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weathafella

The early speculation on winter 2013-14

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Typhoon, super-typhoon, WHATEVER. The real point of the post was that Wipha will have a pretty large impact on the amplification of the pattern across the Pacific and down stream effects on U.S. 

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Typhoon, super-typhoon, WHATEVER. The real point of the post was that Wipha will have a pretty large impact on the amplification of the pattern across the Pacific and down stream effects on U.S. 

 

I'm just giving him the business ... it's all good.  

 

Yeah, agreed, ... the point of having the dose of latent heat into the downstream circulation having a correlation on the AB phase of the N. Pacific, is what's important.   We are seeing tendencies of -EPO in various operational and ensemble runs;  I am interested if that is directly plugged into this particular recurving typhoon, or if that is brought about by other aspects in the Pacific and the recurve may only add.   

 

That's the question for me.

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I'm just giving him the business ... it's all good.  

 

Yeah, agreed, ... the point of having the dose of latent heat into the downstream circulation has a correlation on the AB phase of the N. Pacific is what's important.   We are seeing tendencies of -EPO in various operational and ensemble runs;  I am interested if that is directly plugged into this particular recurving typhoon.  

 

Gotcha. Yea I guess I wouldnt go as far to say the Typhoon is the "cause" of the ridge/trough alignment you describe and what were seeing modeled.. Though I'd say probably not... BUT, a little constructive interference on what's there is certainly looking to play out as Sam's thread on the main forum illustrates real nicely. 

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Gotcha. Yea I guess I wouldnt go as far to say the Typhoon is the "cause" of the ridge/trough alignment you describe and what were seeing modeled.. Though I'd say probably not... BUT, a little constructive interference on what's there is certainly looking to play out as Sam's thread on the main forum illustrates real nicely. 

 

Exactly!  Constructive interference in this case.   I added to that original response, much in that same vein, wondering if preceding changes in the Pac domain would have had this western N/A ridge either way, and now we might just get some positive feedback.   

 

Tru dhat!   good questions --

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Sam has some of the best threads on this forum, awesome to read posts with examples and with sound current scientific research involved. Clearly a rising superstar in the field.

 

Aww thanks! This board taught me everything I know.

 

Wait, I'm a mod. Back on topic. It's going to snow this winter.

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Just remember to teach people and bring it down to a level they understand. Too many people discuss a topic with words they know will come across as a head scratcher but they do it anyways. Nobody cares about how smart you sound, those that understand he subject break it down to a level where everyone gets it. Mets in this subforum try to do that and Sam is right there breaking it down for everyone. Nice job bro.

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Just remember to teach people and bring it down to a level they understand. Too many people discuss a topic with words they know will come across as a head scratcher but they do it anyways. Nobody cares about how smart you sound, those that understand he subject break it down to a level where everyone gets it. Mets in this subforum try to do that and Sam is right there breaking it down for everyone. Nice job bro.

If you only knew how many times I had to go to Sam with a Dynamics I/II question lol.

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Just remember to teach people and bring it down to a level they understand. Too many people discuss a topic with words they know will come across as a head scratcher but they do it anyways. Nobody cares about how smart you sound, those that understand he subject break it down to a level where everyone gets it. Mets in this subforum try to do that and Sam is right there breaking it down for everyone. Nice job bro.

basic anthem of education, although sometimes underestimating the intelligence of your audience can ruin the message you are trying to portray. He has a good grasp on his audience here.

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Mike Ventrice on the main page verifying what some of us have said about recurves and effects on model performance, good stuff

 

 

 

"Thanks Sam,

 

Been watching this very closely. This happened last week and caused a huge drop in model skill performance, as the models flipped their predicted pattern by 180 degrees. This caused many models to perform poorly in the medium range, as shown in the plot below.

 

TSER_PMSL_MRDG_DAY7_ANOMCORR.gif

 

 

The models are showing this TC-extratropical interaction nicely, but it still worries me there could be some downstream errors translated across the U.S. I'm still in favor of the pattern shift, and have been for awhile'

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I don't think the TCs had as much of an effect as the recent model shift towards a cutoff NE of Hawaii. That got the ball rolling IMHO.

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I don't think the TCs had as much of an effect as the recent model shift towards a cutoff NE of Hawaii. That got the ball rolling IMHO.

I think the point he was making was models have a tough time handling TC's and downstream after effects , seen it in years past. IDK why. 

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I think the point he was making was models have a tough time handling TC's and downstream after effects , seen it in years past. IDK why. 

