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5/29 Severe Threat


CT Rain

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Looks like a small almost imperceptible low has developed on the warm front over the SE coastal region --  according to HPC analysis.  Could be why the warm front appears to have halted.   

 

Why do they have the front analyzed so far SW? Definitely seems like it's to the Pike or so, no?

EDIT: Or at least the CT/MA border

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HRRR brings the line right through to the coast. Obviously weakened. Rain maker for all possible. Storms even seem decently strong until they reach western portions of ORH county. Could be a couple severe storms possible over the Berkshires. AWT.

 

I don't see why some heavy rain and lightning do not affect most of us tonight. Just don't expect severe too east of Springfield/Hartford. 

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Those storms may just sort of move ESE and ride the boundary. Maybe I'm crazy, but they should maintain some intensity I think.

HRRR wants to actually intensify the storms for a period of time over extreme western mass and maybe into Springfield. Might be due to the more southerly winds and increased shear?

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HRRR wants to actually intensify the storms for a period of time over extreme western mass and maybe into Springfield. Might be due to the more southerly winds and increased shear?

That is why I was thinking northern Tolland and Windham County might see some storms

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HRRR wants to actually intensify the storms for a period of time over extreme western mass and maybe into Springfield. Might be due to the more southerly winds and increased shear?

 

It probably will use it's own outflow to develop and move ESE. Nice directional shear certainly won't hurt either and you are having some upper level support as a s/w moves SE. It may weaken some..but I think this will probably ride the boundary....not sure if they will be as robust as HRRR shows...but can't disagree with it.

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That is why I was thinking northern Tolland and Windham County might see some storms

Oh for sure they will see some storms. However, how strong? Then an individuals definition of strong has to be taken into consideration.

 

I myself will be heading to my cousins house in Winchendon for the night. I think I won't see much there as I think stronger storms would be seen south and southwest of there.

 

The key here is the shortwave too. That's always awesome to see.

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Just got down to ALB to dog-sit for my folks... pretty cloudy the whole way.  I'm surprised the radar looks semi-decent.  Distant thunder but certainly no sunshine.  Relatively humid but nothing really worth writing home about. 

 

We'll see how the next hour or two pan out.

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