May 4-6 SE Soaker, Discussion & OBS....

[downeastnc]

1,000 j/kg.  That's a decent amount, isn't it?

 

 

Its not that decent but given the setup with good shear and insane mid level lapse rates its more than enough to get at least low end severe. 

[NCsandhills]

They just upped it to 1500 in parts

 

[buckeyefan1]

1,000 j/kg.  That's a decent amount, isn't it?

 

 

Here's a good checklist   http://www.crh.noaa.gov/sgf/?n=severe_weather_checklist_paper

[DaculaWeather]

1000 isn't much but like someone else said, throw in additional forcing mechanisms and it all adds up.

 

2000-5000 is high and there have been storms where 5000-8000 J/kg was estimated.

[jburns]

1000 isn't much but like someone else said, throw in additional forcing mechanisms and it all adds up.

 

2000-5000 is high and there have been storms where 5000-8000 J/kg was estimated.

Yep. When it gets to 5000 I start looking for a cave.

[Disc]

1000 j/kg is plenty to get storms going in a setup such as this with high shear and good lapse rates.

 

In addition to the link above, here's another good link:

http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/305/

[NCsandhills]

Thank you guys very much for the valuable info!  Going through the links now.  The lapse rates still kind of confuse me, I'll have to look more into that as well.  

 

I'm looking at the LL lapse rates on the SPC mesoscale analysis page, and I'm seeing values such as 7 and 7.5 in my area.  This is how quickly the rising air cools?  7.5 degrees celcius per...1,000 ft? m?  Do the higher values indicate faster rising warm pockets of air?  Sorry if these are dumb questions.

 

@Buckeye unfortunately your link wouldn't load for me

[Brick Tamland]

The rain has been pouring down all afternoon here at my office on Capital Blvd in Raleigh. We've had some thunder, too.

[downeastnc]

Thank you guys very much for the valuable info!  Going through the links now.  The lapse rates still kind of confuse me, I'll have to look more into that as well.  

 

I'm looking at the LL lapse rates on the SPC mesoscale analysis page, and I'm seeing values such as 7 and 7.5 in my area.  This is how quickly the rising air cools?  7.5 degrees celcius per...1,000 ft? m?  Do the higher values indicate faster rising warm pockets of air?  Sorry if these are dumb questions.

 

@Buckeye unfortunately your link wouldn't load for me

In simplest terms it means how fast the atmosphere cools down with height, the higher the value the quicker it cools down and the more unstable the air mass is. SW NC has some pretty impressive lapse rates right now which you would expect under a strong ULL. The ? beside the different values on the SPC meso page tells you how the formulas are gotten and what they mean.

 

If the sun comes out for several hrs like it appears to be doing then by 4-5 things could get really interesting especially with the hail, could see some areas getting several inches of hail.

[NCWX]

Eastern NC got screwed.  Nothing but a few sprinkles.  This sucks. 

[Jon]

I figured 1,000 was enough.  I didn't know that about our severe, though.  What is ours driven by?

high wind shear. CAPE helps definitely but we definitely don't get the kind of levels seen in the central states often, so we have to rely on other factors to mix together in the pot. It should be covered in the links people supplied, especially "theweatherprediction", hands down my favorite wx site for info. 

 

 

Thank you guys very much for the valuable info!  Going through the links now.  The lapse rates still kind of confuse me, I'll have to look more into that as well.  

 

I'm looking at the LL lapse rates on the SPC mesoscale analysis page, and I'm seeing values such as 7 and 7.5 in my area.  This is how quickly the rising air cools?  7.5 degrees celcius per...1,000 ft? m?  Do the higher values indicate faster rising warm pockets of air?  Sorry if these are dumb questions.

 

@Buckeye unfortunately your link wouldn't load for me

You're going to be interested in around a 8-9 value on that map for 0-3km and around a 7 or so for 3-6km. I think it starts shading read at 8C. For instance 0-3km lapse rate is in the value of C/km. It's essentially a measure of how quickly the temp is dropping with height into the atmosphere. Anything close to 8 or 9 is considered steep.

 

For example, if the temperature at 3 km is -3 C, and the temperature at 4 km is -10 C, the lapse rate in the 3-4 km layer is 7 C / km.

You'll see the mid level lapse rates are super high over parts of western NC and SC right now, but without moisture, it doesn't mean much.

