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2013 North Atlantic tropical season contest -- provisional contest results

Roger Smith

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

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Posted

 

18/11/3

 

June  1.5/0/0

 

SW Florida, September 3, HIgh end Cat 3.

 

Season unchanged

 

1.25 / 0.5 / 0

 

Edited 6/30/13 - Tweaked numbers down slightly, just not seeing a rip-roaring July.  I may drop seasonal numbers slightly in August.  But staying the course for now.

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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June scoring

______________

 

Your June forecast is worth 8/100 of the monthly half of the contest.

 

These are the scores:

 

boulderr ________________ 8.0

 

Southern Snow___________ 8.0

 

Stebo ___________________8.0

TropicalAnalystwx13 ______ 8.0

Weatherkid#27 __________ 8.0

U Thant ________________ 8.0

wxmx __________________ 8.0

bkviking ________________ 8.0

CandymanColumbusGA ____ 7.9

JonathanBelles___________ 7.6

Ed Lizard _______________ 7.6

Inudaw ________________ 7.6

icebreaker5221 __________ 7.6

wxmeddler ______________ 7.4

Dunkman _______________ 7.0

YanksFan27 _____________ 7.0

Metalicwx366 ____________ 7.0

 

My Weather Today _______ 7.0

Pluffmud _______________ 7.0

Tropical Wx _____________ 7.0

 

Hurricaneman ___________ 7.0

Roger Smith _____________ 7.0

andyhb _________________ 7.0

snowflake22 _____________ 7.0

superstorm93 ____________ 7.0

PSUBlizzicane2007 ________ 7.0

Free_Man _______________ 7.0

 

CONSENSUS ____________ 7.0

 

Ellinwood _______________ 6.9

 

NORMAL '93 to '12 _______ 6.7

 

hudsonvalley21___________6.6

yoda ___________________ 6.1

_______________________________________________________

 

 

Clearly a "no kid left behind" scoring system for June ... :)

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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July entries

______________

 

I will apply the time penalty at quarter-strength on day one as with the temperature contest, due to the timing of the weekend before July 1st. It means that even now, you're only going to lose 43% rather than 61% of your July score, and half those numbers for your seasonal update if you change it or start with one. Check the table to see what your reduced penalty will be if you were late. Also, as with the temperature contest, this modified penalty arrangement will apply to future months regardless of days of the week.

 

Seasonal and July Forecasts, most significant landfall

_________________________________________________

 

 

Forecasts are posted by storms expected. By contest rules, seasonal forecasts remain unchanged if no entry is received for July. Other entrants have confirmed their earlier seasonal forecasts. Anyone who changed their seasonal forecast (one contestant actually) is shown with two lines instead of one, the first line includes the now-scored June monthly forecast replaced by "already scored." The Max US landfalling storms remain unchanged unless noted. You can still enter July, the penalties are discussed in the previous post with June scores.

 

 

FORECASTER ____________ SEASONAL FORECAST _____ JULY FCST ___________ MAX US LANDFALLING STORM

 

 

YanksFan27 _____________ 23 ____ 15 ____ 4 _______ -- ___ -- ___ -- _________ 135 kt .. FLLseFL .. 09-10

 

Metalicwx366 ____________ 20 ____ 12 ____ 4 _______ 3 ___ 1 ___ 0 _________ cat-3 .. TX .. .. 09-10

 

Stebo __________________ 20 ____ 11 ____ 5 _______ 3 ___ 2 ___ 0 _________ cat-4 .. AL ..... 09-12

 

My Weather Today _______ 19 ____ 10 ____ 5 _______ 4 ____ 2 ___ 1 _________ cat-5 .. sFL .. 09

 

hudsonvalley21 __________19 ____ 10 ____ 5 _______ -- ____ -- ___ -- _________ cat-3 .. wFL(TPA) .. 09-06

 

JonathanBelles (-4%) _____ 19 ____ 10 ____ 4 _______ 3 ____ 1 ___ 0 ________ cat-3 .. e FL .. 09-16

 

Ed Lizard _______________ 18 ____ 11 ____ 3 _______ 1.3 __ 0.5 ___ 0 _________ cat-3 .. swFL .. 09-03

 

TropicalAnalystwx13 ______ 18 ____ 10 ____ 4 _______ 2 ___ 1 ___ 0 _________ cat-3 .. e FL ... 09-05

 

Dunkman ______________ 18 _____ 9 ____ 4 _______ -- ___ -- ___ -- __________ cat-2 .. nwFL .. 09-14

 

Ellinwood ______________ 18 _____ 9 ____ 3.5 ______ 2.8 ___ 1 __ 0 _________

 

