October 2013 Observations & Discussions

[bluewave]

That is one massive -EPO for sure, it's great to see those low anomalies near the Aleutian Islands. The ridging is so massive it extends almost all the way to Greenland. Let's hope this is the pattern we get for the winter. Hopefully the -EPO ridge can help raise the PDO as well.

 

The amount of blocking that we are seeing near Greenland so far this month is probably hinting that some degree Atlantic blocking

will be in play again this winter. All we need is for a few good -EPO intervals to coincide with a -NAO this winter to increase

our snow chances here. Hopefully, some remnant of the Pacific blocking this year carries over into the winter.

My guess is that the NAO will eventually rebound near the end of the month, but will turn out to be a negative

number for the month of October. The good news is that the recent Octobers since 2002 with a -EPO/-NAO

pattern had intervals during the winter both Atlantic and Pacific blocking. The unknown is whether you end up

with less snowy pattern of 2006-2007 and 2012-2013 or much better ones like the others on the list.

 

These are the recent winters following a -EPO/-NAO October:

 

2012-2013

2009-2010

2006-2007

2003-2004

2002-2003

 

 

 

 

[MJO812]

GFS and Euro

 

[IsentropicLift]

The 00z Euro looked very seasonable temperature wise. We might have a chance at lower 30's inland the night of the 25th but the coast should stay around 40 or above. Most days will feature highs in the 50's and 60's. The Euro also had less than 0.50" of rain for the entire run.

[IsentropicLift]

Gfs shows an interesting pattern moving forward.

If you find cold, dry weather interesting.

[jm1220]

The 00z Euro looked very seasonable temperature wise. We might have a chance at lower 30's inland the night of the 25th but the coast should stay around 40 or above. Most days will feature highs in the 50's and 60's. The Euro also had less than 0.50" of rain for the entire run.

Many of us are going to be in a legit drought soon at this rate. The winter will likely change this as we get more stormy then, but we need to start making a dent in the precip deficits.

[IsentropicLift]

Many of us are going to be in a legit drought soon at this rate. The winter will likely change this as we get more stormy then, but we need to start making a dent in the precip deficits.

It amazes me that with all the Pacific ridging we can't seem to get some any storminess into the region. Even today, it was supposed to be overcast yet the sun has been in and out.

[NEXtreme]

It amazes me that with all the Pacific ridging we can't seem to get some any storminess into the region. Even today, it was supposed to be overcast yet the sun has been in and out.

We will make up for it just in time for winter.

[IsentropicLift]

We will make up for it just in time for winter.

The pattern around Halloween needs to be watched closely. The ridge axis is in a more favorable position for deep east coast troughing. The pattern looks progressive though.

[Allsnow]

The euro has night time lows in the 30's next week for everyone outside the urban environment. Also a early lake effect snow threat

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

The euro has night time lows in the 30's next week for everyone outside the urban environment. Also a early lake effect snow threat

Yeah, the GFS and the ECM has the first lows in the 30s since Late May for Mount Vernon, NY.

[BlueSkiesFading]

TEB's temp sensor is all whacked out again reporting 81 degrees at 3PM. Reality is more like 68 degrees.

[Stormlover74]

if we didn't know there was a problem with the teterboro sensor before we sure do now as they're currently reporting 81

[BlueSkiesFading]

if we didn't know there was a problem with the teterboro sensor before we sure do now as they're currently reporting 81

I just posted the same thing lol. Hopefully someone looks into the problem.

[SACRUS]

Todays guidance continues to focus the coldest of the upcomnig cold  from about 10/24 (wed PM/Thu) - the end of the month.  Should see about a good 5 - 7 days of some decent negative departures to end the month with a frotst or freeze a good possibility judging by the latest guidance.  GFS is still dry the next week.  ECM genrally dry but with a deep enough trough there is certainly room for some amplification in the period.  We'll see how guidance progesses and how long the colder air remains into November.  Bottom line the current 3 week warm pattern is about to change next week

[Isotherm]

