray the CFS v2 progression is wrong, and this is something I fear to be honest. Continues the cold pattern into early/mid November, then the -NAO signal breaks down around the 15th, but the +PNA persists. Cold weather into late November via a favorable Pacific, unfavorable atlantic, and then we lose the NPAC by the end of November with what looks to be a +EPO / +NAO and a nationwide blowtorch by the beginning of December. It's definitely a possibility but of course its accuracy at this range is questionable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted October 14, 2013 Share Posted October 14, 2013 Let's pray the CFS v2 progression is wrong, and this is something I fear to be honest. Continues the cold pattern into early/mid November, then the -NAO signal breaks down around the 15th, but the +PNA persists. Cold weather into late November via a favorable Pacific, unfavorable atlantic, and then we lose the NPAC by the end of November with what looks to be a +EPO / +NAO and a nationwide blowtorch by the beginning of December. It's definitely a possibility but of course its accuracy at this range is questionable. Can you please post the link on where you can view this. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted October 14, 2013 Share Posted October 14, 2013 Last two days finally felt fall like here with high temps of 64 on both days... also first sub 50 degree temp of month this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted October 14, 2013 Share Posted October 14, 2013 ..boy its dry. vía lee goldberg..only 2 out of the last 24 days w/ measurable precip.. october will be the 4th consecutive month w/ below avg. precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueSkiesFading Posted October 14, 2013 Share Posted October 14, 2013 TEB has routinely been warmer than EWR since september... what's going on? I've been noticing this as well since the past summer. It seems to have gotten worse in the past few weeks though. I'm only 4 miles or so from the airport and they have routinely reported temperatures 3-5 degrees warmer than my Davis almost every day. Normally my temps are almost identical. The other night there were some real wacky readings where EWR was at 58, I was at 57, and TEB came in with like 44 degrees. The temp bounced back up 10 or 12 degrees the following hour, but there's definitely some sort of problem with the sensor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 14, 2013 Share Posted October 14, 2013 Seems like any real below normal weather is still about 10 days away. Mid 60s this weekend would be average. I'm looking for 30s at night and mid 50s for highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted October 14, 2013 Share Posted October 14, 2013 Today temps underperformed by me 64 vs 68 forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKweather27 Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 Let's pray the CFS v2 progression is wrong, and this is something I fear to be honest. Continues the cold pattern into early/mid November, then the -NAO signal breaks down around the 15th, but the +PNA persists. Cold weather into late November via a favorable Pacific, unfavorable atlantic, and then we lose the NPAC by the end of November with what looks to be a +EPO / +NAO and a nationwide blowtorch by the beginning of December. It's definitely a possibility but of course its accuracy at this range is questionable.Nothing worst than wasted cold in November Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 Can you please post the link on where you can view this. Thanks! It's off the weatherbell site, not sure if I can post the link here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 Down to 54.9/51 and falling slowly...probably a little colder here as I'm in one of the most residential neighborhoods of Bay Ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 42.3 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 Down to 54.9/51 and falling slowly...probably a little colder here as I'm in one of the most residential neighborhoods of Bay Ridge.I'm not far from you I'm in marine park Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 Another chillier than progged morning by about 7-8 degrees.42.7F low. Warming rapidly though today, 55 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 42.9 this morning in Muttontown, now 52. 0.7 off the low of the month so far, great radational cooling night. KFOK hit 35 this morning I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 This has to be the most boring stretch of weather in many years. We can't even get a rainstorm after the Euro had it locked in for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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