Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Heading into Fall

[ayuud11]

[cny rider]

Sounds like tine to build an ark.

[donsutherland1]

Impressive cold.  Haven't really focused much on that with the snow over the last several days.  Rochester broke a record low today:

 

000

SXUS71 KBUF 171202

RERROC

RECORD EVENT REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY

700 AM EDT TUE DEC 17 2013

...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT ROCHESTER NY THIS MORNING...

THE TEMPERATURE FELL TO -4 DEGREES AT THE ROCHESTER AIRPORT EARLY

THIS MORNING. THIS ESTABLISHES A NEW RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE FOR

DECEMBER 17TH. THE PREVIOUS RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE WAS -3 DEGREES

SET BACK IN 1919.

$

DPK

The subzero low was also Rochester's first below zero reading since February 11, 2011 when the temperature also fell to -4°.

[scottmartin49]

Thanks, Don. Been thinking that this was turning into a fairly significant cold snap....

[kulaginman]

Scary icing potential in the St. Lawrence Valley this upcoming weekend. The latest Euro is putting down close to 2" QPF with north northeasterly surface winds keeping temperatures in the 20s while h85 temps soar well above 0C. It's a bit more of a crapshoot for the counties bordering Lake Ontario - my gut tells me they end up with a 33/34F rain, but it's way too early to know for sure and it will really come down to the strength/position of the high over Canada...as well as the strength of any individual wave of low pressure that ripples along the surface front, which will determine the magnitude of the ageostrophic wind.

 

Interesting that the CIPS analog product is flagging January '98 as a possible match for this weekend. It's scary for me to think this now, but some of the younger guys/gals who post on here probably don't remember that event - in terms of the statistical recurrence interval, I believe I read somewhere that January '98 is something like a 500-year event. Up to 4" of ice accumulated in the SLV which pretty much decimated the entire power grid, and it took over a month to restore in some remote areas. The flooding in the Black River Valley/Watertown area was pretty extreme, as well.

 

In Western NY the icing potential is probably on a low side right now, unless things trend south in the days ahead...but there could be major concerns from a hydro perspective and this is the type of scenario that can cause roofs to collapse as the enormous snowpack becomes saturated with (according to the Euro) 2-3" of rain.

 

So maybe it isn't snow this time around (barring any LES potential when the cold air returns next week) but I always do seem to bring interesting wx, if nothing else!

[Buffalo Bumble]

Scary icing potential in the St. Lawrence Valley this upcoming weekend. The latest Euro is putting down close to 2" QPF with north northeasterly surface winds keeping temperatures in the 20s while h85 temps soar well above 0C. It's a bit more of a crapshoot for the counties bordering Lake Ontario - my gut tells me they end up with a 33/34F rain, but it's way too early to know for sure and it will really come down to the strength/position of the high over Canada...as well as the strength of any individual wave of low pressure that ripples along the surface front, which will determine the magnitude of the ageostrophic wind.

 

Interesting that the CIPS analog product is flagging January '98 as a possible match for this weekend. It's scary for me to think this now, but some of the younger guys/gals who post on here probably don't remember that event - in terms of the statistical recurrence interval, I believe I read somewhere that January '98 is something like a 500-year event. Up to 4" of ice accumulated in the SLV which pretty much decimated the entire power grid, and it took over a month to restore in some remote areas. The flooding in the Black River Valley/Watertown area was pretty extreme, as well.

 

In Western NY the icing potential is probably on a low side right now, unless things trend south in the days ahead...but there could be major concerns from a hydro perspective and this is the type of scenario that can cause roofs to collapse as the enormous snowpack becomes saturated with (according to the Euro) 2-3" of rain.

 

So maybe it isn't snow this time around (barring any LES potential when the cold air returns next week) but I always do seem to bring interesting wx, if nothing else!

January 98 was insane.  Family has a cottage on Chaumont Bay (north of Sacketts Harbor) - I remember driving up there a couple days after the event and it looked like a war zone.  Kind of looked like the aftermath of the "Buffalo Surprise" Oct lake effect storm, but on a much larger scale.  Tree damage is still visible to this day in the area.  