[Jon]

In simplest terms it means how fast the atmosphere cools down with height, the higher the value the quicker it cools down and the more unstable the air mass is. SW NC has some pretty impressive lapse rates right now which you would expect under a strong ULL. The ? beside the different values on the SPC meso page tells you how the formulas are gotten and what they mean.

 

If the sun comes out for several hrs like it appears to be doing then by 4-5 things could get really interesting especially with the hail, could see some areas getting several inches of hail.

you always beat me to the punch.

 

You're better at explaining things anyway. Crossing my fingers for some hail today, that would be nice to see...haven't seen hail since the 1990's.

[NCsandhills]

In simplest terms it means how fast the atmosphere cools down with height, the higher the value the quicker it cools down and the more unstable the air mass is. SW NC has some pretty impressive lapse rates right now which you would expect under a strong ULL. The ? beside the different values on the SPC meso page tells you how the formulas are gotten and what they mean.

 

If the sun comes out for several hrs like it appears to be doing then by 4-5 things could get really interesting especially with the hail, could see some areas getting several inches of hail.

 

Very cool, thanks.  I was thinking that about the hail because from what I heard earlier it's still quite cold in the mid-levels...screams hail to me, lol.

 

high wind shear. CAPE helps definitely but we definitely don't get the kind of levels seen in the central states often, so we have to rely on other factors to mix together in the pot. It should be covered in the links people supplied, especially "theweatherprediction", hands down my favorite wx site for info. 

 

 

You're going to be interested in around a 8-9 value on that map for 0-3km and around a 7 or so for 3-6km. I think it starts shading read at 8C. For instance 0-3km lapse rate is in the value of C/km. It's essentially a measure of how quickly the temp is dropping with height into the atmosphere. Anything close to 8 or 9 is considered steep.

 

For example, if the temperature at 3 km is -3 C, and the temperature at 4 km is -10 C, the lapse rate in the 3-4 km layer is 7 C / km.

You'll see the mid level lapse rates are super high over parts of western NC and SC right now, but without moisture, it doesn't mean much.

 

So in central/southern NC right now it looks like there is plenty of moisture and 7.5 values for the LL lapse rates.  And the CAPE is still at 1,500 for that same area.  Shear is maxing out at 40kts up near GSO and near FAY.  So all these ingredients can still work together to form low end severe?  Or just regular ol' storms?  Since all the ingredients seem to be there, just none of them are extreme?

 

Can't thank you guys enough for the info.  You're helping me tremendously.

[NCWX]

Is it just me or is this storm dying off rapidly.  Seems like a lot of dry air is going to the heart of it today. 

[kvegas-wx]

Some wicked looking clouds coming in just south of kernersville. Sunlight combined with blue sky and thunderstorm really putting on a show!

[buckeyefan1]

Thank you guys very much for the valuable info!  Going through the links now.  The lapse rates still kind of confuse me, I'll have to look more into that as well.  

 

I'm looking at the LL lapse rates on the SPC mesoscale analysis page, and I'm seeing values such as 7 and 7.5 in my area.  This is how quickly the rising air cools?  7.5 degrees celcius per...1,000 ft? m?  Do the higher values indicate faster rising warm pockets of air?  Sorry if these are dumb questions.

 

@Buckeye unfortunately your link wouldn't load for me

Hmmmm....not sure why, but here it is again with a different formatted link..........   http://www.crh.noaa.gov/sgf/?n=severe_weather_checklist_paper

[Brick Tamland]

Another heavy downpour and thunder in north Raleigh on Capital Blvd now.

[Jon]

Very cool, thanks.  I was thinking that about the hail because from what I heard earlier it's still quite cold in the mid-levels...screams hail to me, lol.

 

 

So in central/southern NC right now it looks like there is plenty of moisture and 7.5 values for the LL lapse rates.  And the CAPE is still at 1,500 for that same area.  Shear is maxing out at 40kts up near GSO and near FAY.  So all these ingredients can still work together to form low end severe?  Or just regular ol' storms?  Since all the ingredients seem to be there, just none of them are extreme?

 

Can't thank you guys enough for the info.  You're helping me tremendously.

