Syrmax Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I actually thought Binghamton would of done the WSWatch for us. You guys are the pros but what I am seeing says it could rip for a bit tomorrow night with 1" per rates with a decent east southeast wind. Thinking of the trhuway corridor down the Mohawk. Travel may be tough around here after 9 or so. I just eyeballed the 00Z NAM text extraction and again I'm struggling to find indication of this mid level "warmth". Some decent Omega lifts through PA and ENY/CNY overnight tomorrow. Not sure where the best snow growth is with this feature but NAM puts down some corresponding qpf in that same period, 0.38" in consecutive 6 hr periods (30 and 36 hrs, 0.06" after and 0.09" prior). So that's about 0.91" liquid at KSYR. Not crazy stuff but maybe 3/4-1"/hr rates. Seemed to me that GFS and NAM were showing similar, though not as juicy, last day or so. I'm rusty though. Here's a link to the 00Z NAM text extraction...http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_ksyr.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 FWIW the newest RAP is amped and warm, with 2 inches already having fallen across the southern tier by noon tomorrow. SREF means have also been slowly trending up all day, and now show 10-12 inches by midday on Sunday at BGM, ITH, and SYR, with no individual members below 5.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I am also seeing KBUF at about 0.6" liquid and KALB 1.04" for the storm per 00Z NAM... edit: Also...750 mb temps at KSYR -5.8C/-6.4C at height of storm...KALB flirts with it though, -5.4C/-0.8C. Warmest KBGM gets at those times is -8.0C. So I don't see mix possible anywhere but maybe KALB depending on how system actually develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Here's my two lake-effect chase videos... first one is from Wednesday, second one is from today: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Nice videos. I spotted my old home at the cooling tower, you must have been just North of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 NAM 00Z will drive the coasties nuts as it pushes some warm mid and low level air in down there. All of SNE from Springfield to Boston would eventually changeover or at least mix. May be overdone but it would be climo to see ptype issues down there. Even KORH would see PL. 00Z GFS should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 00Z GFS almost as good as the NAM, big area of 12" in CNY, falling off to 10" by BNG. 8-10 for WNY. RGEM, however, continues to be the coldest and fastest of the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 00Z GFS almost as good as the NAM, big area of 12" in CNY, falling off to 10" by BNG. 8-10 for WNY. Agree. Haven't seen model text on 00Z GFS but looks in line w/ NAM. Ptype not a concern for this forum IMO - other than maybe near KBGM, which could take a cpl inches off total SN accums right near that pocket. Other than that - I would be surprised if most of the area isn't upgraded to WSW by morning package issuances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Agree. Haven't seen model text on 00Z GFS but looks in line w/ NAM. Ptype not a concern for this forum IMO - other than maybe near KBGM, which could take a cpl inches off total SN accums right near that pocket. Other than that - I would be surprised if most of the area isn't upgraded to WSW by morning package issuances. Agreed. Especially areas north of the PA/NY state line. NWS Binghamton is really risking a major bust if they stick with their 4-6. I'm not expecting a big blob of 12+ but a general zone of 6-10 across CNY with 12 inch jackpots in favored areas like Cortland seems like a safe call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 what a start to winter this fall, in the north country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Here's my two lake-effect chase videos... first one is from Wednesday, second one is from today: Incredible videos, thanks for posting. Please continue to post your next chases! Love the Amish with the horse and buggie and nice job helping that guy who crashed into the pole. I'm sure you've seen enough car accidents for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Already up 1",started snowing around 2:40..Ratio has to be close to 30:1 right now because the outside temp is 13F i hope nws busts with that 4-8" call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Yeah, our area via the NAM is solidly into 1" of qpf.....even shaving off 40% gets us .6....and at 12 or so to 1 we are looking at a solid 7-8". If GFS trends a bit wetter than it has, I'd look for the NWS offices to entertain upgrading to WSW's for CNY counties. Otherwise, it's probably the NAM just being the NAM 18 hours before a storm!' We've seen this dog and pony show before....like clockwork!!! So the NAM actually was a trend leader 18 hours before an event! The quicker transfer/stronger/further west secondary that is now being depicted by most models, diminishes some of my concerns for any mixing for C/WNY...and the LES behind this (for Sun. night) is beginning to intrigue me (for areas close to MBY). By Monday afternoon, some areas of CNY (w/LES) will have over 20"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Surprised to see NWS only 4-casting 2-3" by nightfall for WNY. Already closing in on 2" here and snow is falling steady with good flake size. Over performer or just a quick burst this morning before weaker snow/poor snow growth kicks in for rest of the day....? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steffen Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Surprised to see NWS only 4-casting 2-3" by nightfall for WNY. Already closing in on 2" here and snow is falling steady with good flake size. Over performer or just a quick burst this morning before weaker snow/poor snow growth kicks in for rest of the day....? yeah, same here. already got another 2 inches this morning. We're only supposed to get 2-3 by tonight. Doesn't sound right to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Here's my two lake-effect chase videos... first one is from Wednesday, second one is from today: Really nice work Mark! Brings back memories of when I first got my driver's license....would sneak my Dad's truck out late at night and head to the 3"/hr. band!