[kulaginman]

January 98 was insane.  Family has a cottage on Chaumont Bay (north of Sacketts Harbor) - I remember driving up there a couple days after the event and it looked like a war zone.  Kind of looked like the aftermath of the "Buffalo Surprise" Oct lake effect storm, but on a much larger scale.  Tree damage is still visible to this day in the area.  

 

I would have to think the damage in the January '98 event was worse in the hardest hit areas than the October '06 event. January '98 didn't just take down trees and power lines, it crumpled huge transmission towers in Quebec like they were made out of paper! Plus, it severely impacted the city of Montreal...a huge population center of nearly 1,000,000 people at the time.

 

I'm fascinated by ice storms, and it's a weather phenomenon that always seems to elude me (which is probably a good thing). I've always considered the January '98 event to be one of the most meteorologically intriguing events of my lifetime.

[OSUmetstud]

I would have to think the damage in the January '98 event was worse in the hardest hit areas than the October '06 event. January '98 didn't just take down trees and power lines, it crumpled huge transmission towers in Quebec like they were made out of paper! Plus, it severely impacted the city of Montreal...a huge population center of nearly 1,000,000 people at the time.

 

I'm fascinated by ice storms, and it's a weather phenomenon that always seems to elude me (which is probably a good thing). I've always considered the January '98 event to be one of the most meteorologically intriguing events of my lifetime.

One thing I have noticed that gives me pause to think huge ice is that the Canadian high pressure area seems a bit muddled and strung out on both the GFS and the ECMWF.  I believe this is due to the northern stream digging in the Canadian praries from the upstream ridge.  This would tend to lower pressures downstream.  The northern stream is not quite as cut-off from the southern cut-off as you might "want it."

 

[OSUmetstud]

Btw, the second image is of one of BUF's huge icestorms, March 3-4, 1991.

[OSUmetstud]

Of course these caveats may not matter as much for the St. Lawrence River Valley which ices quite easily compared to WNY and even CNY...which need stronger synoptic influences to generate an ice storm.

[kulaginman]

Of course these caveats may not matter as much for the St. Lawrence River Valley which ices quite easily compared to WNY and even CNY...which need stronger synoptic influences to generate an ice storm.

 

Yep, low level cold air really likes to get wedged into the St. Lawrence Valley - it's a pretty good location for ice (if there is such a thing).

 

I was actually looking at the NARR maps for the 1991 event earlier this evening. For some reason, I seem to remember that being a bigger deal for ROC than it was for BUF? I know BUF had a nasty ice storm in 1976. Wish the NARR maps went back that far...

[kulaginman]

Missing thickness lines on this map, but here's another synoptic setup that produced big ice in Western NY (though it was a tremendously rare April event):

 

 

Nick may be onto something. Both the 1991 and 2003 events featured strong 1028+ closed contour high pressure systems near the James Bay, whereas the high pressure system this weekend is more of an elongated ridge with lower surface pressures. I'd also like to see a deep cold antecedent airmass in place prior to the arrival of the precipitation; in this weekend's case we're working with a very marginal airmass to begin with, and relying on colder drier air to advect in during the event. Not saying it can't happen, but there are a lot of things arguing against ice right now.

 

Saint Lawrence Valley, different story...

[OSUmetstud]

Yep, low level cold air really likes to get wedged into the St. Lawrence Valley - it's a pretty good location for ice (if there is such a thing).

 

I was actually looking at the NARR maps for the 1991 event earlier this evening. For some reason, I seem to remember that being a bigger deal for ROC than it was for BUF? I know BUF had a nasty ice storm in 1976. Wish the NARR maps went back that far...

It was worse in ROC than in BUF, but from what I understand it was bad here, too.  I was a bit too young to remember in much detail.  ROC has an easier time icing than BUF does.  

[OSUmetstud]

april 2003 caused ice in BUF....but it was much worse for locations near Lake Ontario.  It was a year before I went to SUNY Oswego, but I've seen pics and I saw the tree damage and it was impressive.  

[Syrmax]

Scary icing potential in the St. Lawrence Valley this upcoming weekend. The latest Euro is putting down close to 2" QPF with north northeasterly surface winds keeping temperatures in the 20s while h85 temps soar well above 0C. It's a bit more of a crapshoot for the counties bordering Lake Ontario - my gut tells me they end up with a 33/34F rain, but it's way too early to know for sure and it will really come down to the strength/position of the high over Canada...as well as the strength of any individual wave of low pressure that ripples along the surface front, which will determine the magnitude of the ageostrophic wind.