Low end severe. A 2% tornado probability was for the area already, but the main threat is hail. They don't mention tor development and I'd have to agree. The heating over central/peidmont NC should generate some decent instability, I already see a little blip of 2,000j/kg CAPE over southern NC near Wilmington. It just depends on if we get moisture... We'll see.

 

Since it's on topic with lapse rates & shear, From NWS RAH:

 

SEVERE THREAT:

MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BECOME MORE

FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION THIS AFT/EVE WEST OF HWY 1 AS

SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AROUND THE

NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW. LOW AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES

ON THE ORDER OF 7-8 C/KM IN THE PRESENCE OF 35-45 KT DEEP-LAYER

SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD SUPERCELLS WITH A PRIMARY

THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. DAMAGING WIND CANNOT BE RULED OUT WHERE

MID-LEVEL DRYING AND STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTRIBUTE TO

RELATIVELY HIGHER DCAPE...PRIMARILY IN THE WESTERN SANDHILLS AND SW

PIEDMONT.

[NCsandhills]

Low end severe. A 2% tornado probability was for the area already, but the main threat is hail. They don't mention tor development and I'd have to agree. The heating over central/peidmont NC should generate some decent instability, I already see a little blip of 2,000j/kg CAPE over southern NC near Wilmington. It just depends on if we get moisture... We'll see.

 

Since it's on topic with lapse rates & shear, From NWS RAH:

 

SEVERE THREAT:

MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BECOME MORE

FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION THIS AFT/EVE WEST OF HWY 1 AS

SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AROUND THE

NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW. LOW AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES

ON THE ORDER OF 7-8 C/KM IN THE PRESENCE OF 35-45 KT DEEP-LAYER

SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD SUPERCELLS WITH A PRIMARY

THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. DAMAGING WIND CANNOT BE RULED OUT WHERE

MID-LEVEL DRYING AND STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTRIBUTE TO

RELATIVELY HIGHER DCAPE...PRIMARILY IN THE WESTERN SANDHILLS AND SW

PIEDMONT.

 

Interesting.  I see the 2,000j/kg too, looks like in between Fayetteville and Wilmington.  There seems to be moisture there, but what I'm going by is the following map...I hope I'm reading it right.  But we will see. I have to drive out to Carthage (western Sandhills) and be there until 8PM, so maybe I'll see some hail. Might have to make my first call to the NWS for a storm spotter report! Ahaha.

 

[Brick Tamland]

Sun is coming out here. I wonder if that will create more instability.

[Cold Rain]

Sun is coming out here. I wonder if that will create more instability.

You seriously wondering that, Brick?

[NCWX]

It will be sunny the rest of the week in NC.  Really... I thought this was gonna be a major event for all of NC, SC, GA, TN, and VA  seems like its been very hit or miss. My rain total since Friday has been only .19   QPF Maps were showing by tonight 2.10  And like last weeks storm. 3 inches were possible, we got  0.69.   

[downeastnc]

It will be sunny the rest of the week in NC.  Really... I thought this was gonna be a major event for all of NC, SC, GA, TN, and VA  seems like its been very hit or miss. My rain total since Friday has been only .19   QPF Maps were showing by tonight 2.10  And like last weeks storm. 3 inches were possible, we got  0.69.   

Wouldnt go that far yet still have a strong ULL to our west so all it takes is one training band to develop and we get our 1-2". Tuesday has always been the best chance day for us for this event but totals will be hit and miss some folks will get 2" others not so much will have to wait and see....anything can happen in eastern NC on a SE flow though.

[Met1985]

This is of the Pigeon Yesterday afternoon.

 

[Met1985]

[DaculaWeather]

Rainfall totals: http://www.daculaweather.com/4_nws_rfc.php

You can see some of the training bands in NC, and also see where the upslope rains fell. If you go back a couple of weeks to a month, it's amazing how much rain has fallen in some areas.

[SN_Lover]

the news just showed lookout shoals lake and there were homes underwatrer alongside the lake with docks floating away.

[HKY_WX]

Had tons of water in hky last night. probably estimating 3 to 5 inches.

[BIG FROSTY]

0.79 so far

[calculus1]

Had tons of water in hky last night. probably estimating 3 to 5 inches.

 

Brandon, I had 3.74 inches at my house (for the yesterday/today total) in the Viewmont area.  I think areas slightly to the west had more.