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5/29 Severe Threat


CT Rain

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Yes full sun and dews ripping up quickly thru mid/ upper 60's. lots of turning with height. Atmosphere is primed

 

Damaging times may need a severe weather 5ppd gift.

 

12z GFS really struggles to bring the instability much past Rt 8 in MA/CT. 

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Plenty of clearing taking place in western areas... will it be enough?

 

 

Studying hi res vis imagery... You can see the low level strata is being uncapped by the mid level MCC debris that is rocking off the area.   People in the strata will see the sky rather abruptly brighten over the next 2 hours, west to east, with the sun's orb dimly visible.  These should then break up.  

 

Other areas should see temps rise fairly rapidly out where you are.     

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Probably. Stopping for lunch. Still have several hours, but I can track SE with the storms. Waiting to decide if I go into Hudson Valley or western Mass.

What about the Hudson, NY to Great Barrington corridor? You could stay on Route 23 the whole way or get on Route 71 to 22 to go north/south.

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Skies brightening up here as the mid level clouds have finally moved off...  

 

For western Ma and CT, they are heating nicely.  Noted Danbury CT shot into the mid 70s / 64.   Areas farther east, there's the proverbial bowl filled with strata N of the Pike in Ma.    Still suspect this region erodes out with sun, but there is definitely going to be a limitation as to how unstable it can get if this does not take place within the next hour.  

 

The other thing I'm thinking about... with a west-east oriented warm boundary attempting to bulge N during the day, could there be some training later on

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