 

Well TCs aren't the easiest to model regardless. Nevermind how and if they develop, we also have to track them. That will cause chaos. I actually think models are decent once they develop. We can have a relatively good idea of where they track. Now the question afterwards is how the pattern evolves downstream. 

 

My gut tells me that the -EPO relaxes in November at some point as TC recurve lessens and just the overall base state may try to bring back lower heights near AK. However, it's obviously not a lock and ridging near AK or Aleutians may still continue.

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The effect of a recurving TC can be seen in the group velocity (so basically the wave envelope that amplifies the wave pattern). So when the phase pattern change is already in motion thanks to extratropical interactions in the central and eastern Pacific, the recurving TC basically acts reinforce and to increase the amplitude of the wave pattern. At the same time producing a more stable blocking pattern than would've been.

 

Just remember to teach people and bring it down to a level they understand. Too many people discuss a topic with words they know will come across as a head scratcher but they do it anyways. Nobody cares about how smart you sound, those that understand he subject break it down to a level where everyone gets it. Mets in this subforum try to do that and Sam is right there breaking it down for everyone. Nice job bro.

 

 

If you only knew how many times I had to go to Sam with a Dynamics I/II question lol.

 

Haha thanks guys.

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Well winter enthusiasts hope the euro sips is correct. It keeps ridging out by AK and western Canada and a -NAO It also has lower anomalies south of the Aleutians. I'm sort of struggling as to why it has an El Nino look given the PAC SST. Kind of a red flag to me as to how correct it is, but man if that's correct...that is one heck of a pattern here.

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Well winter enthusiasts hope the euro sips is correct. It keeps ridging out by AK and western Canada and a -NAO It also has lower anomalies south of the Aleutians. I'm sort of struggling as to why it has an El Nino look given the PAC SST. Kind of a red flag to me as to how correct it is, but man if that's correct...that is one heck of a pattern here.

 

 

Your description of the H5 pattern sounds drool worthy. Unfortunately it's hard to see the impetus for the maintenance of such an awesome pattern in the Pacific, but stranger things have happened I guess. Let's hope. Do they usually have any skill from this range?

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JB says cold through mid Nov, then warmer through mid Dec and then a fight b/w cold and warm-seems to be hinting at 93-94 type winter

 

lol, Take JB with a grain of salt

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Your description of the H5 pattern sounds drool worthy. Unfortunately it's hard to see the impetus for the maintenance of such an awesome pattern in the Pacific, but stranger things have happened I guess. Let's hope. Do they usually have any skill from this range?

 

Well they screwed pooch IIRC for 10-11 but did improve as we got closer. They did nail a warmer 11-12 and were off a bit for Dec and Jan last year. So yeah there is skill, but they aren't always correct. But I'd say there is good agreement based on the anomalies shown. At least better than 50/50 or so.

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The Pacific is a bit of a head scratcher....I wouldn't normally expect what is shown given the SST pattern and overall regime, but it won't back down.

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JB says cold through mid Nov, then warmer through mid Dec and then a fight b/w cold and warm-seems to be hinting at 93-94 type winter

ugh. the older i get the less i can stand him. 

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JB says cold through mid Nov, then warmer through mid Dec and then a fight b/w cold and warm-seems to be hinting at 93-94 type winter

I listened to JB's Saturday talk on weatherbell...He said a warm Dry October is a bad sign...1947 and 1963 had warm dry Octobers and the winters that followed were great...

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The Euro SIPS is definitely showing a blockbuster pattern...cold and snowy look. I'm skeptical of its trend in the N PAC, but hopefully it is correct. It looks very El Nino-ish.

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The Euro SIPS is definitely showing a blockbuster pattern...cold and snowy look. I'm skeptical of its trend in the N PAC, but hopefully it is correct. It looks very El Nino-ish.

Euro buys my September NPAC ssta as the harbinger. Maybe the lag makes it mean more than many think?

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The Euro SIPS is definitely showing a blockbuster pattern...cold and snowy look. I'm skeptical of its trend in the N PAC, but hopefully it is correct. It looks very El Nino-ish.

Maybe DT was correct with a weak Nino?

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Maybe DT was correct with a weak Nino?

 

Well the SIPS isn't forecasting a weak Nino.

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Well winter enthusiasts hope the euro sips is correct. It keeps ridging out by AK and western Canada and a -NAO It also has lower anomalies south of the Aleutians. I'm sort of struggling as to why it has an El Nino look given the PAC SST. Kind of a red flag to me as to how correct it is, but man if that's correct...that is one heck of a pattern here.

Could that be the look of a "cold-phase" El Nino, such as 2009-10 and 1972-3?

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