Todays guidance continues to focus the coldest of the upcomnig cold  from about 10/24 (wed PM/Thu) - the end of the month.  Should see about a good 5 - 7 days of some decent negative departures to end the month with a frotst or freeze a good possibility judging by the latest guidance.  GFS is still dry the next week.  ECM genrally dry but with a deep enough trough there is certainly room for some amplification in the period.  We'll see how guidance progesses and how long the colder air remains into November.  Bottom line the current 3 week warm pattern is about to change next week

 

 

Destructively agree, impressive cold to finish the month with several days of -10 departures likely I think, particularly in the 25th-30th period. We'll see some cooling this weekend with lows back into the 40s, with possibly some 30s as early as Sunday night. But the real cold nights begin Monday night through most of next week. First freezes should occur, which will actually be later than normal for the majority in suburbia. Not sure yet how cold NYC itself gets, though conservatively I'd say low 40s.

 

Beyond next week, looks like the -NAO wants to break down with the -EPO possibly holding its ground at least into the first week of November. So I believe we'll see the cooler than normal temp regime persist for Nov 1st-7th. Early guess is November's generally a normal to slightly below normal month for us. October's torch departures should be cut by 50% at least by the 31st, with finishes likely in the +2 to +3.5 range.

[SACRUS]

Destructively agree, impressive cold to finish the month with several days of -10 departures likely I think, particularly in the 25th-30th period. We'll see some cooling this weekend with lows back into the 40s, with possibly some 30s as early as Sunday night. But the real cold nights begin Monday night through most of next week. First freezes should occur, which will actually be later than normal for the majority in suburbia. Not sure yet how cold NYC itself gets, though conservatively I'd say low 40s.

 

Beyond next week, looks like the -NAO wants to break down with the -EPO possibly holding its ground at least into the first week of November. So I believe we'll see the cooler than normal temp regime persist for Nov 1st-7th. Early guess is November's generally a normal to slightly below normal month for us. October's torch departures should be cut by 50% at least by the 31st, with finishes likely in the +2 to +3.5 range.

 

 

Violently agree with this.  Also like your ideas for November.  I still think we switch from arid to wet at some point soon but think the dryness continues overall the next few weeks.

[bluewave]

Todays guidance continues to focus the coldest of the upcomnig cold  from about 10/24 (wed PM/Thu) - the end of the month.  Should see about a good 5 - 7 days of some decent negative departures to end the month with a frotst or freeze a good possibility judging by the latest guidance.  GFS is still dry the next week.  ECM genrally dry but with a deep enough trough there is certainly room for some amplification in the period.  We'll see how guidance progesses and how long the colder air remains into November.  Bottom line the current 3 week warm pattern is about to change next week

 

 

Destructively agree, impressive cold to finish the month with several days of -10 departures likely I think, particularly in the 25th-30th period. We'll see some cooling this weekend with lows back into the 40s, with possibly some 30s as early as Sunday night. But the real cold nights begin Monday night through most of next week. First freezes should occur, which will actually be later than normal for the majority in suburbia. Not sure yet how cold NYC itself gets, though conservatively I'd say low 40s.

 

Beyond next week, looks like the -NAO wants to break down with the -EPO possibly holding its ground at least into the first week of November. So I believe we'll see the cooler than normal temp regime persist for Nov 1st-7th. Early guess is November's generally a normal to slightly below normal month for us. October's torch departures should be cut by 50% at least by the 31st, with finishes likely in the +2 to +3.5 range.

 

The Euro weeklies are on board with the -EPO possibly lingering into early November as the -NAO fades.

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/update-on-the-next-several-weeks-3/18873021

[Allsnow]

Euro ensembles are cold all the way until Halloween.

[SnoSki14]

Really think we could see a significant event with the NAO expected to rapidly rebound in a few days, maybe something around the (28th-31st). We did get a prolonged coastal like storm the last time the NAO went from negative to positive and even though we largely missed out, there was still a storm nearby. This time the NAO dipped a bit lower and we're further into the fall season with stronger storms in play. 

[Heisy]

I should know this, but does EPO stand for Eastern Pacific Oscillation, and what does it calculate. Thanks.

