Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    17,511
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Toothache
    Newest Member
    Toothache
    Joined

Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Heading into Fall

lakeeffectkid383

Recommended Posts

OSUmetstud

OSUmetstud

Posted
Posted

The whole area. For the few storms earlier this fall, it was laughable comparing similar areas to the Binghamton map. And they contradict what they say in the discussions.

 

And the point n' clicks are another story. The NWS site can be quite confusing.

well keep in mind they are a bit broad brushed...so the area of heavy les accumulation will be larger and extend farther north and south than what actually occurs.  The amounts were actually underdone for southern erie last night for today.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Replies 1.4k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
OSUmetstud

OSUmetstud

Posted
Posted

Northern extent was from Blasdell north and east across Orchard Park.I have a feeling tomorrows will get well into West Seneca at least possibly even into the Metro. Going to be a close call.

yeah i'd think a few miles farther north than today.  It seems that the meso models do at least want to bring it into central Erie County for a few hours in the evening.  The models last night for today were trending the wrong way for BUF metro...some of the WRF runs from last night only brought the band into far southern Erie County.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites
BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

Posted
Posted

yeah i'd think a few miles farther north than today.  It seems that the meso models do at least want to bring it into central Erie County for a few hours in the evening.  The models last night for today were trending the wrong way for BUF metro...some of the WRF runs from last night only brought the band into far southern Erie County.  

 

Yeah I noticed that as well. Hopefully the same trend doesn't happen tomorrow so some of our northern friends can get in on the LES.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
ayuud11

ayuud11

Posted
Posted

in watertown we have nothing....they are quoting a deluge...laughable! no way way are we going to get the amounts the predtict.....

You guys up there are in the same boat like us,you need a perfect 250 flow off L.ontario to nail the city but you are right I tend to notice the nws puts up warnings for Watertown town area even though their not impacted. I guess it has to do with how NWS classifies which part is northern Jefferson county and which is southern just like how they do it with Erie county..

Link to comment
Share on other sites
BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

Posted
Posted

how much did you get today?  Lackawanna and south Buffalo have been in a bad spot the last two days...we got like 1/2" last night and maybe another 1/4" today lol. '

 

I do have a question for you though. Not sure if you can see the band from earlier today. But it seemed like the northern edge of the band was the strongest with a mile or 2 wide portion dropping 2-3 inches an hour. It hit here but didn't last long. Was that due to converging winds? I saw the winds coming from the W across most of Canada up into Buffalo and SW winds coming up from Cleveland into Erie. Can that convergence lead to a stronger band within a LES snowband?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
OSUmetstud

OSUmetstud

Posted
Posted

I do have a question for you though. Not sure if you can see the band from earlier today. But it seemed like the northern edge of the band was the strongest with a mile or 2 wide portion dropping 2-3 inches an hour. It hit here but didn't last long. Was that due to converging winds? I saw the winds coming from the W across most of Canada up into Buffalo and SW winds coming up from Cleveland into Erie. Can that convergence lead to a stronger band within a LES snowband?

well...extra convergence can enhance the natural band circulation, and also, some bands can be a bit tilted with height...so that one side might be stronger than other.  Sometimes, you'll be under heavy echoes on the radar but the low-level winds are actually blowing the snow away from the edge of the radar band, so it won't be snowing heavily at your location...and vice versa.  On the southern shore of Lake Ontario, you'll see this especially, enhanced frictional and thermal convergence causes the southern edge of the band to be sharp and intense, like a wall, whereas the northern part of the band is a bit more diffuse.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Leelee

Leelee

Posted
Posted

how far north did the band get today?  I worked from 6am to 2pm and I didn't have radar access.  

It was about Lake Avenue where the cutoff was pretty clear. I work at ECC South, and there were a few inches there. Always amazes me how sharp the cutoffs are with LES.

 

From Lackawanna to around the airport are the bare zones. Grass is fully visible here now.

 

The models last night for today were trending the wrong way for BUF metro...some of the WRF runs from last night only brought the band into far southern Erie County.