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steffen Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 snow is picking up here now. Falling moderately with 3" already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 WSW's extended west to Genesee County. Looks like NWS bumped up accum's some across the board, highest amounts from Roch east as expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Almost 4" here,main show arrives later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 About 1/2" of snow so far... its been pretty light here so far though. Big story early on is the temperatures, still stuck at 11.8 degrees in ALB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 About 1/2" of snow so far... its been pretty light here so far though. Big story early on is the temperatures, still stuck at 11.8 degrees in ALB. Yeah should lead to some pretty decent ratios with temps as they are. several hours of strong vv's punching through the DGZ tonight will also help.. before we dry out above 700 hPa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Polarbear Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I dont have anything to base this on other than a hunch, but i feel as though we might be getting treated to a bit of an over achiever in the next 10-12 hrs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Maybe 1" around SYR...cold and breeze is worse than the snow by far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leelee Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Around 3" of fluff so far. I love this light, fluffy snow. KBUF sticking with the advisory for the far west counties. I don't see how we stay below 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Keep in mind you need 9" in 24 hours, or 7" in 12 hours to verify a warning, I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Lake Erie is down to 35 degrees, which is 4 degrees below normal for the date. It's only been colder on December 14th 3 times, 1937, 1976, and 1995. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 we are up to 5.5" on the west side..Close to 4" at my parents in Lancaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Redfield for the win. Some phenomenal snow totals this week. 000NOUS41 KBUF 142041PNSBUFNYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-150841-PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTSPOTTER REPORTSNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY341 PM EST SAT DEC 14 2013BELOW ARE SOME FOUR DAY STORM TOTALS FOR THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENTTHAT BEGAN ON TUESDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW CAN PRODUCE EXTREMELYVARIABLE SNOW AMOUNTS FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION WITH SOME TOWNSRECEIVING A TRACE AND NEIGHBORING TOWNS RECEIVING FEET OF SNOW. HEREARE SOME RECENT AMOUNTS OF THIS MULTI-DAY EVENT. THIS DATA ISPRELIMINARY AND MAY BE UPDATED OR MODIFIED AS THE NATIONAL WEATHERSERVICE GATHERS MORE DATA ON THIS IMPRESSIVE LAKE EFFECT EVENT.********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTSSNOWFALL OF/INCHES/ MEASUREMENTNEW YORK...ALLEGANY COUNTY...RUSHFORD 10.7 700 AM 12/14 CO-OP OBSERVERALFRED 2.6 700 AM 12/14 CO-OP OBSERVER...CATTARAUGUS COUNTY...WEST VALLEY 32.0 700 AM 12/14 COCORAHSLITTLE VALLEY 13.5 700 AM 12/14 CO-OP OBSERVERFRANKLINVILLE 10.5 700 AM 12/14 CO-OP OBSERVER5 N ALLEGANY 6.1 700 AM 12/14 COCORAHSSALAMANCA 3.0 700 AM 12/14 CO-OP OBSERVER...CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY...4 SSW RIPLEY 11.4 700 AM 12/14 COCORAHSJAMESTOWN 5.5 700 AM 12/14 CO-OP OBSERVER...ERIE COUNTY...COLDEN 52.3 305 PM 12/14 TRAINED SPOTTERGLENWOOD 45.0 700 AM 12/14 COCORAHSBOSTON 37.0 700 AM 12/14 COCORAHSSPRINGVILLE 36.0 700 AM 12/14 CO-OP OBSERVERWALES CENTER 36.0 700 AM 12/14 CO-OP OBSERVER1 N ORCHARD PARK 15.5 700 AM 12/14 COCORAHSKENMORE 9.1 700 AM 12/14 COCORAHSNY BUFFALO INTL ARPT 9.0 700 AM 12/14 ASOS3 WSW ELMA 8.1 700 AM 12/14 COCORAHS2 NW WEST SENECA 2.3 700 AM 12/14 COCORAHS...GENESEE COUNTY...STAFFORD 15.6 700 AM 12/14 NWS EMPLOYEEBATAVIA 14.5 700 AM 12/14 COCORAHS...LEWIS COUNTY...CONSTABLEVILLE 65.0 700 AM 12/14 COCORAHSHIGHMARKET 56.2 700 AM 12/14 CO-OP OBSERVERLOWVILLE 33.0 700 AM 12/14 CO-OP OBSERVER5 SSW HARRISVILLE 18.4 700 AM 12/14 COCORAHSCROGHAN 17.7 700 AM 12/14 COCORAHS...LIVINGSTON COUNTY...AVON 3.3 700 AM 12/14 CO-OP OBSERVER...MONROE COUNTY...NORTH CHILI 9.3 700 AM 12/14 COCORAHS6 ESE ROCHESTER 7.5 700 AM 12/14 COCORAHS...NIAGARA COUNTY...5 NNE AMHERST 6.3 700 AM 12/14 COCORAHS1 NNE NORTH TONAWAND 5.0 700 AM 12/14 COCORAHS1 NE LOCKPORT 4.0 700 AM 12/14 COCORAHS...ONTARIO COUNTY...GENEVA 3.7 700 AM 12/14 CO-OP OBSERVER...OSWEGO COUNTY...REDFIELD 66.0 100 PM 12/13 OWLESMINETTO 6.9 700 AM 12/14 COCORAHS...WAYNE COUNTY...1 NW WILLIAMSON 9.5 700 AM 12/14 COCORAHS...WYOMING COUNTY...WARSAW 46.0 700 AM 12/14 TRAINED SPOTTER3 E VARYSBURG 42.2 700 AM 12/14 COCORAHSSILVER SPRINGS 26.4 700 AM 12/14 CO-OP OBSERVER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Lake Erie is down to 35 degrees, which is 4 degrees below normal for the date. It's only been colder on December 14th 3 times, 1937, 1976, and 1995. There was a big northtowns LES event in December 1937,over four feet of snow fell in two day period! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 we are up to 5.5" on the west side..Close to 4" at my parents in Lancaster. When did you start measuring for this storm? Today? Last night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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