 

Good to see a nice pattern already setting up, just don't want the dreaded snow in october curse (at least here in (Philly(

[SnoSki14]

Destructively agree, impressive cold to finish the month with several days of -10 departures likely I think, particularly in the 25th-30th period. We'll see some cooling this weekend with lows back into the 40s, with possibly some 30s as early as Sunday night. But the real cold nights begin Monday night through most of next week. First freezes should occur, which will actually be later than normal for the majority in suburbia. Not sure yet how cold NYC itself gets, though conservatively I'd say low 40s.

 

Beyond next week, looks like the -NAO wants to break down with the -EPO possibly holding its ground at least into the first week of November. So I believe we'll see the cooler than normal temp regime persist for Nov 1st-7th. Early guess is November's generally a normal to slightly below normal month for us. October's torch departures should be cut by 50% at least by the 31st, with finishes likely in the +2 to +3.5 range.

 

Maybe one or two days, although keep in mind that our averages are dropping at a steady pace with most averages in the low 60s/low 40s by then so 55-60 highs/upper 30s for lows are not that significant. It will definitely feel much colder compared to how it's been for the past 2+ weeks. I still see many people in shorts and t-shirts during the day, which is understandable given near 70F for highs (mid 70s tomorrow). What's most unusual is the lack of even light jackets in the morning where temps should be in the mid 40s right now, not upper 50s.  

[Isotherm]

Maybe one or two days, although keep in mind that our averages are dropping at a steady pace with most averages in the low 60s/low 40s by then so 55-60 highs/upper 30s for lows are not that significant. It will definitely feel much colder compared to how it's been for the past 2+ weeks. I still see many people in shorts and t-shirts during the day, which is understandable given near 70F for highs (mid 70s tomorrow). What's most unusual is the lack of even light jackets in the morning where temps should be in the mid 40s right now, not upper 50s.  

 

 

Plenty of people in light jackets in the morning, just look outside of the city. It was 45 Monday morning, 43 Tuesday morning, and 47 this morning here. Just about normal on the lows for this time of year. I'm still wearing shorts for sure; my limit for that is generally sub 60.

 

I think we could see at least 2 days with highs in the low 50s given the progged 850's. For example the latest GFS run has Thursday, Friday, and Saturday (24th-26th) with midday 850mb temperatures of around -3c. Translated to the surface that's lower 50s, which would be a -10 on the high for the end of October.

 

The period October 20th-31st should feature at least several days with sub 60F high temperatures, a few of those possibly barely above 50.

[earthlight]

This looks like a legit cold pattern on the medium range ensemble guidance. I think it remains to be seen how the modeling continues to handle the transition of the cold to the surface, though. This isn't a horribly cold airmass coming southward. That being said, the displacement of cold air into the N-Central US looks like with the -EPO ridge developing and now the medium range ensemble guidance hinting at ridging building into Greenland as well. Exactly how this shakes down remains to be seen...but a flip to a colder than normal pattern with big time below normal height anomalies seems increasingly likely by the end of October.

 

[green tube]

The period October 20th-31st should feature at least several days with sub 60F high temperatures, a few of those possibly barely above 50.

 

how about another year of crazy-early accumulating snow?

 

oct 28, 2008.......... 1.5"

oct 29, 2011.......... 3.9"

nov 7, 2012........... 6.5"

[snywx]

Average lows in the Hudson Valley are in the mid-upper 30's in late October.  Some well protected valleys average a bit lower. 

 

Correct... Tonights average low IMBY is 37.

[IsentropicLift]

I guess nobody saw the 00z GFS?

 

[Sundog]

I guess nobody saw the 00z GFS?

 

 

I'm just happy to see rain at all, even if it's in la la range.

[Snow_Miser]

The 0z GFS gives New England a snowfall. Most likely overdone.

[IsentropicLift]

It was gone on the 06z GFS but the 00z Euro did have a storm, just kicked it OTS. We need another blocking regime like last week. This time you're going to be dealing with a much stronger system. Even if we didn't see any precip, the pressure gradiant would produce some awesome winds.

[IsentropicLift]

The 00z GFS also has 850 temps in the -4 to -8 range for Halloween night. Bundle up the kiddies.