Unfortunately, the models have trended the wrong way for tomorrow, also. Until 12z runs yesterday, it showed the Metro getting socked and a solid WSW flow for ~6 hours.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

Posted
Posted

It was about Lake Avenue where the cutoff was pretty clear. I work at ECC South, and there were a few inches there. Always amazes me how sharp the cutoffs are with LES.

 

From Lackawanna to around the airport are the bare zones. Grass is fully visible here now.

 

 

 

Unfortunately, the models have trended the wrong way for tomorrow, also. Until 12z runs yesterday, it showed the Metro getting socked and a solid WSW flow for ~6 hours.

 

The 0Z NAM has the band across the metro and the airport so far. Looks like the band is going to go about 10 miles more north in comparison to today. If the rest of the models today follow suite, the NWS will have to issue another LES Watch for Northern Erie as well.

 

nam_namer_024_sim_radar.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites
lakeeffectkid383

lakeeffectkid383

Posted
  • Author
Posted

You work tomorrow? Lets go chasing! We can pick up OSU and Leelee on the way. =) Well we might not have to chase at all tomorrow depending on wind direction. ^_^

Yes I do :/ i wish i could take off and just spend all day chasing the band but I cant. Btw, You ever get those snow tires on your car? If not, shoot me a text message and well set something up. Hopefully I can get outta work and the band will be sitting right over our houses so I don't have to chase at all :)
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ellinwood

Ellinwood

Posted
Posted

Hey all, I'm back after a long day on the road. Will be putting videos up tomorrow (taking a day off from chasing then heading back up on Friday).

I posted some pics to my Twitter account (link below), and I'll link the videos here when they're done.

http://twitter.com/markellinwood

The snow band over-performed even my expectation today, and my expectations were pretty high!

Link to comment
Share on other sites
ayuud11

ayuud11

Posted
Posted

Yes I do :/ i wish i could take off and just spend all day chasing the band but I cant. Btw, You ever get those snow tires on your car? If not, shoot me a text message and well set something up. Hopefully I can get outta work and the band will be sitting right over our houses so I don't have to chase at all :)

Get some nokian hakka's best winter tires I've owned so far.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
lakeeffectkid383

lakeeffectkid383

Posted
  • Author
Posted

0z NAM looks nice! I want fluffy LES

 

NWS point n' click lowered me from 4-6 tomorrow night to 1-3 though lol

Don Pauls updated forecast has the southtowns with 9-12"+ of additional snowfall tomorrow through Friday. Then we have the storm to look forward to on saturday which could give us several more inches of snow. By the end of the weekend Boston/Colden will likely have 4 feet plus on the ground. Should make for some amazing skiing/snowboarding at Kissing Bridge!
Link to comment
Share on other sites
ayuud11

ayuud11

Posted
Posted

Don Pauls updated forecast has the southtowns with 9-12"+ of additional snowfall tomorrow through Friday. Then we have the storm to look forward to on saturday which could give us several more inches of snow. By the end of the weekend Boston/Colden will likely have 4 feet plus on the ground. Should make for some amazing skiing/snowboarding at Kissing Bridge!

Meanwhile the grass is showing here in the city we need at least a coating to cover it up lol.. :lmao:

Link to comment
Share on other sites
BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

Posted
Posted

Don Pauls updated forecast has the southtowns with 9-12"+ of additional snowfall tomorrow through Friday. Then we have the storm to look forward to on saturday which could give us several more inches of snow. By the end of the weekend Boston/Colden will likely have 4 feet plus on the ground. Should make for some amazing skiing/snowboarding at Kissing Bridge!

 

Think I might do some boarding this weekend, absolutely perfect conditions.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
lakeeffectkid383

lakeeffectkid383

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Think I might do some boarding this weekend, absolutely perfect conditions.

do it. For the first time in a while, if I were you Id definitely hit up KB instead of HV. Conditions there this weekend will be epic. Between the snow they had on the ground already (roughly 12" according to them) the 2 feet they got last night and today, the next 1-2 feet likely on top of that by this weekend, and then with the snow machines pumping, they'll prob have a 5 foot base early next week!
Link to comment
Share on other sites
ayuud11

ayuud11

Posted
Posted

Don Paul is calling for 2-4" through Friday in the Metro now, though. Nuts.

