Ian Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Does anybody know if Wichita took a big hit? It seemed like a big deal while it was going on. This is all I could find: 2038 6 S WEST WICHITA SEDGWICK KS 3760 9746 UPROOTED TREES AND DOWNED POWER LINES FOR ABOUT A MILE NEAR 119TH STREET WEST AND JUST NORTH OF 55TH STREET SOUTH. UNKNOWN DAMAGE TO FARMSTEADS AS WELL. (ICT) ICT does a good job of showing off how the new warning process still needs a lot of work and probably wasn't well thought out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Ahh. Yea, we're at the lake right outside of town...then staying at the Motel 6. We too are at the Motel 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Witnessed the tornado that was just northwest of South Haven. Heard the tornado that briefly touched down southwest of Wellington (was back in the rain). I posted my pictures over in the New England forum. In the topic "A New England Weenie in the Plains" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Really tough to get handle on the severe weather scenario for Monday, but there is going to be a lot of CAPE, plenty of shear, and numerous storms over a large area. Could be some pretty wicked environments near the dryline/boundary intersection in OK (wherever that ends up) and in pockets further northeast into the Midwest. It would not be surprising to see a few significant tornado events, but its going to be difficult to figure out the locations of the highest risk with a lot of lead time. Regardless of the details, we will probably see another few hundred severe reports tomorrow. This has definitely been a unique and productive multi-day event across the central U.S. I agree with most of this. Maybe we should start a new thread tomorrow morning, considering we made it to 753 posts today. It looks like Texas will be much more in play tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 JoMo - I think it's about to be TOR warned again, but it looks to pass about 5-10 miles to your north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Still some rotation north of Columbus KS, not warned but damaging winds very likely there. Should be quite the light's show in SW Missouri over the next hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Hey JoMo, sorry this is off topic, but I just passed Joplin on I-44 and was wondering if that big building under construction right next to 44 is the new hospital? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Close to 85 MPH (74kts)...headed towards Ashbury, Waco, Neck City MO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 What a day. Saw two tornadoes on the first OK supercell. First tornado was going through Edmond and we saw the wedge that went through Falls and Carney. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 The 12z 4 km WRF-NMM (SPC run) goes bananas along the Red River near Gainesville tomorrow. I think one area is under 100+ updraft helicity for like 4 hours. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/spcprod/00/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Hope everyone's ready to do this again tomorrow. Once again, pretty stark contrast between the GFS and the NAM, this time in how they deal with sfc winds ahead of the front. However, given that both have a low along the Red River, I would expect some backing of the flow, especially just E/NE of the low. Indeed, the GFS is in general agreement with the EMC WRF from SPC once again on the sfc wind fields. Given that and today's STELLAR performance by the NAM, I'm going to opt with the GFS and a more significant threat tomorrow once again, only shifted a little SE, say from Tulsa-Grove OK down toward Hugo and Ardmore, probably shifting into AR/far SW MO in the evening. Oh, for FWIW, hourly max updraft helicity tomorrow night at 00z from the EMC WRF: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 What a day. Saw two tornadoes on the first OK supercell. First tornado was going through Edmond and we saw the wedge that went through Falls and Carney. Very nice catch today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 The 12z 4 km WRF-NMM (SPC run) goes bananas along the Red River near Gainesville tomorrow. I think one area is under 100+ updraft helicity for like 4 hours. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/spcprod/00/ im tempted to hug the crap out of that given the last two days tho that will likely lead to its failure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Heads up Golden City, MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Does anybody know if Wichita took a big hit? It seemed like a big deal while it was going on. This is all I could find: 2038 6 S WEST WICHITA SEDGWICK KS 3760 9746 UPROOTED TREES AND DOWNED POWER LINES FOR ABOUT A MILE NEAR 119TH STREET WEST AND JUST NORTH OF 55TH STREET SOUTH. UNKNOWN DAMAGE TO FARMSTEADS AS WELL. (ICT) Hey I found something about the Wichita area tornado: It was a 1/2 mile wide tornado with EF1 damage, and it lifted before getting to the airport and also before downtown Wichita. PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 940 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013 ...EF1 TORNADO HITS JUST SOUTHWEST OF WICHITA... AROUND 3:30 PM A TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN AROUND 5 MILES NORTH OF CLEARWATER AND TRACKED NORTHEAST FOR ABOUT 4.5 MILES BEFORE LIFTING ABOUT 2 MILES SOUTH OF THE WICHITA MID CONTINENT AIRPORT. TORNADO STRENGTH: EF1 PATH LENGTH: 4.6 MILES TORNADO WIDTH: 0.5 MILES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Ended up with one tor today, possibly two. Also a nice RFD hit and the previously mentioned great light show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Hey JoMo, sorry this is off topic, but I just passed Joplin on I-44 and was wondering if that big building under construction right next to 44 is the new hospital? yeah on I-44, that's the new Mercy Hospital being built. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 The NSSL WRF, which nailed today basically to the exact locations of the storms, also shows a long-lived supercell north of the Red River (basically going right through the Ardmore area) in Southern OK tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 I saw this as a re-tweet by Jim Cantore. Horizontal vortex on the side of the Carney tornado https://twitter.com/JonDopplerWX/status/336329267837272064/photo/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Heads up Golden City, MO. Emergency management reported a Cone tornado with that 'spin-up' in the line 2 miles east of Golden City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Really long day for a second day in a row, but we saw the wedge in Shawnee from a distance and almost saw the Carney storm but were at a bad angle.. was my first 'true' tornado with a nice condensation funnel as opposed to just a swirl so that was a cool accomplishment. Chasing in that area with the hills and trees was certainly not easy - don't know how some of you guys do it and make it seem so easy. Some of the pictures and videos coming out of these are just striking and the damage is really sobering. Also I can't get it out of my mind how close Norman came to a total disaster today had things been shifted 10 miles west... ugh. That makes 4 out of the last 5 years that somewhere in Norman has had a confirmed tornado with 2011 being the exception (and May 24th came perilously close to making it 5/5). Will take a while to go through my photos, I think. Here's another shot of the Shawnee storm from TornadoTitans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 I saw this as a re-tweet by Jim Cantore. Horizontal vortex on the side of the Carney tornado https://twitter.com/JonDopplerWX/status/336329267837272064/photo/1 This tornado at times reminded me of the Lawrence County, TN F5 tornado in 1998 with the motion and this type of appearance. Also, wow at that pic Jake posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Emergency management reported a Cone tornado with that 'spin-up' in the line 2 miles east of Golden City. It tracked right over the top of Golden City on radar. There's some rotation brewing south of the warned storms currently - it's tracking between Willard and Ash Grove, MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0100 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK/SOUTHEAST OK/SOUTHERN MO/NORTHWEST AR... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... YET ANOTHER ACTIVE/RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER DAY IS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO MIDWEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. A PROMINENT CENTRAL CONUS UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE A GENERAL EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A LEAD/CLOSED UPPER LOW PIVOTING OVER THE DAKOTAS/UPPER MIDWEST. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH/MODERATELY STRONG POLAR JET WILL EJECT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/OZARKS...WITH SEVERE TSTMS INCREASINGLY LIKELY BY PEAK HEATING AND CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A LINGERING UPPER LOW OVER THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST STATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ANOTHER DAY OF WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS OVER THE REGION...SOME OF WHICH MAY AGAIN BE STRONG OR SEVERE. ...SOUTHERN PLAINS/OZARKS/MIDDLE MS VALLEY... UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BROAD/MODERATELY STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...THE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO AGAIN BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON BENEATH AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE OZARKS AND LOWER/MIDDLE MS VALLEY. MIDDLE/UPPER 60S AND SOME LOWER 70S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE QUITE COMMON WITHIN A SPATIALLY BROAD WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM AN EASTERN DAKOTAS/MN SURFACE LOW SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR THE KANSAS CITY AREA/EASTERN KS AND WESTERN OK...AND AHEAD OF A DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST OK SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN NORTH TX/WEST-CENTRAL TX. OUTFLOW REMNANTS FROM OVERNIGHT/EARLY DAY CONVECTION ACROSS THE OZARKS/MIDDLE MS VALLEY WILL LIKELY BE A FACTOR INTO THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY AS A RENEWED FOCUS FOR SEVERE TSTM REDEVELOPMENT...WITH THE MOST AGGRESSIVE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND PERHAPS LOWER MO VALLEY JUST AHEAD OF THE TRUE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT. SEVERE TSTMS CAPABLE OF HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME TORNADO THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS EASTERN KS/NORTHERN MO INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...WITH