Weatherkid#27 _________ 18 _____ 8 ____ 4 ________ -- ___ -- ___ -- _________ cat-3 .. PNM nwFL .. 08-27

 

Pluffmud _______________ 18 _____ 7 ____ 4 _______ 3 ___ 1 ___ 0 __________ cat-3 .. ILM-NC .. 08-late

 

Inudaw ________________ 17.8 ____ 9.5 __ 4.2 _____ 2.7 __ 1.2 ___ 0.3  _________

 

U Thant ________________ 17.5 ___ 10.5 __ 6.5 _____  3 ___1.5 ___ 0.5 _________ cat-3 sw FL no date (added 6-21)

 

wxmeddler _____________ 17.4 ____ 9.8 __ 4.4 ______1.5 __ 0.4 __ 0 _________ cat-3 .. w LA .. 09-02

 

 

CONSENSUS ____________ 17.1 ___ 9.7 ___ 4 _______ 2.6 ___ 1 __ 0 __________ cat-3 .. e FL .. 09-08

 

 

Tropical Wx _____________ 17 ____ 10 ____ 6 _______ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 _________

 

Hurricaneman ___________ 17 ____ 10 ____ 6 _______ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 _________ cat-4 .. PBI-FL .. 08-22

 

bkviking ________________ 17 ____ 10 ____ 4 _______ 2 ___ 1 ___ 0 _________ cat-3 ... nw FL ..

 

Roger Smith _____________ 17 ____ 10 _____ 4 ______ 2 ___ 1 ___ 0 _________ cat-3 .. e NC .. 09-18

 

andyhb _________________ 17 _____ 9 _____ 5 ______ 3 ___ 1 ___ 1 _________ cat-3 .. e FL .. 08-24

 

wxmx __________________ 17 _____ 9 _____ 4 ______ 2 ___ 1 ___ 0 _________ cat-4 .. s TX

 

Chicago Storm (new entry) _ 17 _____ 9 _____ 4 ______ 3 ___ 0 ___ 0 _________ cat-3 .. StP FL 8-23 (6-30)

 

yoda ___________________ 17 _____ 8 _____ 3 ______ 2 ___ 1 ___ 0 _________ cat-3 .. se TX .. 09-16

 

CandymanColumbusGA ____ 16.8 ____ 7.4 ___ 3.1 _____ 2.3 __ 1.1 __ 0.1 ______ cat-3 .. PNS-FL .. 08-20

 

snowflake22 ___June ______ 16 _____ 9 _____ 4 ______ scored already_________ cat-2 .. seTX .. 07-25

snowflake22 ___July_______ 16 _____10 _____ 5 ______ 2 ___ 1 ___ 0 _________ cat-4 .. seFL .. 08-20 (6-22)

 

superstorm93 ____________ 16 _____ 9 _____ 4 ______ 3 ___ 1 ___ 0 _________ 125kt .. e FL .. 08-29 

 

icebreaker5221 __________ 16 _____ 8 _____ 3.5 _____ 2.5 __ 1 ___ 0 _________ cat-2 .. sw FL .. 10-03

 

boulderr ________________ 16 _____ 8 _____ 3 ______ 3 ___ 2 ___ 0 _________ cat-2 .. w LA .. 08-31

 

PSUBlizzicane2007 ________ 16 _____ 8 _____ 3 ______ 3 ___ 1 ___ 0 _________ cat-3 .. e FL .. 08-20

 

Southern Snow ___________ 15 ____ 11 _____ 5 ______ 2 ___ 1 ___ 0 _________ cat-4 .. seFL .. 08-14

 

Cyclogent (new entry) _____ 15 _____ 9 _____ 5 ______ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 __________ cat-3 GA Sep 13 (6-22)

 

NORMAL '93 to '12 _______ 14.5 ___ 7.6 ____ 3.4 _____ 1.5 __ 0.5 __ 0.1 ________

 

Free_Man _______________ 13 _____ 8 _____ 3.5 _____ -- ___ -- ___ -- _________ cat-2 .. c TX ..

 

Blizzard Warning _ (-4%) ________ no seasonal fcst yet ____ 4 ___ 2 ___ 0 

 

_________________________________________________________________________________________

 

Consensus for July is mean of 14th and 15th ranked forecasts of 28 received (normal not included). Seasonal consensus has been tweaked to reflect one change and two new entries.

 

Welcome new entrants, check the rules in post #1 to see how your seasonal forecast is scored, and for Cyclogent, thanks for all the monthly forecasts, you will have opportunities to update those each month around the end of the previous month, but I'll use them if you don't. Blizzard Warning, you can enter a seasonal forecast any time. To all entrants who have not entered the bonus (most severe US landfall) you have until either July 15th or the first named hurricane, whichever happens first, after that, no more forecasts in that category (although discuss all you want).