 

Interesting that the CIPS analog product is flagging January '98 as a possible match for this weekend. It's scary for me to think this now, but some of the younger guys/gals who post on here probably don't remember that event - in terms of the statistical recurrence interval, I believe I read somewhere that January '98 is something like a 500-year event. Up to 4" of ice accumulated in the SLV which pretty much decimated the entire power grid, and it took over a month to restore in some remote areas. The flooding in the Black River Valley/Watertown area was pretty extreme, as well.

 

In Western NY the icing potential is probably on a low side right now, unless things trend south in the days ahead...but there could be major concerns from a hydro perspective and this is the type of scenario that can cause roofs to collapse as the enormous snowpack becomes saturated with (according to the Euro) 2-3" of rain.

 

So maybe it isn't snow this time around (barring any LES potential when the cold air returns next week) but I always do seem to bring interesting wx, if nothing else!

I work in high voltage transmission and well remember '98. Hope to god that doesn't materialize. It had to have been a 1 in 100 year event.

[OSUmetstud]

Missing thickness lines on this map, but here's another synoptic setup that produced big ice in Western NY (though it was a tremendously rare April event):

 

ice_storm_april.PNG

 

Nick may be onto something. Both the 1991 and 2003 events featured strong 1028+ closed contour high pressure systems near the James Bay, whereas the high pressure system this weekend is more of an elongated ridge with lower surface pressures. I'd also like to see a deep cold antecedent airmass in place prior to the arrival of the precipitation; in this weekend's case we're working with a very marginal airmass to begin with, and relying on colder drier air to advect in during the event. Not saying it can't happen, but there are a lot of things arguing against ice right now.

 

Saint Lawrence Valley, different story...

That's why they pay me the big bucks.  Oh wait...nm lol

[ayuud11]

Wasn't there an ice storm in winter of 06-07?

[OSUmetstud]

Wasn't there an ice storm in winter of 06-07?

I can't remember anything major...could it have been maybe a significant 1/2 or 1/3" icing event?

 

Still way out there...but the 00z gfs got colder...looks very icy from BUF northeastward.  

[ayuud11]

I can't remember anything major...could it have been maybe a significant 1/2 or 1/3" icing event?

 

Still way out there...but the 00z gfs got colder...looks very icy from BUF northeastward.  

If i remember correctly it was around those amounts..

[kulaginman]

Wasn't there an ice storm in winter of 06-07?

 

There was an ice storm in the middle of January 2007, and 1/15/07 was the #1 analog on the CIPS product earlier today (January 1998 was #4). It was a bigger deal in New England than it was in Upstate NY from what I can recall.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

It's looking like Toronto might be in for quite an icing event, as per the latest models.

[ayuud11]

Driving on the 33 tonight felt like an ice rink,i saw 6 cars in a ditch coming back from airport   btw we received an inch or so from that LES band.

[tim123]

Growing potential of western ny icestorm

[tim123]

North of thruway and from rochester west

[ayuud11]

 

 

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

A SUBTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD WILL

RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE UNDERLYING WEATHER ACROSS OUR

REGION...AS TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL. WHILE

THIS MAY BE GOOD NEWS TO MANY THAT HAVE BECOME TIRED OF THE COLD AND

SNOW OF THE PAST FEW WEEKS...THE CHANGE WILL LIKELY COME WITH A

PRICE. A COMPLEX SCENARIO WILL DEVELOP WHERE THERE WILL BE THE

POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR ICE STORM...AND/OR SUBSTANTIAL RAINS THAT

COULD LEAD TO FLOODING CONCERNS. EITHER WAY YOU SLICE IT...THIS WILL

BE A DIFFICULT FORECAST PERIOD.

FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT LONGWAVE TROUGH

HAS BEEN LOCKED OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF NORTH AMERICA WHILE

ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGING HAS STRETCHED FROM SIBERIA TO THE GULF OF

ALASKA. THIS HAS KEPT A PERSISTENT CROSS POLAR FLOW IN PLACE OVER

WESTERN CANADA...WITH FREQUENT SHOTS OF ARCTIC AIR MAKING ITS WAY

INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE RESULT HAS BEEN A PROLONGED STRETCH

OF BELOW NORMAL (JAN-LIKE) TEMPERATURES WITH ABUNDANT LAKE SNOWS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED LONGWAVE TROUGH IS NOW FORECAST TO RETROGRADE

ENOUGH TO ALLOW A STRONG SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO BLOSSOM OVER FLORIDA

AND THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL ESTABLISH A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW

OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE WARMTH AND INCREASED MOISTURE

SURGING NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...POSSIBLY

MAKING IT AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHERN NEW YORK.

MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO

ARCH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE LOWER GREAT LAKES

AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA. THEREIN LIES THE QUANDARY FOR OUR FORECAST

AREA AS THE FINAL POSITION OF THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL DETERMINE

WHETHER A GIVEN SITE WILL RECEIVE WET SNOW...SIGNIFICANT ICING...OR

ENOUGH RAIN TO CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES. NOT WORTH GOING INTO DETAILS

OF EACH GUIDANCE PACKAGE FROM THIS RANGE...BUT WILL SAY THAT THE

ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT OF THE BUNCH WITH PLACING SFC

BOUNDARY DIRECTLY OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. WILL DISCOUNT THE NAM

COMPLETELY...WHICH IS THE SOUTHERN OUTLIER.

WHEN WE OPEN THIS PERIOD ON THURSDAY...A WELL ESTABLISHED SOUTHERLY

H925-85 FLOW WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS

WILL GUARANTEE A NOTICEABLY MILDER DAY ACROSS OUR REGION...AS THE

TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO BETWEEN 35 AND 40. MEANWHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT

WILL APPROACH OUR REGION FROM LOWER MICHIGAN AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO.

THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE...BUT THERE WILL BE

VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY DYNAMICS TO GENERATE MUCH PCPN. WILL

USE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT AND CALL ANY PCPN SPRINKLES

OR FLURRIES.

THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHERNMOST ONTARIO THURSDAY NIGHT AS

THE FIRST OF MANY WAVES WILL MAKE ITS WAY UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

THIS WILL KEEP A WARM ADVECTIVE FLOW IN PLACE OVER OUR REGION WITH

SOME LIGHT PCPN BECOMING LIKELY...MAINLY CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY

(IE. THE LAKE BORDERING COUNTIES AND ERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION). WHILE

THE DEEP WARM ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP THE BULK OF ANY PCPN IN LIQUID

FORM...THERE COULD BE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN ACROSS

THE NORTH COUNTRY.

ON FRIDAY...THE FIRST WAVE WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH AND THIS WILL

ENCOURAGE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SAG SOUTH...DIRECTLY OVER OUR

REGION. A SOUTHERLY 40KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL RIDE OVER THIS FRONT

WITH PWAT VALUES CLIMBING TO NEARLY AN INCH (+2 STD) TO GENERATE

SOME LIGHT RAIN (QPF AVG ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH) FOR MOST

AREAS. A LITTLE MIXED PCPN ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH

COUNTRY WHERE H85 TEMPS WILL BE ON THE COLD SIDE OF ZERO C. MAX

TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM 40-45 OVER THE WRN COUNTIES TO THE MID 30S IN

THE THOUSAND ISLANDS REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO USE CAT POPS NEAR THE

LAKES (NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND HIGH LIKELY ELSEWHERE).

FORECAST CONFIDENCE THEN DETERIORATES FROM THIS POINT FORWARD AS THE

TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL WAVES WILL BE DIFFICULT AT BEST FOR THE

VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES. DEPENDING ON YOUR MODEL OF CHOICE...THE

NEXT IN A SERIES OF WAVES COULD THEN MOVE UP ACROSS THE REGION

FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A ROUND OF STEADY PCPN LIKELY (WILL LEAN MORE

TOWARDS THE SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF...WHICH IS THE WETTER OF THE BASE

MODELS). GIVEN THIS SOLUTION...WILL USE A TENTH OF TWO AS THE

FORECAST QPF. AS IF THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE POPS WERE NOT

ENOUGH...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP GRADIENT OVER THE REGION AS TO

THE PCPN TYPE. RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD FALL OVER THE SRN TIER AND FINGER

LAKES REGION...BUT FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW WILL POSSIBLE FROM THE

COUNTIES BORDERING THE SOUTH SHORE OF LK ONTARIO NORTHWARDS TO THE

THOUSAND ISLANDS.