A PERSISTENT/EAST-NORTHEASTWARD DEVELOPING SEVERE THREAT INTO THE EVENING. THAT SAID...THE MOST INTENSE/MOST PROBABLE SEVERE STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED A BIT FARTHER SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/OZARKS BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THIS INCLUDES A PORTION OF THE SYNOPTIC FRONT AND/OR OUTFLOW ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KS/SOUTHWEST MO...AREAS ROUGHLY PARALLEL AND NORTHWEST OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR...BUT ESPECIALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO MUCH OF THE MIDDLE PART OF OK /POTENTIALLY INCLUDING OKC METRO/...TO NEAR THE HEAT-AIDED SURFACE LOW AND SOUTHWARD-EXTENDING SHARPENING DRYLINE INTO THE WESTERN PART OF NORTH TX/WEST-CENTRAL TX. IN THIS CORRIDOR...MLCAPE VALUES ARE LIKELY TO EXCEED 2500-3000 J/KG BY AFTERNOON WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS OK AND WEST-CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL TX...AND PERHAPS INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST KS AND MO. WITH BROAD/MODERATELY STRONG CYCLONIC MID-HIGH LEVEL FLOW /50+ KT AT 500 MB/ OVER THE REGION...40-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL COINCIDE WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE EFFECTIVE FRONTAL ZONE AND/OR DRYLINE ACROSS OK/EXTREME NORTH TX INTO SOUTHEAST KS AND THE OZARKS. THE DEGREE OF SHEAR AND MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WILL FAVOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...AT LEAST THROUGH MID-EVENING OF THE CONVECTIVE CYCLE. VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS...WITH AN EARLY EVENING PEAK TORNADO THREAT /PERHAPS A COUPLE OF STRONG TORNADOES/ BOOSTED BY A NOCTURNALLY STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH ENLARGEMENT. ULTIMATELY...ONE OR MORE MCS/S SHOULD EVOLVE ALONG NOSE OF STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET OVER OK AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE OZARKS BY LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION WITH MCS DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING....ASIDE FROM A SEVERE HAIL AND CONTINUED TORNADO RISK...BUT ON AN INCREASINGLY ISOLATED BASIS INTO LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. ...UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES... MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SPEED MAX WILL PIVOT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER MS VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR ASCENT OVERSPREADING A RELATIVELY MOIST/UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER TO THE SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/MN SURFACE LOW EASTWARD TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. TWO GENERAL SCENARIOS FOR SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT SEEM PROBABLE THIS AFTERNOON. ONE BEING PARTS OF IA/UPPER MS VALLEY ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW AND UPPER JET EXIT REGION AS IT COINCIDES WITH THE SYNOPTIC FRONT. MEANWHILE...FARTHER EAST...PROPAGATION OF REMNANT OUTFLOW /EVEN SUBTLE REMNANTS INTO AFTERNOON/ ARE A PLAUSIBLE INFLUENCE FOR RENEWED TSTM DEVELOPMENT INTO A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. OVERALL...THIS INCLUDES POTENTIAL FOR SOME SUPERCELLS ASIDE FROM SUSTAINED LINEAR STRUCTURES...WITH BOUTS OF DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE HAIL AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. ...SOUTHEAST STATES/FL... THE AIRMASS SHOULD STRONGLY DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS NEAR AND WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE APPALACHIANS...WITH DIURNALLY INCREASING/INTENSIFYING TSTM DEVELOPMENT FURTHER AIDED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LOW OVER THE REGION. BOUTS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS GENERALLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. ..GUYER/MEAD.. 05/20/2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 We too are at the Motel 6. Maybe we'll see you before you head out tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Another great light show here in Ponca City, with a new back-building line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Another great light show here in Ponca City, with a new back-building line. You ever going to get to sleep so you can chase tomorrow...or well, today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 You ever going to get to sleep so you can chase tomorrow...or well, today?We're calling it a night here shortly. Good news is we're not too far from the target area for later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Incredible video from the Carney tornado.... Probably one of the best tornado videos of the year, unreal. With cloud and vortex rotation like that you know its violent for sure. I've seen lots of tornado videos of multiple vortices and rapid movement similar to that, but this instance is something different from the others; very freakish around 5:30 like a column of chaos. The way the vortices behave starting at 4:45 even remind me of the Henryville tornado that was shot close up. Likely end up being quite memorable. Here's another shot of the Shawnee storm from TornadoTitans. What is that at the top of the image? An entire tree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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