AvantHiatus Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 12z Euro is crazy, hard to believe it's possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 12z Euro is crazy, hard to believe it's possible.What does it show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 What does it show? http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2013100712®ion=NATL&var=PRMSL_msl&hour=168 http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2013100712®ion=NATL&var=PRMSL_msl&hour=192 http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2013100712®ion=NATL&var=PRMSL_msl&hour=240 Some areas miss out but hits Coastal LI and NJ very hard. Looks nothing like the GFS. The main aspect is the constant easterly flow, rains for about 5 days because the coastal storm is stationary. Looks warm-core and develops over the gulf stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Decent trough enters the NE US by October 17th on the 12Z ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Just like I thought, 12z Euro hammers the area with heavy rain starting next weekend. Edit: Upon looking closer, the rain sits just offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Today might be the last 70 degree dew point of the year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 The OP Euro has some rain on Friday and then OTS for the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 The OP Euro has some rain on Friday and then OTS for the weekend. North32America_msl_96.gif North32America_msl_144.gif Exactly. It doesn't hammer the area at all. Although the coastal is slow moving, it's too far East to have a major impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 I just renewed by storm vista account for the winter so now I have Euro access. Rain begins at hour 78, light to moderate, continues right through hour 126. Coastal storm late in the week then sits "just" offshore. From hrs 78-126 we get about an inch of rain. It also has over 12" of rain from the coastal which sits maybe two or three hundred miles offshore currently. It also has a few days with upper 70's for highs with 80's closeby before the trough moves in behind the coastal. Then we struggle to get out of the 40's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 I just renewed by storm vista account for the winter so now I have Euro access. Rain begins at hour 78, light to moderate, continues right through hour 126. Coastal storm late in the week then sits "just" offshore. From hrs 78-126 we get about an inch of rain. It also has over 12" of rain from the coastal which sits maybe two or three hundred miles offshore currently. It also has a few days with upper 70's for highs with 80's closeby before the trough moves in behind the coastal. Then we struggle to get out of the 40's. I think its in lala land....it had a torch all this week and now we probably won't get out of the 60s after today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 I think its in lala land....it had a torch all this week and now we probably won't get out of the 60s after today At some point over the past few days, the GFS, Euro and GGEM have all brought the coastal close enough to the region in order to bring periods of rain. It's all going to come down to the exact location of the low when it cuts off. The 12"+ bullseye on the Euro just to the west of the low is an indicator of the heavy rain potentional. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 I don't think the models have any handle on any coastal low situation, I mean just look how the gfs runs have changed. So we will probably deal with clouds, a cool east wind, and some sprinkles with the onshore flow. I don't see any huge signals for a big rain event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 I don't think the models have any handle on any coastal low situation, I mean just look how the gfs runs have changed. So we will probably deal with clouds, a cool east wind, and some sprinkles with the onshore flow. I don't see any huge signals for a big rain event. This is not possible due to the synoptic setup. We are transitioning to a blocked pattern, infact mabye to an extreme extent that the storm is blocked from moving northward. Some area will get decent rains out of this; but the heavier rains may not be as widespread as originally expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 18z GFS wet for Thursday and Friday now Rain totals don't include today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 18z GFS has the coastal low persisting just offshore like the Euro until at least next Wednesday. Somewhat unprecedented to have onshore flow for a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Top 5 sunset of my life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 18z GFS has the coastal low persisting just offshore like the Euro until at least next Wednesday. Somewhat unprecedented to have onshore flow for a week. Pretty amazing how it retrogrades the low SW. It's still sitting offshore on day 9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Top 5 sunset of my life. Must've been a multi color sunset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Pretty amazing how it retrogrades the low SW. It's still sitting offshore on day 9. It's been so inconsistent though, I'll give both the gfs and euro a few runs to figure it out. The blocking is strong no doubt, almost reminiscent of last October minus the hurricane of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 It's been so inconsistent though, I'll give both the gfs and euro a few runs to figure it out. The blocking is strong no doubt, almost reminiscent of last October minus the hurricane of course. Interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 18z GFS has the coastal low persisting just offshore like the Euro until at least next Wednesday. Somewhat unprecedented to have onshore flow for a week. Did you even bother to check the ensemble means for both the GFS and the Euro? Neither of which agree with its Op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Did you even bother to check the ensemble means for both the GFS and the Euro? Neither of which agree with its Op run.Dude, stop it already. They're just saying what the models show, nobody's canceling flights because of our interpretation of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Dude, stop it already. They're just saying what the models show, nobody's canceling flights because of our interpretation of the GFS. Makes no difference to me, but people that want to be taken seriously should conduct themselves as such. It just goes to show that some people in the weather community are more about bs than anything substantial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Did you even bother to check the ensemble means for both the GFS and the Euro? Neither of which agree with its Op run. Ensemble means are not known to have great skill over the OP in the near-term ranges. 18z GEFS look pretty similar to the OP anyhow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 Ensemble means are not known to have great skill over the OP in the near-term ranges. 18z GEFS look pretty similar to the OP anyhow.Lol, we both took the bait. After looking at the GEFS it's pretty obvious that he's trolling. Still possible that the storm stays far enough offshore that it doesn't affect our weather but right now it looks like we'll at least have a couple of dreary days, even if we don't end up with significant rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 Makes no difference to me, but people that want to be taken seriously should conduct themselves as such. It just goes to show that some people in the weather community are more about bs than anything substantial.Would you like to give me a few grand so that I can access the Euro ensembles? You have no clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 Did you even bother to check the ensemble means for both the GFS and the Euro? Neither of which agree with its Op run. There is nothing wrong with his post. He didn't use the 18z GFS to speculate that we were definitely going to get drenched with rain -- he posted an innocuous observation. Don't put words in people's mouths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 Normal October weather for the most part over the next 7 days -- should help to erase some of the extreme positives thus far. Mid/upper 60s by day with 40s at night the next 48 hours, then I could see temps cooler than progged for Thurs/Fri if we do get the hvy pcpn up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 00z NAM shifting west for the end of the week system, keeps it all to our southwest. Also keeps the coastal well offshore, at least through the end of it's run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 Well the end of the week heat is officially canceled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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