ON SATURDAY...THE FORECAST WAVE FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WILL EXIT

ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO

SETTLE ANOTHER HUNDRED MILES OR SO FURTHER TO THE SOUTH OVER

PENNSYLVANIA SO THAT THE ZERO H850 ISOTHERM COULD BE IN THE VCNTY OF

THE SOUTH SHORE OF LK ONTARIO. THIS WOULD ENCOURAGE MIXED PCPN OVER

A LARGER PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT

THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE PCPN BETWEEN THE PARADE OF WAVES. THE

HIGHEST CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL COME OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER...WHERE THE

SFC-H85 TEMPS WILL BE THE HIGHEST.

SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD MAKE UP FOR THE BRIEF RESPITE IN THE UNSETTLED

CONDITIONS AS THERE IS RELATIVELY STRONG CONSENSUS THAT THE LAST...

MOST ROBUST WAVE ALONG THE FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY NORTH ALONG THE

OHIO VALLEY. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS

SUPPLIED BY AN ANOMALOUSLY POWERFUL (+3 STD) 200KT H25 JET OVER

EASTERN CANADA WILL COMBINE WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND

PWAT VALUES WELL IN EXCESS OF AN INCH TO PRODUCE A HALF TO ONE INCH

OF QPF OVER OUR REGION. THE REAL DANGER WITH THIS SCENARIO IS THAT

SEVERAL GUIDANCE PACKAGES ARE SUGGESTING SUB FREEZING SFC TEMPS THAT

COULD SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT ICING. A LOOK AT SOME OF THE CIPS ANALOGS

SHOW SIMILAR EVENTS...INCLUDING THE JAN 1979 EVENT THAT PRODUCED

WIDESPREAD ICING ACROSS MOST OF NEW YORK STATE. THIS IS A THREAT

THAT WILL BE ADDRESSED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THERE WILL

ALSO BE THE RISK FOR HYDRO CONCERNS...BUT ANY FLOODING CONCERNS

SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY.

 

Any info on that 1979 icestorm?

[BuffaloWeather]

Here is the video of the snow chase. Huge fan of Frank Sinatra, hope you guys are to. Enjoy!

 

 

I caught the thunder snow twice, here is the separate video just for that. We also had some insane wind gusts when the band was drifting south at the tail end of it. Had to be over 40 MPH which caused some insane blowing and drifting.

 

[ayuud11]

Nice video man,use 50/50 diluted white vinegar on that windshield and you will never need to use those wipers again. 

[ayuud11]

North of thruway and from rochester west

yeh latest AFD hinting at it.

[BuffaloWeather]

Nice video man,use 50/50 diluted white vinegar on that windshield and you will never need to use those wipers again. 

 

Haha! I really need to, the wipers are annoying for the first 2 minutes but I slow them down. Its hard to depict on video but if I didn't have them going that fast I wouldn't be able to drive at all. Visibility was like 20 feet.

[kulaginman]

Excellent discussions from NWS BUF recently. I was not aware of an ice storm in January 1979...

 

Anyway, the Euro shifted colder along with the GFS last night...but it is still extremely marginal for icing in western New York. The best chance (as it stands right now) is probably in the hills of Wyoming County where the projected 2m temps dip a tad below 32F, but not until Sunday morning. There is a larger area of near-32F temps that includes many of the northern/eastern suburbs of BUF, but ice has a very difficult time accumulating when temps are right at the 32F mark especially if the days leading up to the event were not particularly cold. For ideal ice storm conditions, I like to see temperatures in the 20s.

 

What is extremely impressive, however, is the temperature gradient projected for Sunday morning. The image below is the Euro at 15z (10AM) Sunday. Note the area of near-32F temps north/east of BUF, while temperatures in the Southern Tier have surged into the 55-60F range!

 

 

Fwiw, I believe the hills of Wyoming County DID experience significant icing in the January 1998 event...