Although I think the models WIVB uses are initiated off the GFS, which is not showing much backing to WSW flow.

I like how BUF didn't even bother to update their short term/long term afd for today lol.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

Posted
Posted 




New watches and warnings out, south of highway 90 calling for 4-7, hopefully you guys up north can cash in as well. 



...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 1 PM



EST FRIDAY...



THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT



SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 1 PM EST



FRIDAY. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.



* LOCATIONS...CHAUTAQUA...SOUTHERN ERIE...WYOMING...AND NORTHERN



  PORTIONS OF CATTARAUGUS COUNTY.



* TIMING...LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.



* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES THURSDAY...3 TO 6 INCHES



  THURSDAY NIGHT...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES FRIDAY...LEADING TO STORM



  TOTALS OF 7 TO 14 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.













...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO



1 AM EST FRIDAY...



THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT



SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM



EST FRIDAY.



* LOCATIONS...SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 FROM BUFFALO TO BATAVIA.



* TIMING...THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING.



* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES THURSDAY AND 2 TO 3 INCHES



  THURSDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES IN THE



  MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.







			
		


		

		
			

		
	


	

	





	
Link to comment

	
		
	
	
	

	
	
Share on other sites

	

	


	

	

	




	



					
					
					
				

					

					
					






	

	

	

		

			

				


	
		ayuud11
	

				
				
			

		

		

			

				


ayuud11
			

			

				Posted 
				
			

		

	

	
	

		




	

		

			

				
    
					
					
					
					
					
				

			

			
		


		

			Posted 
			
			
				
				
			
		

	


	

    

	

		
		

			



New watches and warnings out, south of highway 90 calling for 4-7, hopefully you guys up north can cash in as well. ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 1 PMEST FRIDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECTSNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 1 PM ESTFRIDAY. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.* LOCATIONS...CHAUTAQUA...SOUTHERN ERIE...WYOMING...AND NORTHERN  PORTIONS OF CATTARAUGUS COUNTY.* TIMING...LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES THURSDAY...3 TO 6 INCHES  THURSDAY NIGHT...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES FRIDAY...LEADING TO STORM  TOTALS OF 7 TO 14 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.


...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO1 AM EST FRIDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECTSNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AMEST FRIDAY.* LOCATIONS...SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 FROM BUFFALO TO BATAVIA.* TIMING...THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING.* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES THURSDAY AND 2 TO 3 INCHES  THURSDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES IN THE  MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.




Lets hope so..



			
		


		

		
			

		
	


	

	





	
Link to comment

	
		
	
	
	

	
	
Share on other sites

	

	


	

	

	




	



					
					
					
				

					

					
					





					
					
					
				

					

					
					





					
					
					
				
			
			



		

	


	
		

			


	
	

		

	
	
	
		

			
Archived

			

				This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.
			

		

	
	
	
		
	

			
				
					


	


	
		Guest
	


	

		

			 This topic is now closed to further replies. 
		
			
		

	



				
			
		

	

	







	

		
			
				Go to topic listing
			
		
	

	




						


	

		
    
			
				
					
					
  • 

    • 
				
					
					
  • 

    
    
    
        
            Recently Browsing
        
        
          0 members
        
    
    
    
    
        
      
            
                
    • No registered users viewing this page.
      • 
            
        
    
        
    
    

    • 
				
			
		

	


					

					


	

		
		
			
			

		
		
		


	


					

				

			

			
		

      
      

    
        
            

		




            
        
    


		
			
			



	

		×
		


    
	





			
				

					


			

			

			

			
		

	






	

		×
		

			
    

  • Create New...
    •