 

Check my work here, I'm hoping this is an accurate update for July.

 

I can still edit in the missing July forecasts. July is worth 15% and even at 00z today's -48% that's still 7.8% which is same as June basically, so if you make a good canecast you won't fall behind at all.

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  • 2 weeks later...
Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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July so far 1/0/0

 

Just some housekeeping on the rules ...

 

You can enter or amend your "maximum landfall" forecast until the end of Monday July 15th with a two-rank penalty for late entry. After that, no further entries are accepted in the bonus category. It's worth ten points so you're playing off nine points here.

 

After a discussion of late penalties on the temperature contest threads, I was inclined to change late penalties to some extent in this contest, and already announced a more lenient 1% per 6h for July first entries. This only affected two entries slightly in any case.

 

Looking ahead, August and October start mid-week and thus I will not be reducing the penalties there. September presents a challenge because of the Labor Day weekend but also being close to the probable heart of the seasonal action. Here's the amendment that I am proposing to use, it will be dependent on the situation that we find in place over the Labor Day weekend:

 

This was also posted in the rules section (post #1) as an update:

 

ADDED July 12th ... As announced in the thread, the July penalty rate was dropped for the first day to 1% per 6h late, due to timing of the weekend at end of June. The August penalty rate and the October penalty rate will be unchanged as with June. The September penalty rate will be situation-dependent as follows. There will be the Sunday and Monday of the Labor Day weekend at the start of September. Because this is the heart of the hurricane season, a large (75% reduction) penalty reduction would be inappropriate to this contest. If there are no new named storms between Aug 31 06z and Sep 3 06z there will be half-scale penalty points for late entries to 06z Sep 3 (meaning 1% every 2h late), followed by normal on 3rd to 06z 4th (meaning 1% per hour late), and twice normal rest of 4th (meaning 1% every 30 min late) to 06z then normal again to the normal expiry time at 10z 5th. At whatever point in time a named storm is declared in that reduced penalty time window 06z Aug 31 to Sep 3, even if it falls on August 31, penalties will then revert to normal and the catch-up on the 4th adjusted as necessary. This is to protect contestants who have entered in late August, and left for the weekend without the same information available. The penalty situation will be monitored and announced in real time during that phase of the contest.

 

Once again then, a reminder, August forecasts will be due on this thread by 06z August 1st and any seasonal updates you wish to make ... and penalties will be fully applied. I will post a reminder on the 24th or thereabouts and change the subhead in the thread title as well as posting a reminder in the tropical season thread. Good luck everyone.

 

 

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

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12Z GFS still has a disturbance, but never closes off a low, and GEFS individual members show no development of a 1008 mb or deeper low in the Atlantic tropics the next 15 days, so I dare say, my 1.25/0/0 prediction in the July Fantasy Tropics comtest will kick butt, although now I feel bad about hedging my one named storm with a 1.25. and my hurricanes with a 0.5

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

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Hurricaneman is going to beat me with his 1/0/0.

 

Outsmarted myself with the 1.25/0.5/0.  He doesn't seem as experienced as some of the other amateurs, but he was bold, and didn't hedge his forecast.  He went all in, and won the July pot.  The 1.25 I can understand and forgive myself, but if I was hedging, should have been 0.25 hurricanes...

 

12Z GFS still has the disturbance exiting Africa but doesn't develop it, GEFS shows no sub 1008 mb tropical lows in the Atlantic in July, so 1/0/0 will win.

 

I'll wait for some people to post in August and try to come in a little below the ballpark average, because it seems people are prone to optimism.

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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Your call still scores 14.4 out of 15 if no changes, and would only drop to 14.0 for 2/1/0, so no tears need be shed (gotta love those squared decimals). A reminder, our scoring system is max score minus error points which are average of error (per category) and error squared. So 1.3 from 1 gives an error of (.3 + .09) / 2 ... which is rounded to 0.2.

 

If anyone is planning a holiday soon, park your August forecasts before you head out, and avoid the penalty that could be crushing by the weekend of Aug 3-4 if that's your return date. No reduction of penalties for August due to the mid-week change of month. And August is worth 25% of the monthly portion. Don't forget to update your seasonal if you feel the need.

 

Consider this the formal "invitation" to post August forecasts and updates. Will post reminders in the tropical thread closer to the end of July.

 

Subject to edit, I will start the bidding at 5/3/2 and no seasonal update.

 

Note carefully ... forecasts should factor in the September portions of the history of any named storms from late August ... storms named in July carry that history for your July forecasts.

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